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(Just want to mention that I’m guessing it’s best if people centralise their forecasts and comments on the LW thread, and just use this link post as a pointer to that. Though Amanda can of course say if she disagrees :) )
The one thing I will say here, just in case anyone sees my example forecast here but doesn’t follow the link, is that I’d give very little weight to both my forecast and my reasoning. Reasons for that include that:
I’m not an experienced forecaster
I don’t have deep knowledge on relevant specifics (e.g., AI paradigms, state-of-the-art in biotech)
I didn’t spend a huge amount of time on my forecast, and used pretty quick-and-dirty methods
I drew on existing forecasts to some extent (in particular, the LessWrong Elicit AI timelines thread and Ord’s x-risk estimates). So if you updated on those forecasts and then also updated on my forecast as if it was independent of them, you’d be double-counting some views and evidence
So I’m mostly just very excited to see other people’s forecasts, and even more excited to see how they reason about and break down the question!
Good note, agreed that it’s better to centralize forecasts on the LW thread!
I thought that was exactly what Metaculus has been established for. In which way is this different ?
I think this is a good point. I think people probably underrate the costs of duplicate/redundant work. That said:
1) You can’t see detailed predictions of other individual people on Metaculus, only the aggregated prediction by one of Metaculus’s favored weightings.
2) The commenting system on Metaculus is more barebones than the EA Forum or LessWrong (eg you can’t attach pictures, there’s no downvote functionality).
3) The userbases are different.