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Cluelessness

TagLast edit: 3 May 2021 15:56 UTC by MichaelA

Cluelessness is radical uncertainty about the long-term effects of our actions.

Related entries

accidental harm | alternatives to expected value theory | expected value | forecasting | indirect long-term effects | long-range forecasting | model uncertainty | value of information

Ev­i­dence, clue­less­ness, and the long term—Hilary Greaves

velutvulpes1 Nov 2020 17:25 UTC
79 points
36 comments19 min readEA link

What con­se­quences?

Milan_Griffes23 Nov 2017 18:27 UTC
28 points
22 commentsEA link

Do­ing good while clueless

Milan_Griffes15 Feb 2018 5:04 UTC
39 points
6 commentsEA link

The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism (Tarsney, 2020)

MichaelA4 Apr 2021 3:09 UTC
59 points
28 comments2 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Even Allo­ca­tion Strat­egy un­der High Model Ambiguity

MichaelStJules31 Dec 2020 9:10 UTC
14 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

“Just take the ex­pected value” – a pos­si­ble re­ply to con­cerns about cluelessness

Milan_Griffes21 Dec 2017 19:37 UTC
14 points
31 commentsEA link

How tractable is clue­less­ness?

Milan_Griffes29 Dec 2017 18:52 UTC
16 points
2 commentsEA link

EA read­ing list: clue­less­ness and epistemic modesty

richard_ngo3 Aug 2020 9:23 UTC
23 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory_Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
45 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
84 points
24 comments12 min readEA link

Hedg­ing against deep and moral uncertainty

MichaelStJules12 Sep 2020 23:44 UTC
42 points
10 comments9 min readEA link

In defence of epistemic modesty

Gregory_Lewis29 Oct 2017 19:15 UTC
93 points
49 commentsEA link

Some thoughts on defer­ence and in­side-view models

Buck28 May 2020 5:37 UTC
114 points
31 comments10 min readEA link

An­dreas Mo­gensen’s “Max­i­mal Clue­less­ness”

Pablo25 Sep 2019 11:18 UTC
57 points
31 comments1 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Solv­ing the moral clue­less­ness prob­lem with Bayesian joint prob­a­bil­ity distributions

ben.smith28 Feb 2021 9:17 UTC
9 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

Hilary Greaves: Ev­i­dence, clue­less­ness and the long term

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Pos­si­ble mis­con­cep­tions about (strong) longtermism

jackmalde9 Mar 2021 17:58 UTC
76 points
43 comments19 min readEA link

Chris­tian Tarsney: Can we pre­dictably im­prove the far fu­ture?

EA Global18 Oct 2019 7:40 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Will MacAskill: Why should effec­tive al­tru­ists em­brace un­cer­tainty?

EA Global4 Dec 2018 16:23 UTC
32 points
2 commentsEA link

Hay­den Wilk­in­son: Do­ing good in an in­finite, chaotic world

EA Global18 Feb 2020 23:29 UTC
27 points
1 comment18 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: Bibliog­ra­phy and Appendix

kokotajlod20 Nov 2018 17:34 UTC
9 points
0 comments24 min readEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: De­fus­ing the Ini­tial Worry and Steel­man­ning the Problem

kokotajlod10 Nov 2018 9:12 UTC
24 points
6 commentsEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: Solutions

kokotajlod14 Nov 2018 16:04 UTC
20 points
5 commentsEA link

Are GiveWell Top Char­i­ties Too Spec­u­la­tive?

MichaelDickens21 Dec 2015 4:05 UTC
17 points
59 commentsEA link

If you value fu­ture peo­ple, why do you con­sider near term effects?

Alex HT8 Apr 2020 15:21 UTC
88 points
76 comments13 min readEA link
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