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Basically, you can treat fraction of worlds as equivalent to probability, so there is little apparent need to change anything if MWI turns out to be true.
This is not about us. A bunch of retail investors just completely lost their shirts due to, I don’t know what exactly, but let’s say “apparent bad behavior”. If possible, we should try to provide some kind of support to them.
Is there any way that could possibly be true, given the events of the last few days?
Jesus. I hope it doesn’t come to that in this case.
Or we should try to quickly move any money made in crypto into the S&P. I don’t think this is about patient vs. urgent philanthropy per se.
What happens if the money was donated to a charity that is subject to clawbacks, but the charity then spent the money? Do they try to claw it back from the suppliers or employees or whoever? Can it trigger a cascade of bankruptcies?
Got any better ideas?
My understanding is Dustin has already diversified out of Meta to some large degree (though I have no insider information).
Stipulate, for the sake of the argument, that Lukas et al. actually disagree with the doomers about various points. What would follow from that?
Good point, I didn’t think of that.
I strongly agree with your comment, but I want to point out in defense of this trend that nuclear weapons policy seems to be unusually insulated from public input and unusually likely to be highly sensitive/not good to discuss in public.
I think I am missing something here. Does the book purport to mention every collapse? Why does WWOTF need to mention the Bronze Age Collapse?
This does sound like fun.
Maybe they should, maybe the shouldn’t, but I don’t think Gavin was saying such things should be encouraged. I think he was saying that there should be some kind of response if such leaks happen.
I appreciated the link to the hardscrapple frontier, which I had not heard of, FWIW.
Is the argument here that nobody should criticize effective altruism on websites that are not EA forum, because then outsiders might get a negative impression? And if so, what kind of impression would outsiders get if they knew about this proposed rule?
An interesting thought, but I think this overlooks the fact that wealth is heavy tailed. So it is (probably) higher EV to have someone with a 10% shot at their tech startup getting huge than one person with a 100% chance of running a succesful plumbing company.
This is a great comment, you may want to consider making it a top level post on the forum so more people will see it.
A lot of people got into EA after reading a book, and a lot of people find new topics to investigate by reading newspaper articles.
A question about this—do you work at the University of Canterbury now, or will you be supervising these students remotely?