Bayesian epistemology

TagLast edit: 14 Jul 2022 14:57 UTC by Pablo

Bayesian epistemology (sometimes referred to as Bayesianism) is the broader epistemology informed by Bayes’ theorem.

Datasets that change the odds you exist

Vasco Grilo🔸24 May 2025 17:28 UTC

16 points

1 comment6 min readEA link

(dynomight.net)

Uncertainty over time and Bayesian updating

David Bernard25 Oct 2023 15:51 UTC

66 points

2 comments28 min readEA link

Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation

Bob Fischer11 Oct 2023 9:15 UTC

221 points

30 comments15 min readEA link

Deference for Bayesians

[deleted]13 Feb 2021 12:33 UTC

102 points

30 comments7 min readEA link

A Tier List for Epistemic Methods: What Actually Works for Figuring Out How to Do Good

Linch13 Aug 2025 22:49 UTC

26 points

7 comments1 min readEA link

(linch.substack.com)

Bayesian Mindset

Holden Karnofsky21 Dec 2021 19:54 UTC

74 points

19 comments25 min readEA link

How modest should you be?

[deleted]28 Dec 2020 17:47 UTC

26 points

10 comments7 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Michael Huemer on the case for Bayesian statistics

[deleted]7 Feb 2023 17:52 UTC

20 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

The Geometric Expectation

Scott Garrabrant23 Nov 2022 18:05 UTC

26 points

0 comments4 min readEA link

Solutions to problems with Bayesianism

Bob Jacobs [inactive]4 Nov 2023 12:15 UTC

27 points

2 comments21 min readEA link

[Link] The Optimizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC

94 points

61 comments1 min readEA link

EA should blurt

RobBensinger22 Nov 2022 21:57 UTC

156 points

26 comments5 min readEA link

Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future [review paper 2023]

EdoArad🔸10 Jan 2024 9:32 UTC

9 points

1 comment2 min readEA link

(arxiv.org)

Controlling for a thinker’s big idea

Vasco Grilo🔸21 Oct 2023 7:56 UTC

60 points

11 comments8 min readEA link

(magnusvinding.com)

Bayes is Out-Dated, and You’re Doing it Wrong

Anthony Repetto25 Feb 2023 23:25 UTC

−17 points

5 comments4 min readEA link

Project ‘Sophie’: An Architectural Concept for Optimizing Institutional Decision-Making

Simon Markus P.3 Nov 2025 14:30 UTC

3 points

0 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Alan Hájek, philosopher of probability, Bayesianism, expected value and counterfatuals?

Robert_Wiblin1 Jul 2022 13:23 UTC

25 points

12 comments1 min readEA link

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott Garrabrant22 Nov 2022 17:19 UTC

46 points

2 comments9 min readEA link

Keeping “Epistemics” Broad: An Early Exploration

Ozzie Gooen3 Jun 2025 20:59 UTC

11 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Bayes’ rule: Guide

EA Handbook16 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC

15 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

(arbital.com)

Should you go with your best guess?: Against precise Bayesianism and related views

Anthony DiGiovanni 🔸27 Jan 2025 20:25 UTC

86 points

4 comments22 min readEA link

[Opzionale] Guida alla regola di Bayes

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 11:10 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readEA link

(arbital.com)

We can’t put numbers on everything and trying to weakens our collective epistemics

ConcernedEAs8 Mar 2023 15:09 UTC

9 points

0 comments11 min readEA link

Bayes’ Theorem explained

Tomer_Goloboy28 Mar 2022 0:40 UTC

4 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Global Health & Development—Beyond the Streetlight

Richard Sedlmayr2 Jul 2022 18:56 UTC

36 points

4 comments6 min readEA link

A case for ignoring unawareness

tobycrisford 🔸17 Aug 2026 14:25 UTC

7 points

0 comments17 min readEA link

Against Modest Epistemology

EliezerYudkowsky14 Nov 2017 21:26 UTC

18 points

11 comments15 min readEA link

New Global Priorities Institute working papers—and an updated version of “The case for strong longtermism”

Global Priorities Institute9 Aug 2021 16:57 UTC

46 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased)

Vasco Grilo🔸18 Apr 2022 13:10 UTC

15 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Future Fund Worldview Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC

−8 points

24 comments13 min readEA link

Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of Unawareness

Jim Buhler20 Oct 2025 13:17 UTC

43 points

1 comment34 min readEA link

EV Maximization for Humans

Sharmake3 Sep 2022 23:44 UTC

12 points

0 comments4 min readEA link

EAs Should Use Less Bayesian Reasoning

James Brobin2 Aug 2026 21:06 UTC

51 points

29 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] What do EA’s think about Bayesian inferences versus other types?

Noah Scales4 Feb 2023 11:09 UTC

4 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

Anecdotes Can Be Strong Evidence and Bayes Theorem Proves It

FCCC13 Mar 2022 4:37 UTC

15 points

5 comments4 min readEA link

A list of resources on Cluelessness

Jim Buhler17 Nov 2025 13:59 UTC

49 points

3 comments4 min readEA link

Subjective Probabilities should be Sharp

Vasco Grilo🔸10 Jul 2026 16:47 UTC

25 points

46 comments6 min readEA link

(www.princeton.edu)

A Note Against the Maximality Rule

JohannWolfgang17 Aug 2026 7:55 UTC

5 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

Visualisation of Probability Mass

brook23 Jan 2023 19:39 UTC

2 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

My P(doom) is 17.42%. Here’s Why.

Liam Robins6 Aug 2026 20:48 UTC

26 points

0 comments12 min readEA link

(thelimestack.substack.com)

Lady Liberty, she may have taken a knee, but she ain’t out of the fight yet.

Anti-Golem9 Jun 2025 13:59 UTC

−2 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

Unawareness as a computational constraint

Ben_West🔸17 Aug 2026 14:38 UTC

18 points

4 comments8 min readEA link

A new Heuristic to Update on the Credences of Others

CAM16 Jan 2023 11:35 UTC

22 points

4 comments20 min readEA link

Bayesian epistemology

Further reading

Related entries