Michael Noetel 🔸

• Michael Noetel 🔸 30 Dec 2025 22:47 UTC

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  on: EAGxAus­trala­sia 2025 Ret­ro­spec­tive—It went well and we learnt things that might be use­ful for you

  This write up was like your organisation of the conference: clear, efficient, honest, helpful and supportive, overall very high ROI. Thank you both for your incredible work this year. Our community it so lucky to have you.

• Michael Noetel 🔸 24 Feb 2025 3:34 UTC

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  on: ‘AI Emer­gency Eject Cri­te­ria’ Survey

  Where did this project end up? Any public results?

• Michael Noetel 🔸 21 Feb 2025 3:46 UTC

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  in reply to: Matthew_Barnett’s comment on: Matthew_Bar­nett’s Shortform

  How do you feel about this framework?

  

• Michael Noetel 🔸 21 Jun 2024 8:55 UTC

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  in reply to: Richard Y Chappell🔸’s comment on: A tril­ogy on anti-philan­thropic misdirection

  Amazing. Thank you!

• Michael Noetel 🔸 28 May 2024 9:04 UTC

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  in reply to: MikhailSamin’s comment on: If try­ing to com­mu­ni­cate about AI risks, make it vivid

  Yes all data and code are on the osf, but to my chagrin they’re in spss. Yes good observation re the strawberry, and the imprecision around the outcome.

If try­ing to com­mu­ni­cate about AI risks, make it vivid

• Michael Noetel 🔸 28 Apr 2024 22:59 UTC

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  in reply to: SebastianSchmidt’s comment on: Aus­trali­ans are con­cerned about AI risks and ex­pect strong gov­ern­ment action

  Our project took approximately 2 weeks FTE for 3 people (most was parallelisable). Probably the best reference class.

• Michael Noetel 🔸 16 Apr 2024 3:22 UTC

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  on: A tril­ogy on anti-philan­thropic misdirection

  Richard I really love your writing, but as a parent I find it so hard to just sit and read stuff. 95% of the forum’s content I get via the podcast feeds. Now, I don’t expect everyone to go full Experimental History or Joe Carlsmith and audio narrate each post, but unless you’re wanting to keep things on Substack turf, you might consider cross-posting the full thing here (like Bentham’s Bulldog did for the critique of the wired article). I don’t ask this of everyone, so please consider this a compliment: I love your work and want it in my ears.^[1]

  1. ^

     That sounded weirder than I meant it to

• Michael Noetel 🔸 5 Apr 2024 8:52 UTC

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  in reply to: JWS 🔸’s comment on: On Leif We­nar’s Ab­surdly Un­con­vinc­ing Cri­tique Of Effec­tive Altru­ism

  Hanania gives some interesting arguments for why here: https://​​www.richardhanania.com/​​p/​​effective-altruism-thinks-youre-hitler

• Michael Noetel 🔸 4 Apr 2024 10:00 UTC

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  in reply to: Michael Noetel 🔸’s comment on: Should EA ‘com­mu­ni­ties’ be ‘pro­fes­sional as­so­ci­a­tions’?

  One lens to look at this is less through the ‘we’re all similarly qualified’ like the AMA but more through the ‘we’re working with the same values’ or ‘we’re working on similar problems’ like the Institute of Public Administration Australia. These have no qualification requirements. Still they offer similar things to what ea communities try to do https://​​qld.ipaa.org.au/​​for-individuals/​​

• Michael Noetel 🔸 4 Apr 2024 9:41 UTC

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  in reply to: James Herbert’s comment on: Should EA ‘com­mu­ni­ties’ be ‘pro­fes­sional as­so­ci­a­tions’?

  These examples at the end are interesting and worth me mulling over. I do get the sense that Greenpeace or the NAACP would do many of the things you do

• Michael Noetel 🔸 4 Apr 2024 9:29 UTC

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  in reply to: Chris Leong’s comment on: Should EA ‘com­mu­ni­ties’ be ‘pro­fes­sional as­so­ci­a­tions’?

  That’s a good point. All AMA members have to meet certain criteria. I can see how ’’8 week reading group” pales in comparison to a medical degree.

• Michael Noetel 🔸 4 Apr 2024 9:20 UTC

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  in reply to: Bella’s comment on: Should EA ‘com­mu­ni­ties’ be ‘pro­fes­sional as­so­ci­a­tions’?

  Fixed thx

• Michael Noetel 🔸 4 Apr 2024 5:04 UTC

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  on: Crowd­sourced Overview of Fund­ing for Re­gional Com­mu­nity Build­ing Orgs

  I’m interested in the authors’ take on this question: Change my mind: EA national organisations should be ‘professional associations’ not ‘communities’

[Question] Should EA ‘com­mu­ni­ties’ be ‘pro­fes­sional as­so­ci­a­tions’?

• Michael Noetel 🔸 2 Apr 2024 22:10 UTC

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  in reply to: SebastianSchmidt’s comment on: Aus­trali­ans are con­cerned about AI risks and ex­pect strong gov­ern­ment action

  I’ll look into it. The census data part seems okay. Collecting a representative sample would be harder (e.g., literacy rates are lower, so I don’t know how to estimate responses for those groups).

• Michael Noetel 🔸 25 Mar 2024 4:40 UTC

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  in reply to: PeterSlattery’s comment on: Aus­trali­ans are con­cerned about AI risks and ex­pect strong gov­ern­ment action

  Thanks Peter. Fixed!

• Michael Noetel 🔸 10 Mar 2024 4:15 UTC

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  in reply to: SebastianSchmidt’s comment on: Aus­trali­ans are con­cerned about AI risks and ex­pect strong gov­ern­ment action

  Thanks Seb. I’m not that surprised—public surveys in the Existential Risk Persuasion tournament were pretty high (5% for AI). I don’t think most people are good at calibrating probabilities between 0.001% and 10% (myself included).

  I don’t have strong hypotheses why people ‘mostly support’ something they also want treated with such care. My weak ones would be ‘people like technology but when asked about what the government should do, want them to keep them safe (remove biggest threats).’ For example, Australians support getting nuclear submarines but also support the ban on nuclear weapons. I don’t necessarily see this as a contradiction—”keep me safe” priorities would lead to both. I don’t know if our answers would have changed if we made the trade-offs more salient (e.g., here’s what you’d lose if we took this policy action prioritising risks). Interested in suggestions for how we could do that better.

  It’d be easy for us to run in other countries. We’ll put the data and code online soon. If someone’s keen to run the ‘get it in the hands of people who want to use it’ piece, we could also do the ‘run the survey and make a technical report one’. It’s all in R so the marginal cost of another country is low. We’d need access to census data to do the statistical adjustment to estimate population agreement (but that should be easy to see if possible).

Aus­trali­ans are con­cerned about AI risks and ex­pect strong gov­ern­ment action

• Michael Noetel 🔸 16 Feb 2024 6:36 UTC

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  on: So­cial sci­ence re­search we’d like to see on global health and wellbe­ing [Open Philan­thropy]

  As a social scientist, these lists are very helpful, thank you team. It’s useful to be able to point students and colleagues to open questions that are immediately decision-relevant.