Impact Markets link: https://app.impactmarkets.io/profile/clfljvejd0012oppubuwne2k2
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Karma: 1,192
It would probably be really valuable if people could forecast the ability to build/deploy AGI to within roughly 1 year, as it could inform many people’s career planning and policy analysis (e.g., when to clamp down on export controls). In this regard, an error/uncertainty of 3 years could potentially have a huge impact.
Yeah, being able to have such forecasting precision would be amazing. It’s too bad it’s unrealistic (what forecasting process would enable such magic?). It would mean we could see exactly when it’s coming and make extremely tailored plans that could be super high-leverage.
This post was an excellent read, and I think you should publish it on LessWrong too.
I have the intuition that, at the moment, getting an answer to “how fast is AI takeoff going to be?” has the most strategic leverage and that this topic influences the probability we’re going extinct due to AI the most, together with timelines (although it seems to me that we’re less uncertain about timelines than takeoff speeds). I also think that a big part of why the other AI forecasting questions are important is because they inform takeoff speeds (and timelines). Do you agree with these intuitions?
Relatedly: If you had to rank AI-forecasting questions according to their strategic importance and influence on P(doom), what would those rankings look like?
One class of examples could be when there’s an adversarial or “dangerous” environment. For example:
Bots generating low-quality content.
Voting rings.
Many newcomers entering at once, outnumbering the locals by a lot. Example: I wouldn’t be comfortable directing many people from Rational Animations to the EA Forum and LW, but a karma system based on Eigen Karma might make this much less dangerous.
Another class of examples could be when a given topic requires some complex technical understanding. In that case, a community might want only to see posts that are put forward by people who have demonstrated a certain level of technical knowledge. Then they could use EigenKarma to select them. Of course, there must be some way to enable the discovery of new users, but how much of a problem this is depends on implementation details. For example, you could have an unfiltered tab and a filtered one, or you could give higher visibility to new users. There could be many potential solutions.
In my understanding, EigenKarma only creates bubbles if it also acts as a default content filter. If, for example, it is just displayed near usernames, it shouldn’t have this effect but would still retain its use as a signal of trustworthiness.
Also, sometimes creating a bubble—a protected space—is exactly what you want to achieve, so it might be the correct tool to use in specific contexts.
It’s the first time I read about this, so please correct me if I’m misunderstanding.
Personally, I find the idea very interesting.
Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps: The Animation
I have to squint a lot to see the sense in this mapping
I am CHAOTIC Good MUAAHAHA
The design of the website is quite bad
Why do you consider it bad? Nothing jumps out to me that makes me think “this is bad/ugly”. Your other points make more sense to me though.
I’ve done a couple of half-hearted tries, and the results have been very distant from something I’d use for the channel. I should try again with more effort.
Yes, I’ve received and read the script, and the contest is still open
No winners or job offers yet, but I have still to decide on some, although I’ve read every submission. I reached out to a small minority of people with feedback when (but not every time) I thought their script could be improved easily enough to pass my bar. If you want feedback or are curious about your standing in the contest, please send an e-mail.
[Question] What videos should Rational Animations make?
Yes, it is still active
Thanks :)
Cross-posting with multiple authors is broken as a feature.
When Matthew had to approve co-authorship, the post appeared on the home page, but if clicked on, it only showed an error message.
Then I moved the post to drafts, and when I interacted with it using the three dots on the right side, there was another error message.
Now Matthew doesn’t appear as a coauthor here.
Could a single alien message destroy us?
Hi!
I haven’t made any announcement yet, but I’d be potentially interested in hiring people as contractors for Rational Animations in the following roles:
- Scriptwriter (also see this contest)
- Fact-checker
- Community manager
- Social Media manager
- Illustrator
If you think Rational Animations could be a good fit for some people and clears your bar for “high-impact”, I’d be happy if you sent some candidates my way. They/you can reach out at rationalanimations@gmail.com.
Also, important disclaimer: I’m not sure how fast I’ll be able to make hiring decisions, and some people may need to get a job soon. Therefore, anyone who applies shouldn’t wait for an answer from me if they need a job fast.
We have funding until at least ~ March.
I’m not sure currently, but I might increase the prize and remove the deadline.
There could be an issue since Rob Miles is the narrator. But if the story is really good and significantly benefits from using the first person, we can figure something out, like putting a disclaimer at the beginning.
Hard agree, the shoggoth memes are great.