EA sexual harassment: Where’s the evidence we’re worse than baseline?

I used AI while writing this, though I have spent 5 − 15 hours on it and I take responsibility for every word and all numbers.

Every time there is a report of sexual harassment within EA there is a lot of introspection. I want to push back on this, not to dismiss the experiences described, which sound genuinely painful, but because I am unsure the evidence supports the belief that EA is uniquely bad here.

So what do we know? In 2022, CEA’s Community Health team reported handling around 19 interpersonal harm cases the previous year, ranging from uncomfortable interactions to serious allegations, across a community of thousands. On my read, 3–6 of those 19 clearly involve sexual misconduct across a community of 4,700–10,000 EAs, putting a narrower rate at around 0.03–0.13%.

Alongside this there have been perhaps 3–5 high-profile public cases on the Forum in the last five years. The TIME piece in 2023 cited 7 women, though at the time it was disputed how clearly the cases related to EA. These data don’t seem clearly outside of the above range.

The cleanest peer numbers come from universities’ Title IX offices, which publish annual case counts. Harvard, Stanford and MIT report disclosure rates of roughly 0.6–2% per year, and formal-investigation rates of around 0.09–0.17%. EA’s reported rates sit below university disclosure rates and at-or-below their formal-investigation rates.

A McKinsey workplace survey produces much larger percentages (~1–5% annually, derived from career-lifetime rates of 35% reported in LeanIn/​McKinsey 2024). But surveys measure lived experience; CEA’s 19 and universities’ Title IX figures measure reports filed to a central body. The chart below gives all of these rates with lower and upper bounds.

image.png

Full sources and caveats[1].

In contrast to this, many EA forum commenters seem to believe that EA is unusually bad in some general sense[2]. These are examples of comments are widely upvoted and agreed-with. I give them as evidence for a certain widely-agreed belief, but this is not a systematic review:

Funnily enough, I think EA does worse than other communities /​ movements I’m involved with (grassroots animal advocacy & environmentalism).

Comment (karma 92, agree 54 /​ disagree 11)

Thank you for speaking up—it takes a lot, especially when women in EA often face such unproductive engagement for doing so

Comment (karma 118, agree 28 /​ disagree 1)

there is still such a pervasive culture of sexism.

Comment (karma 41, agree 11 /​ disagree 0)

The EA community has a significant undersupply of information from victims of abusive conduct, since the victims are often branded as ‘triggered’ or ‘irrational’.

Comment (karma 20, agree 14 /​ disagree 2)

And here are another set implying that broad cultural change is required to fix this:

MY RECOMMENDATIONS

...create systems of checks and balances that do not allow for conflicts of interest to enable biased decisions…

...Create some kind of educational content around how to be a good ally to victims and how to identify bad situations so people can intervene...

...Identify when situations involve biased actors and correct by introducing unbiased actors...

...Hire an external arbiter...

...please work with [J_J]...who has been doing grassroots justice in the Bay Area for some time now.

Comment (karma 47, agree 21 /​ disagree 7)

I’m a little concerned by the lack of response from org leaders (unless I missed something), and I think there’s a risk that CEA leaders and others might under-update from this

Comment on a report of sexual misconduct (karma 46, agree 22 /​ disagree 3)

Thank you for flagging the aspects of our ecosystem’s culture that we need to be extra mindful of.

Comment on a report of sexual misconduct (karma 26, agree 11 /​ disagree 6)

While writing this piece and rereading many of the comments on such articles I can only recall one widely upvoted comment which pushes against this notion:

Women who identified as EA were less likely report lifetime sexual harassed at work than other women, 18% vs. 20%. They were also less likely to report being sexually harassed outside of work, 57% vs. 61%.

… Overall I am not sure that anything can be concluded from these results either way.

Comment referencing an SSC survey (karma 143, agree 20, disagree 5)

So overall I claim there are lots of widely-upvoted comments that imply EA is unusually bad and few that dispute it.

When anecdotes and data disagree, there is often something wrong with the data[3], but I am confused about what’s happening here. By way of example, I went to university in Durham, which after making sexual assault reporting easier, was ranked at or near the top of UK universities for reported sexual assault for the next few years. ie their ranking got considerably worse after they took steps to improve things. Was Durham culture bad in 2011? In my view, yes. Was Durham notably worse than other UK universities? I don’t know. How sparse reporting and anecdotes link to the overall picture is a generally difficult problem in sexual misconduct reporting.

As for EA, there are multiple stories that fit the data we see:

  1. EA is a predominantly male/​non-traditional community where women are treated badly and reporting is suppressed.

  2. Women are treated as well as in other communities, but it should still be an area of focus.

  3. EA is a transparent culture which is taking this seriously, and things are actually better than in other communities, even if occasionally there are awful occurrences.

So I would like more data. CEA’s Community Health team conducted a Gender Experiences Project in 2023 with ~40 interviews and analysis of survey data. I am unable to find any published outputs. There are ways we could distinguish between these hypotheses and try and generate a story where the data and anecdotes are less in conflict.

But until we do, I am not currently convinced by the “EA is unusually bad” hypothesis which many commenters seem to believe. A majority of those who engage with posts about sexual harassment seem to implicitly agree with this hypothesis. I am unconvinced by it. If we imagine a community of thousands of people which was excellent in this area, I still would expect some awful accounts. If I saw this data and these accounts about another community, I think I’d think “they are probably better than most communities”.

What’s more, we as EAs generally want to communicate accurately about things. If the rate was previously at the lower end of normal bounds (and has probably fallen since), then this community is not abnormally bad, and we should discuss the issue accordingly. And suggested community changes should discuss tradeoffs.

I am not the ideal messenger—I don’t consider myself particularly sensitive on these issues. Some will feel this isn’t the right moment. I have no interest in litigating specific cases in the comments. But we of all people know the value of scale. Commenters regularly discuss this as if the community is unusually bad, requiring broad cultural change, and those arguments deserve a response.

  1. ^

    Chart notes:

    General notes on the ranges. The bars upper and lower bound comes from denominator choice, not numerator uncertainty. For the universities, the lower bound of the denominator counts students-only + academic staff), the high end adds non-academic staff (security, dining, facilities, admin); a much larger denominator that drags the rate down. For the CEA Community Health bars, the range is based on community size estimates. For the two survey-derived bars (US workplace, open-source contributors), the range reflects the conversion from lifetime to annual rate; † on the chart flags these. The EEOC bar has no range because both numerator (charges filed) and denominator (US workforce) are fixed annual figures.

    US workplace, women. LeanIn.org and McKinsey & Company, “Women in the Workplace 2024: The 10th Anniversary Report” (full PDF). Derived from lifetime survey responses then turned into an annual rate; not a directly measured annual rate.

    Open-source contributors, women. GitHub Open Source Survey, 2017. Derived from lifetime survey responses then turned into an annual rate; not a directly measured annual rate.

    Harvard Title IX disclosures and formal investigations (FY20, FY22). Harvard Title IX and Office for Dispute Resolution annual reports: csndr.harvard.edu/​data-dashboard; FY22 coverage in The Crimson. Denominator (lower bound: students+ academic staff; upper bound: students + academic staff + non-academic staff).

    MIT Title IX disclosures, 2018-19. Title IX & Bias Response annual report, 2018-19 (PDF); current Institute Discrimination and Harassment Response Office; Title IX annual report archive. Denominator from MIT Facts; range follows the same students and academic staff vs students and all staff.

    Stanford Title IX disclosures, 2023-24. Stanford SHARE /​ Title IX annual reports: 2023-24, 2022-23; Stanford Daily coverage of the 2023-24 report. Denominator from Stanford Facts; range as above.

    CEA Community Health, all 2021. Julia Wise, “The community health team’s work on interpersonal harm in the community”, EA Forum, 18 August 2022 (CEA mirror). Range reflects active-vs-engaged community-size estimates (~4,700 to ~10,000), per Todd 2021.

    CEA CH sexual harassment subset. Same source as above. The subset count is my own recategorisation of the 19 cases Wise enumerates in that post; there is no separate source.

    EEOC sexual harassment charges (US). EEOC, “Sexual Harassment in Our Nation’s Workplaces”; EEOC Select Task Force on the Study of Harassment in the Workplace, June 2016. Workforce denominator from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey.

  2. ^

    One might agree that EA is only bad at handling cases or has bad ‘vibes’, but when finding these comments (and there were many more) they often seem to say EA is bad, and rarely seem to give caveats. My read is that there is a general sense across the topic of sexual harassment that EA is unusually bad and that broad cultural change is needed. I’m not claiming everyone thinks this. If you can find several widely upvoted comments which push against these or provide caveats, let me know.

  3. ^

    “When the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.” Jeff Bezos

  4. ^

    I tried to choose comments and posts that were narrowly about the topic such that upvotes were related to this.