My reading (and of course I could be completlely wrong) is that SBF wanted to invest in Twitter (he seems to have subsequently pitched the same deal through Michael Grimes), and Will was helping him out. I don’t imagine Will felt it any of his business to advise SBF as to whether or not this was a good move. And I imagine SBF expected the deal to make money, and therefore not to have any cost for his intended giving.
Part of the issue here is that people have been accounting the bulk of SBF’s net worth as “EA money”. If you phrase the question as “Should EA invest in Twitter?” the answer is no. EA should probably also not invest in Robinhood or SRM. If SBF’s assets truly were EA assets, we ought to have liquidated them long ago and either spent them or invested them reasonably. But they weren’t.
It’s no concern of mine how OP spends its money, but since it’s come up here: I don’t think your cost estimate can be correct.
Firstly, OP doesn’t have the asset, so its resale value is irrelevant to you. It’s all very well to say that proceeds would be used for EVF’s general funding which would funge against OP’s future grants, but (a) there doesn’t seem to be anything stopping EVF from using the proceeds for some specific project which OP wouldn’t otherwise fund and (b) it’s possible to imagine a scenario in which OP ceases to fund EVF and there’s nothing to funge against. It seems to me that OP should just treat it as a grant of £15m (or whatever it was) to EVF. Presumably when you publish a grant report, that’s what it will say.
Secondly, this has been discussed elsewhere, but the cost can’t be a flat few million from EVF’s perspective. Consider for example the case where the project is huge success and the property is held in perpetuity. Ex hypothesi it was a sound grant, but the whole £15m (or whatever) has been expended, plus some further amount for ongoing maintenance.
One possible counterfactual is that EVF buys the property and lets it for income. Gross rental yields in Oxfordshire are 4-5%, so EVF would receive a counterfactual income of at least £600k. In fact a property like that would be difficult to let as is: there are various ways one might generate income from it in practice, including running it as a conference centre for profit, but £600k pa should be an approximate floor on a reasonable commercial income (assuming the sale price to have been fair). By using the property for its own purposes EVF foregoes that income, so the cost to it is at least that much per year, and the total cost will depend on how long it’s held. By definition, the income considered in perpetuity will capitalise at the fair purchase price.
But in fact EVF would never have bought the property for that purpose, for at least two reasons. Firstly, EVF doesn’t endorse investing to give. Secondly, if EVF did want to invest £15m for income, buying a single property in Oxfordshire would not represente a prudent investment strategy. It’s a very niche property and the resale value is going to depend on what purchasers happen to be in the market in the material time. Of course that might work out very favourably, but the opposite possibility is approximately equally likely.
Since in general EVF considers it can do better things with £15m than invest it for 4% yield, the opportunity cost must be higher than £600k pa. In fact EVF should probably know what it’s discount rate is, which would make the calculation straightforward.