Joel, I’m highly confident Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon. The U.S. and Israel have exquisite intelligence on the Iranian nuclear program, which has been a high priority for decades. Should Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei change his policy and pursue a nuclear weapon, we would know.
During my time in government I was involved in convincing the Israeli government not to launch a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. I was also involved in developing the military capabilities needed if Iran did opt for nuclear weapons, and these capabilities are now mature. The Iranian leadership understands well that pursuit of nuclear weapons would provoke an Israeli military strike.
The above said, Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the JCPOA to pursue a better deal was a stupid and reckless failure. Undoing that damage should be a high priority for our diplomats.
ASB, Maybe I’ll try answering both questions at once, because the first one is too ridiculous to answer directly without being snotty. While some of my work during a thirty year public service career has received attention, it is very important to understand that anything we achieved was the result of teamwork. Indeed, one of the most satisfying aspects of public service is that it is a team sport. So my advice is don’t have personal ambition, but rather focus on mission ambition. Together we can accomplish big things to make the world a safer place. One of the aspects I love about the EA community is how supportive and kind people are to one another.