If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the United States (US) in 2027, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), is higher than 8 %, I donate 2 k$ to an organisation or fund of David’s choice in January 2028.
Neglecting the risk of the bet not being fulfilled, it is worth it for me if my probability of winning is higher than 2⁄3 (= 1/(1*10^3/(2*10^3) + 1)).
Here are my and David’s informal signatures:
Vasco Grilo.
David Manheim.
I remain open to betsagainst short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. I mostly think about AI as normal technology.
I bet superforecaster David Manheim 2 k$ that the unemployment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %
I and David Manheim, a Good Judgement’s superforecaster, agreed on the following bet on 19 May 2025:
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the United States (US) in 2027, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), is higher than 8 %, I donate 2 k$ to an organisation or fund of David’s choice in January 2028.
Otherwise, David donates 1 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in January 2028. Currently, it would be the Centre for Exploratory Altruism Research’s (CEARCH’s) High Impact Philanthropy Fund (HIPF), which I estimate decreases 5.07 billion soil-animal-years per $.
Neglecting the risk of the bet not being fulfilled, it is worth it for me if my probability of winning is higher than 2⁄3 (= 1/(1*10^3/(2*10^3) + 1)).
Here are my and David’s informal signatures:
Vasco Grilo.
David Manheim.
I remain open to bets against short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. I mostly think about AI as normal technology.