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Bayesian epistemology

TagLast edit: Jul 14, 2022, 2:57 PM by Pablo

Bayesian epistemology (sometimes referred to as Bayesianism) is the broader epistemology informed by Bayes’ theorem.

Further reading

LessWrong (2020) Bayesianism, LessWrong Wiki.

Related entries

Bayes’ theorem | decision theory | epistemic deference | epistemology | rationality

Uncer­tainty over time and Bayesian updating

David BernardOct 25, 2023, 3:51 PM
63 points
2 comments28 min readEA link

Defer­ence for Bayesians

John G. HalsteadFeb 13, 2021, 12:33 PM
101 points
30 comments7 min readEA link

Causes and Uncer­tainty: Re­think­ing Value in Expectation

Bob FischerOct 11, 2023, 9:15 AM
220 points
29 comments15 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Michael Hue­mer on the case for Bayesian statistics

John G. HalsteadFeb 7, 2023, 5:52 PM
20 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Bayes is Out-Dated, and You’re Do­ing it Wrong

Anthony RepettoFeb 25, 2023, 11:25 PM
−17 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris SmithApr 4, 2019, 1:28 PM
94 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

Con­trol­ling for a thinker’s big idea

Vasco Grilo🔸Oct 21, 2023, 7:56 AM
60 points
11 comments8 min readEA link
(magnusvinding.com)

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott GarrabrantNov 23, 2022, 6:05 PM
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Solu­tions to prob­lems with Bayesianism

Bob JacobsNov 4, 2023, 12:15 PM
27 points
2 comments21 min readEA link

Prior knowl­edge elic­i­ta­tion: The past, pre­sent, and fu­ture [re­view pa­per 2023]

EdoAradJan 10, 2024, 9:32 AM
9 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

EA should blurt

RobBensingerNov 22, 2022, 9:57 PM
155 points
26 comments5 min readEA link

How mod­est should you be?

John G. HalsteadDec 28, 2020, 5:47 PM
26 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

Bayesian Mindset

Holden KarnofskyDec 21, 2021, 7:54 PM
73 points
19 comments25 min readEA link

[Question] What do EA’s think about Bayesian in­fer­ences ver­sus other types?

Noah ScalesFeb 4, 2023, 11:09 AM
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

We can’t put num­bers on ev­ery­thing and try­ing to weak­ens our col­lec­tive epistemics

ConcernedEAsMar 8, 2023, 3:09 PM
9 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Guida alla re­gola di Bayes

EA ItalyJan 17, 2023, 11:10 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

Should you go with your best guess?: Against pre­cise Bayesi­anism and re­lated views

Anthony DiGiovanniJan 27, 2025, 8:25 PM
73 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Fu­ture Fund Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDELDec 18, 2022, 4:03 PM
−8 points
24 comments13 min readEA link

Against Modest Epistemology

EliezerYudkowskyNov 14, 2017, 9:26 PM
18 points
11 comments15 min readEA link

Global Health & Devel­op­ment—Beyond the Streetlight

Richard SedlmayrJul 2, 2022, 6:56 PM
36 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Anec­dotes Can Be Strong Ev­i­dence and Bayes The­o­rem Proves It

FCCCMar 13, 2022, 4:37 AM
15 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

EV Max­i­miza­tion for Humans

SharmakeSep 3, 2022, 11:44 PM
12 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

My notes on: Why we can’t take ex­pected value es­ti­mates liter­ally (even when they’re un­bi­ased)

Vasco Grilo🔸Apr 18, 2022, 1:10 PM
15 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

New Global Pri­ori­ties In­sti­tute work­ing pa­pers—and an up­dated ver­sion of “The case for strong longter­mism”

Global Priorities InstituteAug 9, 2021, 4:57 PM
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Bayes’ The­o­rem explained

Tomer_GoloboyMar 28, 2022, 12:40 AM
4 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Bayes’ rule: Guide

EA HandbookJul 16, 2022, 11:00 PM
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott GarrabrantNov 22, 2022, 5:19 PM
46 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Alan Há­jek, philoso­pher of prob­a­bil­ity, Bayesi­anism, ex­pected value and coun­ter­fat­u­als?

Robert_WiblinJul 1, 2022, 1:23 PM
25 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

aaron_maiJan 16, 2023, 11:35 AM
22 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

Vi­su­al­i­sa­tion of Prob­a­bil­ity Mass

brookJan 23, 2023, 7:39 PM
2 points
2 comments1 min readEA link