elte

Karma: 349

elte 22 Aug 2025 8:49 UTC
4 points
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on: Foresight Institute launches two possible future scenarios with AI
FYI we recorded a podcast episode with Anthony Aguirre focused on the Tool AI scenario. We asked Anthony to stress test it, trade-offs, incentives, liability, and the plausibility of actually making a Tool AI future happen, and we also talk a bit about why we did this project overall and how it relates to the companion d/acc scenario: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwJaFMi3Ydw&feature=youtu.be

elte 20 Aug 2025 20:29 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Denkenberger🔸’s comment on: Foresight Institute launches two possible future scenarios with AI
Yeah I think my sense was definitely that people saw Tool AI as a great solution, but mostly interim. If we had phrased it as being “locked in forever,” the reactions might have looked very different? I’ve interpreted it more as that people seem to see it as preserving option value: we can still develop AGI later, but ideally after we’ve managed to integrate Tool AI into society, and set up systems to handle AGI better than if it came now when we’re quite poorly prepared.

Really appreciate your points on capital dividend funds and the distributional side as well. If you’re up for it, would love if you shared these thoughts on the Metaculus tournament too, where we’re running a comment prize exactly to surface perspectives like this: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/ :)

elte 19 Aug 2025 14:32 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Tristan D’s comment on: Virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s “Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World”
it went well but nothing recorded unfortunately :(

elte 2 Apr 2025 15:25 UTC
6 points
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on: elteerkers’s Quick takes
We just launched a free, self-paced course: Worldbuilding Hopeful Futures with AI, created by Foresight Institute as part of our Existential Hope program.

The course is probably not breaking new conceptual ground for folks here who are already “red-pilled” on AI risks — but it might still be of interest for a few reasons:
- It’s designed to broaden the base of people engaging with long-term AI trajectories, including governance, institutional design, and alignment concerns.
- It uses worldbuilding as an accessible gateway for newcomers — especially those who aren’t in technical fields but still want to understand and shape AI’s future.
We’re inviting contributions from more experienced thinkers as well — to help seed more diverse, plausible, and strategically relevant futures that can guide better public conversations.

Guest lectures include:

Helen Toner (CSET, former OpenAI board) on frontier lab dynamics

Anton Korinek (Brookings) on economic impact of AI

Anthony Aguirre (FLI) on existential risk

Hannah Ritchie (Our World in Data) on grounded progress

Glen Weyl (RadicalxChange) on plural governance

Ada Palmer (historian & sci-fi author) on long-range thinking

If you’re involved in outreach, education, or mentoring, this might be a good resource to share. And if you’re curious about how we’re trying to translate these issues to a wider audience — or want to help build out more compelling positive-world scenarios — we’d love your input.

👉 https://www.udemy.com/course/worldbuilding-hopeful-futures-with-ai/

Would love feedback or questions — and happy to incorporate critiques into the next iteration.

elte 6 Nov 2023 14:01 UTC
8 points
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in reply to: SebastianSchmidt’s comment on: Existential Hope and Existential Risk: Exploring the value of optimistic approaches to shaping the long-term future
Thanks for your comment!

Agree with your pros and cons.

“Existential security” seems like a great one within EA.

Have not seen the “procedural visions” one! Thanks for recommending it, will look.

On your course question: As we are currently working on something similar to this at Foresight right now I will answer similarly to what we are thinking of adding there. Which is to do ambitious worldbuilding in groups of 4-5 people with complementary skill sets. Will share more when our resources are online for that!

Thank you! :)

elte 14 Apr 2023 8:27 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: C Tilli’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
Thanks for the question!

I would say that it’s not that people aren’t aware of risks, my broad reflection is more in terms of how one relates to it. In the EA/X-risk community it is clear that one should take these things extremely seriously and do everything one can to prevent them. I often feel that even though researchers in general are very aware of potential risks with their technologies, they seem to get swept up in the daily business of just doing their work, and not reflecting very actively over the potential risks with it.

I don’t know exactly why that is, it could be that they don’t consider it their personal responsibility, or perhaps they feel powerless and that aiming to push progress forward is either the best or the only option? But that is a question that would be interesting to dig deeper into!

elte 14 Apr 2023 8:17 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Linda Linsefors’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
That’s a good point. I’m unsure of what the best way of facilitating these meetings would be, so that it doesn’t downplay the seriousness of the questions. But assuming good intentions, allowing for disagreements, and acknowledging the differences is enough and the best option.

elte 14 Apr 2023 8:10 UTC
1 point
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elte 14 Apr 2023 8:10 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Jessica Wen’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
Agree it doesn’t represent “the STEM community”. As in my reply to Jessica’s longer comment, I agree there isn’t really such a thing as “the STEM community”, and if I were to write the post now I would want to better reflect the fact that this was asked to the Foresight community, in which most participants are working in one of our technical fields: neurotech, space tech, nanotech, biotech or computation. In the survey I ask if people identify themselves as STEM professionals, a question to which most answered yes (85% of respondents in this v. small survey).

elte 14 Apr 2023 8:09 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: DavidNash’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
Thank you!

elte 14 Apr 2023 8:06 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Jessica Wen’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
Hi Jessica, thank you so much for your thorough read and response! I found it very useful.

I agree there isn’t really such a thing as “the STEM community”, and if I were to write the post now I would want to better reflect the fact that this was asked to the Foresight community, in which most participants are working in one of our technical fields: neurotech, space tech, nanotech, biotech or computation. In the survey I ask if people identify themselves as STEM professionals, a question to which most answered yes (85% of respondents in this v. small survey). So as you point out, most are not in the life sciences.

Regarding the demographics, our community is very male dominated. However, our team is all female, and we are actively trying to improve on this. I would be interested to hear if you at HI Engineers are doing anything on this, and have any learning that you can share? I did not collect any data on ethnicity or age in this survey.

As I stated in the post, and can only state again, this is very preliminary, so I agree one shouldn’t draw too much of a conclusion based on this. But I’m happy I put it out there as is so that I could get this useful feedback from you!

Regarding what technology means in the text, I would say that it refers to both informations and “physical” technologies. I’d be very interested to hear more about your outreach work with HI Engineers. Overall, your work looks very interesting, and so I hope you don’t mind if I reach out “off forum”! :)

elte 12 Apr 2023 11:55 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: DavidNash’s comment on: Preliminary investigations on if STEM and EA communities could benefit from more overlap
Good point! Are there any other X-risk communities you think we should look at, other than the ones already active within EA?

elte 2 Nov 2022 14:15 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Caro’s comment on: Which are the best examples/resources of positive futures you can think of? E.g something like Max Tegmark’s utopias in Life 3.0
Thank you!

elte 2 Nov 2022 14:14 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Devin Kalish’s comment on: Which are the best examples/resources of positive futures you can think of? E.g something like Max Tegmark’s utopias in Life 3.0
Excellent, thank you!

elte 2 Nov 2022 14:14 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Michael Huang’s comment on: Which are the best examples/resources of positive futures you can think of? E.g something like Max Tegmark’s utopias in Life 3.0
Thaaank you!

elte 25 Oct 2022 15:43 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Devin Kalish’s comment on: Which are the best conferences to attend that are not EAGs?
i’ve been considering it also actually! thank you for recommendation :)

elte 25 Oct 2022 15:42 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: AndreFerretti’s comment on: Which are the best conferences to attend that are not EAGs?
thanks! will have a look!

elte 28 May 2022 8:52 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Luke Freeman’s comment on: Is there a “Humans of EA” project? Meaning a project portraying different members within EA.
Aha thank you so much! I’ll have a look!

elte 28 May 2022 8:52 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: MathiasKB🔸’s comment on: Is there a “Humans of EA” project? Meaning a project portraying different members within EA.
Oh maybe that’s it! Thank you I’ll look it up

elte 22 Feb 2022 13:35 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Sim’s comment on: Should we produce more EA-related documentaries?
Thank you for the recommendation! Will reach out.

elte

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