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Squiggle

TagLast edit: 26 Nov 2022 15:14 UTC by brook

Squiggle is a special-purpose coding language for generating probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. It was developed by the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.

Tutorials

The official basics guide[1] is a good written guide if you have experience programming and/​or have a specific project in mind already.

There’s also a few simple worked examples on the forum to demonstrate squiggle’s value[2], and a more complex model based on GiveWell’s cost effectiveness analyses[3].

Note that squiggle is still in development and has several known bugs[4].

External links

Squiggle official website.

Squiggle basics guide

Squiggle components: tools to implement squiggle into websites

Squiggle Tweaker: Simple squiggle visualiser

Squiggle to Graph [WIP]: generate visual dependency graph of squiggle code

Related Entries

list of tools for Collaborative Truth Seeking | guesstimate | QURI | cause prioritisation

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An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2022 0:23 UTC
147 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC
52 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the im­pact of grant­mak­ing ca­reer paths

Joel Becker30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC
32 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC
33 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle Hub

Ozzie Gooen5 Aug 2023 0:55 UTC
131 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­glepy, a Python pack­age for Squiggle

Peter Wildeford19 Oct 2022 18:34 UTC
90 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(github.com)

Rel­a­tive Value Func­tions: A Flex­ible New For­mat for Value Estimation

Ozzie Gooen18 May 2023 16:39 UTC
58 points
23 comments18 min readEA link

Open Tech­ni­cal Challenges around Prob­a­bil­is­tic Pro­grams and Javascript

Ozzie Gooen26 Aug 2023 2:04 UTC
39 points
3 comments6 min readEA link

Im­prov­ing Karma: $8mn of pos­si­ble value (my es­ti­mate)

Nathan Young1 Sep 2022 22:42 UTC
34 points
15 comments13 min readEA link

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie Gooen4 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

What is es­ti­ma­tional pro­gram­ming? Squig­gle in context

quinn12 Aug 2022 18:01 UTC
26 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC
302 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of try­ing some­thing new

Falk Lieder3 Apr 2023 12:29 UTC
46 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Are there dis­ec­onomies of scale in the rep­u­ta­tion of com­mu­ni­ties?

Lizka27 Jul 2023 18:43 UTC
52 points
16 comments17 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments6 min readEA link

How much do mar­kets value Open AI?

Ben_West🔸14 May 2023 19:28 UTC
39 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC
47 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

AI risk/​re­ward: A sim­ple model

Nathan Young4 May 2023 19:12 UTC
37 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

En­hanc­ing Math­e­mat­i­cal Model­ing with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

Ozzie Gooen28 Oct 2024 21:37 UTC
9 points
3 comments15 min readEA link

Ad­ding Quan­tified Uncer­tainty to GiveWell’s Cost Effec­tive­ness Anal­y­sis of the Against Malaria Foundation

Tanae31 Aug 2022 12:53 UTC
31 points
10 comments3 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

[Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge] CEA LEEP Malawi

drwahl1 Sep 2022 5:13 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link
(danwahl.net)

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolan31 Oct 2022 14:31 UTC
118 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell’s GiveDirectly Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

SamNolan27 May 2022 3:10 UTC
130 points
19 comments6 min readEA link

How many EA billion­aires five years from now?

Erich_Grunewald 🔸20 Aug 2022 9:57 UTC
61 points
25 comments6 min readEA link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 16:29 UTC
55 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

How ex­pen­sive is leav­ing your org? Squig­gle Model

jessica_mccurdy16 Aug 2023 18:01 UTC
40 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of de­ploy­ing a new intervention

Falk Lieder10 Apr 2023 9:07 UTC
26 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of pre­vi­ous R&D projects

Falk Lieder24 Apr 2023 9:48 UTC
25 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of fu­ture R&D pro­jects and aca­demic research

Falk Lieder8 May 2023 9:58 UTC
23 points
3 comments11 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

An AI Race With China Can Be Bet­ter Than Not Racing

niplav2 Jul 2024 17:57 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
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