Weaver

Karma: 195

Weaver is a Rationalist and EA writer and a full time active duty Army Officer. He is a part of Philly Rats and EA Philly(barely) and you can read all of his writing through his author website: http://storyweaver.quest/ (links to Royal Road fiction)

Sect Leader is an attempt to shovel EA principles into a fantasy narrative(a nod to HPMOR), everything else is just for fun.

I’m founding two companies:

Riverfolk Publishing which is an indie imprint, initially for myself. We’ve expanded to four authors and our first book launches in September.

Red Cell EA, which is an EA focused consultancy. This is still in the planning stages.

Weaver May 1, 2023, 1:53 PM
3 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Could Ukraine retake Crimea?
Military guy here. Things that we always consider are the most likely course of action and the most deadly course of action that the adversary can take.
Since this is a trench warfare with the added emphasis of drones, the most likely course of action is that things won’t change much and that battle lines will remain stagnant. This is with the additional point of contention that Ukraine right now is going through the most incredible logistical supply chain process that has ever happened, and Russia kinda keeps losing generals due to stupid OPSEC losses. Of course there will be a spring offensive and counter offensive, and I would favor Ukraine in this manner because it’s their territory, etc, and a point of national pride.
The other problem is the enemys most deadly course of action which is to launch CBRN type weapons back at the Ukrainians. Russians have been entrenched in Crimea for years so getting them out of that position is going to be difficult. They have time to mine and booby trap everything. However… the dark horse that is nuclear usage really needs to be understood from the lens that (A) someone has to accurately tell Putin what is going on (B) he has to respond requesting this to happen (C) someone has to launch a nuke (and the doctrine is that nukes are kept at the Battalion level in the Russian Army) (D) all of this has to not be stopped somehow by an intelligence leak or an insider who doesn’t want a nuclear war.

Weaver Apr 4, 2023, 2:42 PM
3 points
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in reply to: O Carciente’s comment on: Open Thread: April — June 2023
I don’t consider myself a high achiever, except for the one school the Army sent me to that I did really well at (I had a lot of preparation and mentors before I arrived), but let me tell you how I broke into EA and in turn how I think you could do a lot of good for the community.
I became a writer(later an indie publisher) during the pandemic (also became a dad), mostly because someone nuked my DND campaign, and I now had a son. My son napped a lot and in that time I found that I could write stuff, so I formed/joined two writers groups, and then they beat me up until I read “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality”. I would not be here except for that which led me to join rationalist discords and write a whole fiction book where EA is the underlying theme. I’m not Alexander Wales or the Yudkowski fellow, but I do like writing and reading fiction, and if I can get readers to consider the EA/Rationalist viewpoint, then all the better.
You might not feel like you can make a high impact, but if you can write something, fun and compelling to read, then others might follow suit. (That, or write articles here, which reminds me I need to write another one about operations.)
I feel like the interpersonal dynamic of reaching out from EA groups to outside groups is missed a lot, but also I have never been to an EA global event because of the pandemic.
80K is a useful tool to find out where you can do the most good, but often, and especially here it can be very unclear if something will be a fit.
You might not write the next HPMOR, but you could write something similar. Or as will probably happen in my case, be the editor/publisher for the next HPMOR.

Weaver Jan 10, 2023, 4:21 PM
2 points
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in reply to: PSR’s comment on: Open Thread: October — December 2022
It would be great to train a cadre of EAs in political matters, working in NGOs at different levels to accomplish EA goals. I’m kicking around the idea of what that would look like, i.e. an EA NGO that directly interacts with the United Nations, and how we would do training for said organization. That’s something that conceptually is doable with current resources, although not every EA wants to wade hip deep into bureaucracy. I do, and it’s my current job, but it is 100% definitely not for everyone.

Weaver Dec 5, 2022, 6:55 PM
3 points
1 ∶ 0
on: EA Taskmaster Game
OH man. This is good stuff. Now to find a group to do this with.

Weaver Nov 2, 2022, 3:36 PM
1 point
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on: All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [~monthly thread]
If someone was looking to get a graduate degree in AI, what would they look for? Is it different for other grad schools?

Weaver Nov 2, 2022, 3:34 PM
1 point
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on: EA for people with non-technical skillsets
It’s probably covered by Example 4, but International Aid and Development under the umbrella of diplomacy. I feel like there should be an EA NGO that has a high level diplomatic interface with governments and the United Nations, unless I’m missing something there isn’t.

Weaver Sep 20, 2022, 3:09 PM
2 points
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in reply to: saeculara’s comment on: Join ASAP (AI Safety Accountability Programme) 🚀
Yeah the link isn’t active.

Weaver Sep 7, 2022, 3:10 PM
3 points
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on: Is there more guidance/resources on what to do if one feels like they are part of a sugnificant minority that should focus on potentially pressing global issues beyond current 80 000h priorities?
For these specific ideas, working on safeguarding democracy and the others, this would probably be covered by creating or working for an EA organization that can advocate for these ideals to either a government or the United nations. There are several Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) that directly interface with the UN and lobby for their causes, or work directly with governments at a federal, state or local level.
I would be surprised if there wasn’t such an NGO that exists, if not uh, I’d be willing to help. Lobby and working with bureaucracy is a skill in itself. I’ll probably write an article about this idea if there is interest.

Weaver Aug 30, 2022, 3:15 PM
4 points
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on: What books/blogs/articles were most impactful on you re: EA?
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. It got me into rationality/less wrong and set me down the path.

Weaver Aug 26, 2022, 6:05 PM
3 points
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in reply to: Jeff A’s comment on: Open Thread: June — September 2022
Oh hey! Another Rutgers guy! I’m still working in Jersey so let me know if I can help out in some small way with your EA Chapter.

Weaver Aug 10, 2022, 8:57 PM
2 points
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in reply to: Molly’s comment on: Military Service as an Option to Build Career Capital
Pros- you get cheaper health insurance and you will generally stay in your state guard unless you really want to leave.
Cons—some jobs are harder to advance in, and you may have limited positions available, and unit culture could be really good or really bad
For tuition assistance, in most states, you can go to the state college for free. Connecticut for instance has a program that will let you go to any state school for free if you have deployed or been active for 90 days. At the top of your career? You might make $12-15k annually for your 48 days.
Tricare for single people is like $50 a month. Families are $200. Dental is extra and like $30. I know several Veterinarians who have stayed in the reserves for health insurance alone. Also, you get life insurance for the time you’re in ($400k, ~$30 per month) opt out possible.
If you have more questions… this is literally part of what I do for the reserves but the guard is similar.

Weaver Jul 31, 2022, 10:51 AM
2 points
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in reply to: Jakob’s comment on: EA in the mainstream media: if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu
I have not. If you could connect the two of us, I would appreciate it. I’ll message you this week when I get a chance to talk shop and I hope it will be a productive discussion.

Weaver Jul 31, 2022, 12:59 AM
2 points
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in reply to: Peter Wildeford’s comment on: EA in the mainstream media: if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu
I wrote a bit about this here: Public Relations: Message & Rapport
I’ll probably have a bit more about this as I think about what specific messaging “how to” would be useful for EAs.

Weaver Jul 30, 2022, 6:39 PM
3 points
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in reply to: Peter Wildeford’s comment on: EA in the mainstream media: if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu
I’m working on an EA consultancy startup (still in planning phases) but with my experience running a large scale operation, I could fold this kind of talent into the consultancy portion and then farm that out. Part of my job is media training and perhaps that is something that EA lacks? I need to research this more but I tend to get the feeling that EAs disregard politics when it’s not convenient or don’t engage as much as they could. Messaging is politics as it’s basest level, and I’ll probably write a forums post on this later- it’s about building rapport and speaking clearly what you are doing. Comment on this with your thoughts as to what you would want with a PR team or media training so I can make some red teaming stuff about it.

Weaver Jul 15, 2022, 2:11 AM
3 points
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on: Recommendations for EA-themed sci-fi and fantasy?
I wrote this novel as a way to explore how a Xianxia society would combat the existential risk of a threat that could not be defeated in combat. I also wrote an after action review of how it was to write an entire novel explicitly from an EA lens (see my post). The MC is an EA-Rationalist, and… it did a lot better than anything else I have ever written...

https://www.royalroad.com/fiction/49962/sect-leader-cold-hard-truth-isekai-cultivation

Weaver Jul 13, 2022, 1:53 PM
2 points
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on: Is helping Sri Lanka’s economy an EA issue? If not, why? If it is, what can be done to help?
You can ask Sri Lankans what kind of help they want. They might not want meals, they might want something else and without asking you probably wouldn’t know, and then be running into the play pumps problem. Here is an article about play pumps: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2010/07/01/the-playpump-what-went-wrong/#:~:text=If%20demand%20is%20too%20great,put%2C%20there%20is%20no%20panacea.
The idea was great, right? Help generate water from wells, and have a merry go round? Yeah that sounds great! But you have to remember that as EAs we’re cautioned against acting in a crisis, or working as triage in an emergency.
But you want to donate money to a cause earmarked to help normal everyday Sri Lankans? Okay well let’s try to think about what would be the best way to do that. You’ll need some way to distribute the local aid, unless you’re going to go in country yourself, and first you need to figure out what aid to give.
Here is how I would approach this if I were going about this seriously. Do an assessment of what the populace wants via interviews, on the ground temperature taking with talks in Sri Lanka, have an interpreter, or a local trusted agent take me around for this part. If I was doing this in my official capacity (US Government) I would have a vetted interpreter (if applicable) and or driver that the embassy had already cleared to work with me, and probably a list of important local organizations leaders to talk with.
I would probably spend about $10-20k trying to understand the problem at hand and who exactly I could vet to be a steward of whatever aid I was bringing. It’s one thing to bring in tons of food aid that is unwanted. It’s another thing to spin up tons of food aid and then not have a retail distribution setup on ground, this is where proper vetted people come in.
I would partner with some organization like catholic charities or the World Food Program to do the actual on the ground distribution or a local equivalent. Chances are that the WFP https://www.wfp.org/ is already there in some part helping out, or they are already developing a plan. Again, in my professional capacity I defer to organizations already set up to do this job a lot better than I could even with my logistics and diplomatic background. As an individual, why would they want to work with me? They would have to spend their precious time vetting me on their end, unless I came in as a recognized person. (Hence the professional angle.)
So unless you already came in with good information about how to help out, you’re be there trying to hand out the wrong kind of sandwiches in the wrong area, and become a part of the problem yourself.
It’s not an intractable issue for an organization, but it is something difficult even for a four person team to accomplish. Can you help by learning how to deliver wanted aid to the right individuals at the right time? Yes. Are those things simple or easy to accomplish? No.
There is enough food to feed the world, however it is in the wrong area and according to my cursory check, Sri Lanka is an island, further complicating their position. It’s a big logistics problem and I implore you to look into the WFP and how they run things.

Weaver Jul 11, 2022, 6:43 PM
1 point
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on: EA Fiction Writing Retreat, Update
I’m supremely interested in if this works and what after action inquiries reveal, also you know to possibly run my own event in the states.

Weaver Jul 11, 2022, 6:34 PM
1 point
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in reply to: Kirsten’s comment on: Pestering embassies to reduce non-policy barriers to movement
Directly, probably HR would be the person in charge or hiring someone if they’re in country, but HR is not going to be calling Washington to backfill empty roles.
That’s what the head of the Embassy would be doing, if enough people raised a fuss.
The State Department sends people on 3-5 year tours, so they might have a long wait to backfill a role.

Weaver Jul 11, 2022, 5:59 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Pestering embassies to reduce non-policy barriers to movement
As someone who has had to deal with bureaucratic systems frequently, I think you’re asking the wrong person. American Embassies act at the direction of the Ambassador or the Charge D’Affairs in their absence (or non appointment). Many of the people that fill Ambassador roles are career state department workers, but a large portion of these roles are filled by Presidential Appointment.
In turn, Ambassadors take their cue from the Secretary of State and the President. These are the people that will guide the policy which the Visa process stems from. Ergo, your elected representative has to make this a priority.
A good question would be, can an Ambassador unilaterally change this dynamic, and if so, who is friends with or has the ear of an Ambassador? You could write a letter to Mr. Eric W. Kneedler, who is (as of this writing) the current Charge d’Affairs for the US Embassy in Nairobi.
If not, you could look into doing a FOIA about the visa process and whatever holdups are actually occurring. They will have to respond to a FOIA, although it may not be in a timely manner.

Weaver Jul 11, 2022, 3:34 PM
1 point
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in reply to: IanDavidMoss’s comment on: Senior EA ‘ops’ roles: if you want to undo the bottleneck, hire differently
Well thanks for putting this brain worm into my ear. As I’m trying to make a decision between more project management for the Government or going back to the private sector, this looks very appealing.