(written on my phone, apologies for the poor formatting and lack of hyperlinks!)
this is AWESOME! so glad i’m seeing this become a reality :D
i think one of the central things you might work on is developing out rationales. a number only gets ppl so far — understanding WHY the market is at a certain percentage is also super helpful. this seems like one of the central aspects of what makes forecasting useful. it also seems like a great way to monetize forecasting as a skill, which you mentioned is one of your goals.
[edit: to clarify, i’m proposing that you could hire forecasters to write reports/rationales on specific topics. forecasters get paid for their skills, you get longer-form content, consumers get actionable, context-laden info > a single number. in terms of figuring out where the money’s coming from…]
some ideas for funding:
seems like you’re giving the prediction market companies free advertising??? maybe ask them to pay or smth…
LTFF
ads (i don’t recommend)
paid subscription option, maybe/especially to get the rationales or something
sponsorships — might function similar to ads, except partnering with specific companies who’re interested in capturing the attention of ppl who read BRT. for example, quant finance. dm me if you want more help/info on this one.
ask for donations from readers
uhh idk i ran out of ideas ngl
again, i think this is really really cool and i’m in full support! :)
I’d say I’m a newcomer to EA. I’d also say I’m in Phase 1. In other words, I’d say I’m an infatuated newcomer reading a post meant to warn newcomers against infatuation.
I agree with Helen’s overall argument, and I think it applies to most ideologies, movements, passions, and ideas. Overcommitment leads to burnout and backlash and eventual disillusionment — people shouldn’t become overly infatuated with anything.
I have a feeling of something being subtly off, and the thing that feels wrong is the tone of this post.
Before I clarify my critique, I want to strongly affirm my agreement with Helen’s thesis and thank her (as well as those she thanks) for writing and editing this post.
This post feels condescending. I feel like a child being instructed on how to digest an ideology that I’m told is far too complicated for little me to explore on my own. I know that wasn’t at all Helen’s purpose; I know she had entirely good intentions. However, the post feels like it was written and edited exclusively by people who are intimately related to the EA movement, and never given to an inexperienced layman to digest.
I’m merely following Helen’s own instructions — I felt something subtly off, and I’m pointing it out. I hope those reading my comment realize that my goal is not to merely critique Helen, but also to inform future writers of future posts to keep in mind the importance of including the voices of the newcomers in posts directed at those newcomers.
-Munn