Transformative artificial intelligence

TagLast edit: Apr 19, 2023, 9:20 PM by Pablo

Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) is artificial intelligence that constitutes a transformative development, i.e. a development at least as significant as the agricultural or industrial revolutions.^[1]

^
For a brief review of existing definitions in the literature, see Gruetzemacher, Ross & Jess Whittlestone (2022) The transformative potential of artificial intelligence, Futures, vol. 135, pp. 2–3.

Preventing an AI-related catastrophe—Problem profile

Benjamin HiltonAug 29, 2022, 6:49 PM

138 points

18 comments4 min readEA link

(80000hours.org)

Will scaling work?

Vasco Grilo🔸Feb 4, 2024, 9:29 AM

19 points

1 comment12 min readEA link

(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

Forecasting Transformative AI: Are we “trending toward” transformative AI? (How would we know?)

Holden KarnofskyAug 24, 2021, 5:15 PM

56 points

12 comments10 min readEA link

Non-alignment project ideas for making transformative AI go well

Lukas FinnvedenJan 4, 2024, 7:23 AM

66 points

1 comment3 min readEA link

(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Clarifying and predicting AGI

richard_ngoMay 4, 2023, 3:56 PM

69 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

Two contrasting models of “intelligence” and future growth

Magnus VindingNov 24, 2022, 11:54 AM

74 points

32 comments22 min readEA link

The longtermist AI governance landscape: a basic overview

Sam ClarkeJan 18, 2022, 12:58 PM

168 points

13 comments9 min readEA link

Literature review of Transformative Artificial Intelligence timelines

Jaime SevillaJan 27, 2023, 8:36 PM

148 points

10 comments1 min readEA link

FLI launches Worldbuilding Contest with $100,000 in prizes

ggilgallonJan 17, 2022, 1:54 PM

87 points

55 comments6 min readEA link

The Choice Transition

Owen Cotton-BarrattNov 18, 2024, 12:32 PM

43 points

1 comment15 min readEA link

(strangecities.substack.com)

Law-Following AI 1: Sequence Introduction and Structure

Cullen 🔸Apr 27, 2022, 5:16 PM

35 points

2 comments9 min readEA link

A Map to Navigate AI Governance

hanadulsetFeb 14, 2022, 10:41 PM

72 points

11 comments25 min readEA link

Here are the finalists from FLI’s $100K Worldbuilding Contest

Jackson WagnerJun 6, 2022, 6:42 PM

44 points

5 comments2 min readEA link

Is Democracy a Fad?

bgarfinkelMar 13, 2021, 12:40 PM

165 points

36 comments18 min readEA link

How technical safety standards could promote TAI safety

Cullen 🔸Aug 8, 2022, 4:57 PM

128 points

15 comments7 min readEA link

Forecasting transformative AI: the “biological anchors” method in a nutshell

Holden KarnofskyAug 31, 2021, 6:17 PM

50 points

13 comments18 min readEA link

Law-Following AI 3: Lawless AI Agents Undermine Stabilizing Agreements

Cullen 🔸Apr 27, 2022, 5:20 PM

28 points

3 comments3 min readEA link

Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI

Jaime SevillaJun 27, 2022, 1:39 PM

183 points

11 comments2 min readEA link

(epochai.org)

Forecasting transformative AI: what’s the burden of proof?

Holden KarnofskyAug 17, 2021, 5:14 PM

71 points

17 comments16 min readEA link

Forecasting Transformative AI: What Kind of AI?

Holden KarnofskyAug 10, 2021, 9:38 PM

62 points

3 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] What work has been done on the post-AGI distribution of wealth?

tlevinJul 6, 2022, 6:59 PM

16 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the “Experts,” Stand

Holden KarnofskySep 7, 2021, 5:35 PM

88 points

3 comments11 min readEA link

Law-Following AI 2: Intent Alignment + Superintelligence → Lawless AI (By Default)

Cullen 🔸Apr 27, 2022, 5:18 PM

19 points

0 comments6 min readEA link

General vs specific arguments for the longtermist importance of shaping AI development

Sam ClarkeOct 15, 2021, 2:43 PM

44 points

7 comments2 min readEA link

A personal take on longtermist AI governance

lukeprogJul 16, 2021, 10:08 PM

173 points

6 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] Is transformative AI the biggest existential risk? Why or why not?

Eevee🔹Mar 5, 2022, 3:54 AM

9 points

10 comments1 min readEA link

It takes 5 layers and 1000 artificial neurons to simulate a single biological neuron [Link]

MichaelStJulesSep 7, 2021, 9:53 PM

44 points

17 comments2 min readEA link

All Possible Views About Humanity’s Future Are Wild

Holden KarnofskyJul 13, 2021, 4:57 PM

217 points

47 comments8 min readEA link

(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Do EA folks want AGI at all?

Noah ScalesJul 16, 2022, 5:44 AM

8 points

10 comments1 min readEA link

Seeking Survey Responses—Attitudes Towards AI risks

ansonMar 28, 2022, 5:47 PM

23 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

(forms.gle)

Large Language Models as Corporate Lobbyists, and Implications for Societal-AI Alignment

johnjnayJan 4, 2023, 10:22 PM

10 points

6 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] Will the vast majority of technological progress happen in the longterm future?

Vasco Grilo🔸Jul 8, 2023, 8:40 AM

8 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 | Microsoft Research

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆Mar 23, 2023, 5:45 AM

15 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

Semi-conductor / AI stocks discussion.

sapphireNov 25, 2022, 11:35 PM

10 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

The Prospect of an AI Winter

Erich_Grunewald 🔸Mar 27, 2023, 8:55 PM

56 points

13 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Which stocks or ETFs should you invest in to take advantage of a possible AGI explosion, and why?

Eevee🔹Apr 10, 2023, 5:55 PM

19 points

16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is there EA discussion on non-x-risk transformative AI?

Franziska FischerApr 26, 2023, 1:50 PM

5 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

We don’t need AGI for an amazing future

Karl von WendtMay 4, 2023, 12:11 PM

57 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

Project ideas: Governance during explosive technological growth

Lukas FinnvedenJan 4, 2024, 7:25 AM

33 points

1 comment16 min readEA link

(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Project ideas: Epistemics

Lukas FinnvedenJan 4, 2024, 7:26 AM

43 points

1 comment17 min readEA link

(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Project ideas: Backup plans & Cooperative AI

Lukas FinnvedenJan 4, 2024, 7:26 AM

25 points

2 comments13 min readEA link

(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Project ideas: Sentience and rights of digital minds

Lukas FinnvedenJan 4, 2024, 7:26 AM

33 points

1 comment20 min readEA link

(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

[Linkpost] Situational Awareness—The Decade Ahead

MathiasKB🔸Jun 4, 2024, 10:58 PM

87 points

7 comments2 min readEA link

(situational-awareness.ai)

How AI Takeover Might Happen in Two Years

JoshcFeb 7, 2025, 11:51 PM

29 points

7 comments29 min readEA link

(x.com)

What is Compute? - Transformative AI and Compute [1/4]

lennartSep 23, 2021, 1:54 PM

48 points

6 comments18 min readEA link

[Question] Request for Assistance—Research on Scenario Development for Advanced AI Risk

KiliankMar 30, 2022, 3:01 AM

2 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Economic growth under transformative AI

Global Priorities InstituteFeb 3, 2021, 2:31 PM

3 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode

Holden KarnofskyJul 20, 2021, 4:41 PM

88 points

6 comments6 min readEA link

Scenario Mapping Advanced AI Risk: Request for Participation with Data Collection

KiliankMar 27, 2022, 11:44 AM

14 points

0 comments5 min readEA link

Geoffrey Hinton on the Past, Present, and Future of AI

Stephen McAleeseOct 12, 2024, 4:41 PM

5 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview

Holden KarnofskyJan 6, 2023, 2:19 AM

36 points

0 comments22 min readEA link

(www.cold-takes.com)

How we could stumble into AI catastrophe

Holden KarnofskyJan 16, 2023, 2:52 PM

83 points

0 comments31 min readEA link

(www.cold-takes.com)

Compute Research Questions and Metrics—Transformative AI and Compute [4/4]

lennartNov 28, 2021, 10:18 PM

18 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

Vasco Grilo🔸Jun 25, 2022, 2:24 PM

58 points

2 comments11 min readEA link

Transformative AI and Compute—Reading List

Frederik BergSep 4, 2023, 6:21 AM

24 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(docs.google.com)

England & Wales & Windfalls

John Bridge 🔸Jun 3, 2022, 10:26 AM

13 points

1 comment24 min readEA link

[Link Post] Interesting shallow round-up of reasons to be skeptical that transformative AI or explosive economic growth are coming soon

David Mathers🔸Jun 28, 2023, 7:49 PM

31 points

8 comments17 min readEA link

(thegradient.pub)

Public Opinion on AI Safety: AIMS 2023 and 2021 Summary

Janet PauketatSep 25, 2023, 6:09 PM

19 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

The ELYSIUM Proposal

RokoOct 16, 2024, 2:14 AM

−10 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(transhumanaxiology.substack.com)

Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover

AjeyaJul 18, 2022, 7:07 PM

217 points

12 comments84 min readEA link

(www.lesswrong.com)

How might we solve the alignment problem? (Part 1: Intro, summary, ontology)

Joe_CarlsmithOct 28, 2024, 9:57 PM

18 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

When Will We Spend Enough to Train Transformative AI

snMar 28, 2023, 12:41 AM

3 points

0 comments9 min readEA link

Strategic wealth accumulation under transformative AI expectations

ardenbergFeb 21, 2025, 1:16 PM

21 points

3 comments17 min readEA link

(arxiv.org)

Artificial Intelligence as exit strategy from the age of acute existential risk

Arturo MaciasApr 12, 2023, 2:41 PM

11 points

11 comments7 min readEA link

Making of #IAN

kirchner.janAug 29, 2021, 4:24 PM

9 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(universalprior.substack.com)

[Opzionale] Tutte le possibili conclusioni sul futuro dell’umanità sono incredibili

EA ItalyJan 17, 2023, 2:59 PM

1 point

0 comments8 min readEA link

Le Tempistiche delle IA: il dibattito e il punto di vista degli “esperti”

EA ItalyJan 17, 2023, 11:30 PM

1 point

0 comments11 min readEA link

[Opzionale] Il panorama della governance lungoterminista delle intelligenze artificiali

EA ItalyJan 17, 2023, 11:03 AM

1 point

0 comments10 min readEA link

AI Alternative Futures: Exploratory Scenario Mapping for Artificial Intelligence Risk—Request for Participation [Linkpost]

KiliankMay 9, 2022, 7:53 PM

17 points

2 comments8 min readEA link

Prevenire una catastrofe legata all’intelligenza artificiale

EA ItalyJan 17, 2023, 11:07 AM

1 point

0 comments3 min readEA link

Epoch is hiring a Research Data Analyst

merilalamaNov 22, 2022, 5:34 PM

21 points

0 comments4 min readEA link

(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

The Terminology of Artificial Sentience

Janet PauketatNov 28, 2021, 7:52 AM

29 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Motivation control

Joe_CarlsmithOct 30, 2024, 5:15 PM

18 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

A Brief Summary Of The Most Important Century

Maynk02Oct 25, 2022, 3:28 PM

3 points

0 comments5 min readEA link

Published report: Pathways to short TAI timelines

Zershaaneh QureshiFeb 20, 2025, 10:10 PM

46 points

2 comments17 min readEA link

(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

[Question] Please Share Your Perspectives on the Degree of Societal Impact from Transformative AI Outcomes

KiliankApr 15, 2022, 1:23 AM

3 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

Intrinsic limitations of GPT-4 and other large language models, and why I’m not (very) worried about GPT-n

James FodorJun 3, 2023, 1:09 PM

28 points

3 comments11 min readEA link

Transformative AI and Scenario Planning for AI X-risk

Elliot MckernonMar 22, 2024, 11:44 AM

14 points

1 comment8 min readEA link

‘Artificial Intelligence Governance under Change’ (PhD dissertation)

MMMaasSep 15, 2022, 12:10 PM

54 points

1 comment2 min readEA link

(drive.google.com)

Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) Survey: 2021

Janet PauketatJul 1, 2022, 7:47 AM

36 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

What are the differences between AGI, transformative AI, and superintelligence?

Vishakha AgrawalJan 23, 2025, 10:11 AM

12 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

(aisafety.info)

New Sequence—Towards a worldwide, watertight Windfall Clause

John Bridge 🔸Apr 7, 2022, 3:02 PM

25 points

4 comments8 min readEA link

Compute Governance and Conclusions—Transformative AI and Compute [3/4]

lennartOct 14, 2021, 7:55 AM

20 points

3 comments5 min readEA link

Transformative AI and Compute [Summary]

lennartSep 23, 2021, 1:53 PM

65 points

5 comments9 min readEA link

Data Publication for the 2021 Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) Survey

Janet PauketatMar 24, 2022, 3:43 PM

21 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Overview of Transformative AI Misuse Risks

SammyDMartinDec 11, 2024, 11:04 AM

12 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

(longtermrisk.org)

Forecasting Compute—Transformative AI and Compute [2/4]

lennartOct 1, 2021, 8:25 AM

39 points

6 comments19 min readEA link

No comments.

Trans­for­ma­tive ar­tifi­cial intelligence

Further reading

Related entries

Transformative artificial intelligence