One other random point: it strikes me as easier to filter college students for altruism, ambition, talent, etc. than for high school students.
Unrelated EA Forum feature request: It would be helpful to be able to filter the list of all posts to posts I have already upvoted and posts I have already strongly upvoted. This combined with date and tag filtering would make it really easy to re-find content. :)
I think a moderate amount of this work has actually already been done—I’d be happy to help connect you.
Three not particularly important or related thoughts from having thought about SHIC a fair amount:
One of the hardest parts of high school outreach I think will be getting people to continue to be engaged over their college career (assuming they go to college), which is four years of substantial chance of value drift before any direct impact happens. Whereas recruiting from college, the distance is much less.
It seems like the typical “good student” high schoolers optimize a lot for having authority figures like them, which could easily lead them to endorse—even enthusiastically—EA views they don’t end up holding all that strongly. This could skew outreach and the perception of success.
I think one of the best things about hearing about EA pre-college is it would let you set up your college plan (e.g., major, internships) in an EA-directed way, which I think is one of the most useful things to do for an EA-career, as opposed to having to make some sort of more difficult within-college or post-college transition. (On reflection with full hindsight, I’m not sure what I would’ve done differently or how I would’ve had more impact if I had heard of EA in high school rather than halfway through college, but I certainly did feel off-guard in that respect.)
Definitely seems like this could be empirically tested with survey research. The EA Survey data could also be useful, though you’d also want to examine non-EA attitudes and variations.
All hiring and other activities at Rethink Priorities is continuing as normal without any noticeable affect from COVID-19.
One source of information for this might be the 2019 EA Survey, which analyzed self-reported data for about 2500 EAs. Our prior analysis found that EAs in the survey reported total donations of $16.1M USD in 2018.
We didn’t report raw income data, but it looks like the sum of self-reported annual income in our EA Survey sample is $116M USD.
Of course this is likely a large underestimate of the total financial firepower of EA …for one, it ignores OpenPhil, which donates tens of millions of dollars a year and has the capacity to donate much more
...for two, there are probably another several tens of millions in annual donations by high net worth individuals who affiliate with EA somewhat but don’t fill out the EA Survey, though if you keep looking into this eventually though you will get into difficult debates about who counts as EA or not.
Thanks! I really appreciate this level of transparency and thoughtfulness.
Great power war/conflict?
If you are launching (or know about) a project that you believe may have a strong EA impact and has room for more funding, I’d be happy to hear about it.
I’d be bad at my job if I didn’t mention that Rethink Priorities is looking for money ;)
Some reason to prefer an individual donor like me rather than institutional donors like Open Phil, LTFF, EA Grants, and GiveWell
Worth nothing that one reason as an individual donor to support an organization that benefits from institutional giving is that there are only so many of these institutions and they’re frequently willing to only be so much of an organization’s budget. This can actually allow an individual to act almost as a 1:1 match by unlocking more institutional funding.
Not sure what you mean… Number of long-term relationships? Number of dates? Number of times I’ve talked with a cute non-EA girl about EA and perceived it as going well? Regardless not sure I’d be comfortable revealing that info in public.
I just want to add my experience is that “Maybe I get off the EA Forum, go outside and tell that cute girl I pass every day all about Peter Singer’s drowning child thought experiment” has worked really well for me so far.
Worth noting there are a lot of important political questions that can be lobbied on that aren’t part of the traditional blue vs. red axis (e.g., cage-free legislation, increasing foreign aid)
How much time do you spend forecasting? (Both explicitly forecasting on Metaculus and maybe implicitly doing things related to forecasting, though the latter I suspect is currently a full-time job for you?)
1.) This is amazing, thank you. Strongly upvoted—I learned a lot.
2.) Can we have an AMA with JGalt where he teaches us how to read all the news?
What do you think you do that other forecasters don’t do?
FYI—Your link to Foretell is broken
What should a typical EA who is informed on the standard forecasting advice do if they actually want to become good at forecasting? What did you do to hone your skill?
This was a lot of good discussion of epistemics, and I highly valued that, but I was also hoping for some hot forecasting tips. ;) I’ll try asking the question differently.
What do EAs get wrong about forecasting?