Thanks for your response and patience very much.
Actually, this is not just for persuading others, it’s actually persuading myself. I a CS outsider, and I really don’t understand why many people are confident that AGI will be created someday. 2.Of course predictions may not be accurate, and it’s a personal view. But I think there must be some reasons why you predict AGI is 50% in 2040, not 10%.
I’m sorry if I posted a dumb question here, but I don’t think it is. Are there any problems with the question?