Manifold Markets is a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation.
Tutorial
A video tutorial is also available[1].
Mana (M$) is the currency of Manifold. Users start with M$500 for free. M$ can be redeemed as a charitable donation at M$100:$1 or purchased at the same exchange rate
Markets are the unit of prediction on Manifold. Creating a market costs M$50, which is then used as a liquidity pool to allow users to trade on the market.
Most markets are yes/no (e.g. ‘Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?‘[2]). Users buy ‘shares’ at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you’re correct, or M$0 if you’re wrong.
Note that you can embed Manifold Markets in foum posts and wiki entries!
Example:
Here’s an example market[2]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:
Below, we’ve spent M$10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 YES shares. If the market resolves yes, we’ll net back M$53 for our M$10 investment:
We can also click on the title to see more information, make larger bets, and sell our shares (at their current price as determined by the market’s aggregate bet):
Funding
As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,[3] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[4]
Further reading
Patel, Dwarkesh (2022) 27: Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions markets & better governance, Lunar Society, May 5.
External links
Manifold Markets. Official website.
Manifold Markets. Official tutorial
Above the Fold. Blog.
Related entries
forecasting | prediction markets | list of tools for collaborative truth seeking
- ^
Manifold Markets Tutorial, Victoria Brook (2022)
- ^
Manifold Markets, Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
- ^
Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.
- ^
Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.
I read the New York Times article and I am a long time fan of prediction markets. But the article raised the question of wealthy people distorting predictions in order to get the outcomes they desire.
Does anyone have any remedies for this challenge?