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Bayesian epistemology

TagLast edit: 14 Jul 2022 14:57 UTC by Pablo

Bayesian epistemology (sometimes referred to as Bayesianism) is the broader epistemology informed by Bayes’ theorem.

Further reading

LessWrong (2020) Bayesianism, LessWrong Wiki.

Related entries

Bayes’ theorem | decision theory | epistemic deference | epistemology | rationality

Datasets that change the odds you exist

Vasco Grilo🔸24 May 2025 17:28 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(dynomight.net)

Uncer­tainty over time and Bayesian updating

David Bernard25 Oct 2023 15:51 UTC
62 points
2 comments28 min readEA link

Causes and Uncer­tainty: Re­think­ing Value in Expectation

Bob Fischer11 Oct 2023 9:15 UTC
221 points
30 comments15 min readEA link

Defer­ence for Bayesians

John G. Halstead13 Feb 2021 12:33 UTC
102 points
30 comments7 min readEA link

A Tier List for Epistemic Meth­ods: What Ac­tu­ally Works for Figur­ing Out How to Do Good

Linch13 Aug 2025 22:49 UTC
26 points
7 comments1 min readEA link
(linch.substack.com)

Bayesian Mindset

Holden Karnofsky21 Dec 2021 19:54 UTC
74 points
19 comments25 min readEA link

How mod­est should you be?

John G. Halstead28 Dec 2020 17:47 UTC
26 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Michael Hue­mer on the case for Bayesian statistics

John G. Halstead7 Feb 2023 17:52 UTC
20 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott Garrabrant23 Nov 2022 18:05 UTC
26 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Solu­tions to prob­lems with Bayesianism

Bob Jacobs4 Nov 2023 12:15 UTC
27 points
2 comments21 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC
94 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

EA should blurt

RobBensinger22 Nov 2022 21:57 UTC
156 points
26 comments5 min readEA link

Prior knowl­edge elic­i­ta­tion: The past, pre­sent, and fu­ture [re­view pa­per 2023]

EdoArad10 Jan 2024 9:32 UTC
9 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Con­trol­ling for a thinker’s big idea

Vasco Grilo🔸21 Oct 2023 7:56 UTC
60 points
11 comments8 min readEA link
(magnusvinding.com)

Bayes is Out-Dated, and You’re Do­ing it Wrong

Anthony Repetto25 Feb 2023 23:25 UTC
−17 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Pro­ject ‘So­phie’: An Ar­chi­tec­tural Con­cept for Op­ti­miz­ing In­sti­tu­tional De­ci­sion-Making

Simon Markus P.3 Nov 2025 14:30 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Alan Há­jek, philoso­pher of prob­a­bil­ity, Bayesi­anism, ex­pected value and coun­ter­fat­u­als?

Robert_Wiblin1 Jul 2022 13:23 UTC
25 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott Garrabrant22 Nov 2022 17:19 UTC
46 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Keep­ing “Epistemics” Broad: An Early Exploration

Ozzie Gooen3 Jun 2025 20:59 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Bayes’ rule: Guide

EA Handbook16 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
14 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

Should you go with your best guess?: Against pre­cise Bayesi­anism and re­lated views

Anthony DiGiovanni27 Jan 2025 20:25 UTC
85 points
3 comments22 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Guida alla re­gola di Bayes

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 11:10 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

We can’t put num­bers on ev­ery­thing and try­ing to weak­ens our col­lec­tive epistemics

ConcernedEAs8 Mar 2023 15:09 UTC
9 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Bayes’ The­o­rem explained

Tomer_Goloboy28 Mar 2022 0:40 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Global Health & Devel­op­ment—Beyond the Streetlight

Richard Sedlmayr2 Jul 2022 18:56 UTC
36 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Against Modest Epistemology

EliezerYudkowsky14 Nov 2017 21:26 UTC
18 points
11 comments15 min readEA link

New Global Pri­ori­ties In­sti­tute work­ing pa­pers—and an up­dated ver­sion of “The case for strong longter­mism”

Global Priorities Institute9 Aug 2021 16:57 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

My notes on: Why we can’t take ex­pected value es­ti­mates liter­ally (even when they’re un­bi­ased)

Vasco Grilo🔸18 Apr 2022 13:10 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Fu­ture Fund Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC
−8 points
24 comments13 min readEA link

Dis­cus­sions of Longter­mism should fo­cus on the prob­lem of Unawareness

Jim Buhler20 Oct 2025 13:17 UTC
40 points
1 comment34 min readEA link

EV Max­i­miza­tion for Humans

Sharmake3 Sep 2022 23:44 UTC
12 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What do EA’s think about Bayesian in­fer­ences ver­sus other types?

Noah Scales4 Feb 2023 11:09 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Anec­dotes Can Be Strong Ev­i­dence and Bayes The­o­rem Proves It

FCCC13 Mar 2022 4:37 UTC
15 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

A list of re­sources on Cluelessness

Jim Buhler17 Nov 2025 13:59 UTC
32 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Vi­su­al­i­sa­tion of Prob­a­bil­ity Mass

brook23 Jan 2023 19:39 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Lady Liberty, she may have taken a knee, but she ain’t out of the fight yet.

Anti-Golem9 Jun 2025 13:59 UTC
−2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

a_mai16 Jan 2023 11:35 UTC
22 points
4 comments20 min readEA link