RSS

Distri­bu­tion of cost-effectiveness

TagLast edit: 22 Apr 2023 16:36 UTC by Pablo

Not all causes are equally cost-effective. In fact, the distribution of cost-effectiveness is heavy-tailed: some causes are thousands of times more cost-effective than others.

Such variation in cost-effectiveness in part follows from the existence of immense global inequality, which implies that many people in the world suffer from problems that could be solved with only small amounts of money. Consider, for instance, a developing world charity that spends $20 per person on a surgery to prevent blindness, compared to a charity that spends $40,000 per person to provide guide dogs to blind people in the United States. But even charities that think globally are far from equal in their abilities to turn the donations they receive into real improvements in people’s lives.

Within a given focus area, we can understand variation in cost-effectiveness as arising from both underlying variation in the impact of the interventions that charities carry out and variation in how much charities spend to carry them out. For instance, the cost-effectiveness of a charity that combats malaria will depend both on whether it distributes medication or bednets and on how much wasteful spending it engages in. People in the effective altruism community tend to believe that the former source of variation is more significant than the latter.

One general finding is that, in the long run, the cost-effectiveness of additional donations to many charities will diminish as the amount they have already received grows. Because of this phenomenon, we would expect the cost-effectiveness of charities to become more and more equal in a world where donations were based on cost-effectiveness.

Further reading

Caviola, Lucius et al. (2020) Donors vastly underestimate differences in charities’ effectiveness, Judgment and Decision Making , vol. 15, pp. 509–516.
Shows that lay people estimate that the variation in charity cost-effectiveness is limited, whereas experts estimate them to be much larger.

Daniel, Max (2020) Collection of existing material on ‘impact being heavy-tailed’, Effective Altruism Forum, June 26.
An annotated bibliography of writings related to the distribution of cost-effectiveness.

Ord, Toby (2019) The moral imperative toward cost-effectiveness in global health, in Hilary Greaves & Theron Pummer (eds.) Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 29–36.
Discusses the moral relevance of variations in cost-effectiveness.

Tomasik, Brian (2014) Why charities usually don’t differ astronomically in expected cost-effectiveness, Essays on Reducing Suffering, January 5 (updated 16 September 2017).
Argues that the variation in cost-effectiveness of the charity sector isn’t as significant as some people believe.

Related entries

cause prioritization | cost-effectiveness | impact assessment | intervention evaluation | ITN framework

Data on how much solu­tions differ in effectiveness

Benjamin_Todd17 Feb 2023 20:22 UTC
101 points
11 comments3 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Effec­tive­ness is a Con­junc­tion of Multipliers

Thomas Kwa25 Mar 2022 18:44 UTC
258 points
34 comments4 min readEA link

Un­rav­el­ling the Mys­tery of Distri­bu­tions of Im­pact: Power law or Log­nor­mal?

Michael22 Apr 2023 9:40 UTC
30 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Char­ity En­trepreneur­ship’s re­search into large-scale global health interventions

CE16 May 2023 11:51 UTC
77 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Car­ing about excellence

Owen Cotton-Barratt22 Jul 2024 14:24 UTC
16 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Sav­ing lives in nor­mal times is bet­ter to im­prove the longterm fu­ture than do­ing so in catas­tro­phes?

Vasco Grilo🔸20 Apr 2024 8:37 UTC
11 points
25 comments9 min readEA link

Why Char­i­ties Usu­ally Don’t Differ Astro­nom­i­cally in Ex­pected Cost-Effectiveness

Brian_Tomasik16 Sep 2017 10:40 UTC
106 points
6 comments28 min readEA link
(reducing-suffering.org)

Cri­tique of the no­tion that im­pact fol­lows a power-law distribution

Sarah Weiler14 Mar 2024 10:28 UTC
88 points
89 comments18 min readEA link

Pareto-Distributed Op­por­tu­ni­ties Im­ply Isoe­las­tic Utility

ABlank30 Mar 2024 20:23 UTC
44 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of Shrimp Welfare Pro­ject’s Hu­mane Slaugh­ter Initiative

Vasco Grilo🔸6 Oct 2024 8:25 UTC
65 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Am­bi­tious Im­pact’s cost-effec­tive­ness es­ti­mates sug­gest the best in­ter­ven­tions in an­i­mal welfare are much more cost-effec­tive than the best in global health and de­vel­op­ment?

Vasco Grilo🔸11 Oct 2024 16:32 UTC
25 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing the neart­erm risk of hu­man ex­tinc­tion is not as­tro­nom­i­cally cost-effec­tive?

Vasco Grilo🔸9 Jun 2024 8:02 UTC
20 points
37 comments8 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of buy­ing or­ganic in­stead of barn eggs

Vasco Grilo🔸14 Jun 2024 16:29 UTC
23 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Pur­chase fuzzies and utilons separately

EliezerYudkowsky27 Dec 2019 2:21 UTC
120 points
4 comments5 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Coun­ter­pro­duc­tive Altru­ism: The Other Heavy Tail

Vasco Grilo🔸1 Mar 2023 9:58 UTC
186 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(onlinelibrary.wiley.com)

Adquira sen­ti­men­tos calorosos e útilons separadamente

AE Brasil / EA Brazil20 Jul 2023 18:48 UTC
4 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Cor­po­rate cam­paigns for chicken welfare are 10,000 times as effec­tive as GiveWell’s Max­i­mum Im­pact Fund?

Vasco Grilo🔸28 Jul 2022 8:22 UTC
78 points
19 comments11 min readEA link

Longterm cost-effec­tive­ness of Founders Pledge’s Cli­mate Change Fund

Vasco Grilo🔸14 Sep 2022 15:11 UTC
36 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempere18 Feb 2022 20:39 UTC
94 points
8 comments12 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness dis­tri­bu­tions, power laws and scale invariance

Stijn18 Mar 2021 19:27 UTC
30 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] When should the in­verse-var­i­ance method be ap­plied to dis­tri­bu­tions?

Vasco Grilo🔸14 Jun 2022 14:33 UTC
5 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

How to de­ter­mine dis­tri­bu­tion pa­ram­e­ters from quantiles

Vasco Grilo🔸30 May 2022 15:20 UTC
23 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolan31 Oct 2022 14:31 UTC
118 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

My notes on: Search­ing for outliers

Vasco Grilo🔸3 Jun 2022 16:19 UTC
9 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

List of ways in which cost-effec­tive­ness es­ti­mates can be misleading

saulius20 Aug 2019 18:05 UTC
234 points
37 comments13 min readEA link

[Question] On GiveWell’s es­ti­mates of the cost of sav­ing a life

aaron_mai1 Oct 2020 10:22 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

The value of money go­ing to differ­ent groups

Toby_Ord16 May 2017 13:11 UTC
22 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

【練習問題】インパクトの差

EA Japan25 Jul 2023 6:29 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Com­par­ing Health In­ter­ven­tions in Colom­bia and Nige­ria: Which are More Effec­tive and by How Much?

Alejandro Acelas24 Mar 2023 13:48 UTC
49 points
1 comment12 min readEA link
No comments.