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NunoSempere

Karma: 13,024

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I’m also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.


I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com /​ nunosempere.com/​blog rather than on this forum, because:

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I’m particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.


My career has been as follows:


You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://​​nunosempere.com/​​.newsletter/​​>, or subscribe to my posts’ RSS here: <https://​​nunosempere.com/​​blog/​​index.rss>

Can GPT-3 pro­duce new ideas? Par­tially au­tomat­ing Robin Han­son and others

NunoSempereJan 16, 2023, 3:05 PM
82 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Novem­ber and De­cem­ber 2022

NunoSempereJan 9, 2023, 11:16 AM
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

COVID-19 in ru­ral Balochis­tan, Pak­istan: Two in­ter­views from May 2020

NunoSempereDec 16, 2022, 11:33 AM
22 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

List of past fraud­sters similar to SBF

NunoSempereNov 28, 2022, 6:31 PM
114 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Some data on the stock of EA™ funding

NunoSempereNov 20, 2022, 12:45 PM
62 points
14 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempereNov 15, 2022, 5:31 PM
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

Track­ing the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempereNov 9, 2022, 4:10 PM
76 points
5 comments10 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

FTX Cri­sis. What we know and some fore­casts on what will hap­pen next

Nathan YoungNov 8, 2022, 7:16 PM
368 points
321 comments3 min readEA link

Metafore­cast late 2022 up­date: GraphQL API, Charts, bet­ter in­fras­truc­ture be­hind the scenes.

NunoSempereNov 4, 2022, 5:56 PM
39 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Brief eval­u­a­tions of top-10 billionnaires

NunoSempereOct 21, 2022, 3:29 PM
81 points
66 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2022.

NunoSempereOct 12, 2022, 4:37 PM
23 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempereOct 10, 2022, 2:42 PM
33 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk up­date Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempereOct 3, 2022, 6:10 PM
262 points
52 comments16 min readEA link

$5k challenge to quan­tify the im­pact of 80,000 hours’ top ca­reer paths

NunoSempereSep 23, 2022, 11:32 AM
126 points
14 comments6 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempereSep 12, 2022, 11:19 AM
111 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2022.

NunoSempereSep 10, 2022, 8:59 AM
29 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempereSep 2, 2022, 9:37 AM
52 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempereAug 26, 2022, 10:03 AM
47 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

A con­cern about the “evolu­tion­ary an­chor” of Ajeya Co­tra’s re­port on AI timelines.

NunoSempereAug 16, 2022, 2:44 PM
75 points
40 comments5 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2022

NunoSempereAug 8, 2022, 8:03 AM
30 points
0 comments14 min readEA link