Head of Data & Research at Our World in Data
GWWC pledge (10%) since 2018
Head of Data & Research at Our World in Data
GWWC pledge (10%) since 2018
The current implementation doesn’t include them. I guess it would be possible to do it, but they’re quite larger than Grapher charts in terms of interface, so I’m not sure we would manage to find a user-friendly way to make them fit within the width of a forum post.
I love this idea! I’ve also been thinking a lot about the lack of quick-response capabilities within EA during the pandemic, so I think it could be a very impactful project. Having coordinated Our World in Data’s work on COVID for the last two years, I’d be very happy to be in touch and contribute to anything data-science-related once you start to plan things.
Thanks for the feedback! I’ve edited the title.
Thanks for the feedback Jakub! I’ve added a clearer mention of the self-reporting aspect in the article & charts.
My (unverified) suspicion is that these people wanted to pick something that they considered to be a specific diet but that isn’t related to meat-eating and therefore wasn’t listed, e.g. ‘gluten-free’. That could also explain the correlation with age if younger people tend to adopt these ‘alternative’ diets in a higher proportion.
Strong-upvoting this. The way you could decide to invest money into expanding your social media reach would be to properly sponsor your account through ads on IG/Tw/FB. These platforms allow for precise targeting based on demographics and interests – and given the specific scope of HIA, I imagine that designing good targets would be easy enough.
Congrats guys – it’s great to see this productive collaboration become a full-fledged organization!
Where did I say anything about “giving up betting as an epistemic practice”? My post specifically listed why I know it’s good epistemic practice.
All I said was that during a crisis that involves the potential loss of money of 100,000 people, constantly suggesting 4-digit bets on public online spaces as soon as two people have the slightest disagreement may not be the most empathetic thing to do.
I’m not surprised that you would strongly disagree with this. Sorry if this is a bit blunt, but given that you very recently launched a public forecast on the love life of a community member, without their permission, to the dismay of many people on Twitter, I wouldn’t think you have a particularly calibrated frame of reference as to when we should hold off on bets.
Great question, thank you! :)
Did you mean to ask it as part of the AMA?
If so, could you please repost it as a comment there? It’s easier for coordination.
Thanks for the question!
It depends significantly on how we measure impact, which has always been tricky. As Lizka guessed below, there are multiple ways we can do this, as our impact can consist of influencing the general public (for some of our most viral pieces), “influencers” (journalists, book writers, or anyone with a significant social media presence), teachers, policymakers, etc. These can be very different paths to impact.
Some are pretty easy to measure (the general public can be roughly measured by raw pageviews). In contrast, others are much harder; influence on policymakers can be somewhat measured through mentions in things like government reports, but a lot of it happens behind closed doors (thankfully, we sometimes hear about this too, e.g., someone on our team getting a text message by a friend who works in government, saying our charts were shown in a critical meeting).
If we measure impact purely in terms of media mentions, paper citations, significant re-use, views of our charts, etc., nothing comes even close to our work on COVID-19. Both on our site, but also because it was the underlying data used by many national media on their site, the number of eyeballs on this data was quite crazy, and the rest of our content isn’t within the same order of magnitude.
A second way to answer the question would be to examine which of our articles or charts keep popping up in books, learning materials, online conversations, etc. In that regard, I think that Hannah Ritchie’s articles “You want to reduce the carbon footprint of your food? Focus on what you eat, not whether your food is local” and “What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy?” are probably the articles that have the highest cumulative impact over time.
If we zoom out, a third way of measuring impact is to ask which of our pieces seem to have shaped other people’s worldviews. In that way, Max Roser’s broader essays such as “The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better.” and “The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it” are strong foundations of our content and a significant fraction of the people who read us have probably come across them.
But overall, it’s hard to pinpoint precisely what has had the most impact. We have a long tail of 3,500 charts, so if one was ever shown to a head of state who made a different decision because of it, that could count as some of our highest direct impact ever – but we might not even be aware of that!
Thanks for the question, Vasco!
Animal welfare is an important topic that we want to cover better on OWID. The first step will be to publish more and better content on it. We plan to make significant steps toward this over the summer (stay tuned!).
However, this new content will likely focus on factory farming and related questions. I see the question of wild animal welfare as one on the edge of research, even by EA standards. In other words, more and more people are interested in it, but there’s no consensus that it constitutes one of the world’s largest problems. In many ways, from an outside (non-EA) perspective, it’s not so different from longtermism or digital sentience: something most people have never even considered as an issue, but that could become one over the next few years or decades.
Because of that, I could imagine us one day writing about the general idea of wild animal welfare, the philosophical arguments behind it, why some researchers study it, and what the numbers are. This would allow us to introduce more people to it as an “interesting angle” to add to their worldview. This could look like Max Roser’s article “The future is vast – what does this mean for our own life?”.
Thanks for the question, Angelina!
The article on longtermism and our content on AI were published in 2022. They’ve had great success (6-figure page views in both cases). I was particularly happy that we had no negative reaction to either topic, given that both could have seemed outside of our usual coverage for traditional OWID readers.
On longtermism, the reception was very positive. Max Roser’s hourglass chart had a Wait-but-Why vibe that made it particularly popular on social media. My (unsubstantiated) impression is that many people remembered that part of the article more than the broader presentation of longtermism. But if we want existential risks to be taken more seriously, getting more people to adopt a broader perspective of humanity’s past and future is probably an essential first step, so I’d say the article was very beneficial overall. Another nice aspect is that it was well-received in longtermist circles; no one seemed to think we had neglected or distorted any angle of the topic.
On AI, the impact has been more immediate. We published a new topic page, 5 articles, and 29 charts late last year. We were delighted that we could give a platform to the excellent data published by Epoch and that it was much more widely seen because of it (both on our site and in re-uses, e.g., in The Economist). Reactions to the 5 articles seemed very positive as well; “Technology over the long run” and “The brief history of artificial intelligence” were the most shared among them.
The most significant limitation is that this was all published just a few weeks before the ChatGPT/GPT-4 craze started. If anything, we’re even more convinced now than at the time that AI is one of the world’s largest problems, and we’re working on an interim update of our content.
Hi nalthaus, thanks for the question! Calculating a population-weighted global average for Self-reported life satisfaction is on our backlog of issues, so this will be tackled at some point! We’ll most likely add continental averages as well.
Your second suggestion touches on a larger issue that we’re often considering: how to give more freedom to users to (dis)aggregate data in a way that we don’t want to pre-generate ourselves. “Life satisfaction across Scandinavian countries” is a great example of such a request. We have yet to come up with the right ideas (and resources to implement them!) to solve this problem, but it’s on the long-term roadmap of our Product & Design team.
Thanks for the question, Kei!
When choosing the topics we would ideally cover on OWID, we aim to be quite broad in our approach. Our tagline is that we publish “research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems” and voluntarily apply a broad definition of the “world’s largest problems”. We don’t try to follow a specific framework or list of questions (compared to how 80,000 Hours defines the highest-priority problems).
But of course, even though we wish we could cover hundreds of important topics, we only have limited resources and must make choices regarding marginal prioritization. Our principles broadly follow EA’s ITN framework, although with a slightly adapted version of each concept.
- Importance: is the topic a big problem for the world? Does it kill people, generate suffering (physical or mental), or cause societal instability? Or, on the positive side, does it unlock potential progress for the world, or preserve something valuable?
- Tractability: is there enough quality data on this topic for us to cover it? Given that OWID’s mission consists of relying first and foremost on data to explain important issues, we need reliable, accurate, up-to-date data on a topic if we’re going to cover it.
- Neglectedness: is the topic accurately covered by other media, publications, or institutions? Do we often spot confusion or misconceptions about it online? Is there good data on a topic ready to be used somewhere, but it’s been ignored or misunderstood for lack of good visualizations and presentation?
In deciding how to prioritize our work, I’d say that importance and tractability are filters that make a topic “OWID material” or not. Neglectedness will typically lead us to prioritize something over the rest of our (very long) wishlist.
Hey Ollie – thanks for the question!
I’ve engaged with a few activist and political communities in the past, primarily around environmental issues and Green politics. My overall take is that I would find it hard today to be part of these communities compared to the ones that interest me today. From what I remember, epistemic practices tended to be very bad, with lots of motivated reasoning, cherry-picking, various biases, etc. It doesn’t necessarily mean the people I met were wrong, but how they made up their minds about issues seems very flawed in retrospect. Compared to this, the epistemic quality of Effective Altruism appears to be its main competitive advantage compared to other communities I encountered. Many people in the community are genuinely cause-neutral and truly adopt (or at least try to adopt) a scout mindset.
If anything seems better about these communities, it’s the fact that their direct engagement with politics, the media, etc., makes them much more aware of the importance of public relations and not being perceived as bad actors. My perception – reinforced by everything that happened in EA in late 2022 – is that many EAs see public relations as unnecessary (sometimes even bad, when “PR” is used as a derogatory term). I’ve met quite a few people who seem to think that the way non-EA people perceive EA doesn’t matter at all, as long as EA people are saying things that are evidence-based and smart. I believe this is deeply wrong; a community of smart and “very-right” people won’t have much impact if it has such a bad image that no one dares involve it in public discussions.
Interestingly, in the case of EA, this dismissive attitude toward image sometimes applies to individuals as well. Both online and at EAG, I’ve met more people than I expected who seemed to disregard the benefits of social norms, politeness, kindness, etc., and who behaved in a way that seemed to say “I’m too smart to be slowed down by these stupid things”. (To be clear, I don’t think the majority of EAs are like this at all; but the prevalence of this behavior seems much higher than in the general population.)
Another thing that comes to mind, valued by people outside EA but shrugged off by people inside EA, is institutional stability. From having worked or collaborated with quite a few different companies, political parties, research organizations, NGOs, etc., I think there is genuine value in building institutions on solid foundations. For EA organizations, this relates to many questions people have raised since the FTX debacle: who should run EA organizations? What should their boards look like? What share of board members should be EAs? What share of board members can overlap between very close EA organizations? I think many EAs have shrugged off these questions as boring, but the long-term stability of the overall EA community depends on them.
Funding runway also falls under that category: many EAs reason about funding stability as if every skilled person was happy to work at an organization that could run out of money in less than a year. Again, I don’t think this is a good way of planning things out for the long term. This recent post that described NTI as “too rich” for holding more than 1.5 years’ expenditure, is one example of this bad habit.
Better data publishing practices are probably the number 1 answer. My team spends heaps of time importing data that is hard to access and process, poorly documented, or contains obvious mistakes. This applies to virtually every type of data publisher, whether government, big international organizations, NGOs, companies, research teams…
Better data harmonization between governments would also be tremendously helpful. Across many topics, national agencies tend to record and analyze things differently, making the resulting figures hard to compare. Organizations like the UN, WHO, World Bank, and OECD, work hard to bridge the gap between national methodologies. Still, a world where governments would stop reinventing the wheel whenever they need to measure something would be great!
There are categories of data that are indeed still relatively inaccessible. One example is satellite data, which is “gatekept” by technological difficulty, and the existing commercial data is costly. High-quality open-domain satellite data would be an excellent opportunity to measure trends like land use, economic activity, pollution, etc.
Global energy data has also been in a strange situation for the last few years, with the data locked behind a paywall by the International Energy Agency. We’ve been campaigning publicly for this to change, and there have been encouraging signs from the IEA, but nothing concrete has happened yet.
Hey James – great question, thanks!
100% of the content we publish is planned, decided, and created by our team, without direct input from funders or donors.
Generally, we work hard to convince funders to give us unrestricted grants. But some grants we receive are restricted, which means they are tied to a list of deliverables. When we’ve accepted restricted grants:
They’ve only ever been tied to general, non-specific outputs such as “expanding our work on COVID-19”, “producing a Global Health Explorer”, “maintaining the content in our SDG Tracker”, or “improving our content on democracy”. This means funders never tell us how to produce this content, what the data should show, what insights users should learn, what they should think about an issue after reading it, etc.
Funders never get to review or influence the deliverables at any point. Grant reports are typically sent once a year, in which we tell funders, “This year, we produced these things as part of the deliverables for this grant”, and link to the content live on our site.
The Longview grant was an unrestricted grant allocated to OWID in 2020, which we used for product development across the site (see our 2020 annual report, page 9). Our article on longtermism was published around two years later, and was entirely disconnected from this donation.
(As a slightly pedantic point: in a very vague and indirect way, there’s of course a link there: Longview sees OWID as a charity that cares about the long-term flourishing of humanity, and so they gave us money. And because OWID is a charity that cares about the long-term flourishing of humanity, we thought it’d be great to introduce our audience to longtermism. So these things are not entirely disconnected from a sociological point of view. But in terms of money, deliverables, and editorial freedom, we always make sure they’re wholly disconnected.)
Hi Lizka – thank you for your thoughtful question!
Our direct engagement with policymakers is somewhat limited, but we do have occasional opportunities to present our work to large international organizations like the UN and WHO. And we know from testimonies and occasional public reports that OWID is also considered very helpful by policymakers at the national level. We know that policymakers, or their aides, value the clarity and conciseness of our work. OWID’s approach allows them to comprehend the broader picture quickly, which we believe is mainly due to what we now label as “key insights”. This overview provides an immediate understanding of a topic without diving into specifics.
When a more detailed analysis is necessary, our platform allows policymakers to drill down into the data, explore specific time series, and interpret detailed data points. This functionality is beneficial when policymakers want to understand what the data implies, or perhaps bring charts to a meeting, without necessarily jumping to conclusions.
As for bottlenecks in evidence-based policy similar to those in forecasting, we’ve identified “technical text” as a significant challenge. By technical text, we mean all the information that needs to be presented alongside a chart to make sense, be accurately understood, and be placed into a broader context. This could mean explaining key terms, linking to in-depth articles, discussing the data source, the data’s age, and its limitations, etc. We strongly believe that many of our charts could be misunderstood or even misleading without this accompanying text. It’s in this space that we feel we bring added value, in contrast to chart-catalog websites like Statista or, to some extent, Wikipedia, which provide the raw data but often lack in-depth explanations.
So, while data is indeed powerful, it’s the contextual, nuanced information that often determines the effectiveness of data-based approaches in policymaking.
We also did this for EA France a few days before EAGx Oxford (on Tuesday), and it was indeed very helpful. We answered many questions that people had about 1o1, explained how to use Swapcard (some people hadn’t quite realized how important it would be during the conference), the ‘etiquette’ for contacting people on the app, important physical & mental health tips, etc.
I’d also suggest creating a WhatsApp or Messenger group. It’s very useful for practical coordination before (hotels, admin stuff, COVID restrictions, etc.) and during the event, and gives first-timers the feeling of going to the conference as part of a larger group.