It may be worth integrating content from this article: https://​​concepts.effectivealtruism.org/​​concepts/​​bayes-rule/​​

I’m unsure precisely what the content of the entry and the scope of the tag should be, and how this will add value (if at all) relative to just having the existing entries on Epistemology, Decision theory, and some other things.

But I currently suspect this entry is worth having and Pablo seemed to agree, so I’ve made it for now, and we can see how we go. Maybe we’ll delete or change it later.

This could also be called Bayesianism or Bayesian reasoning or probably other things.

Or, if we want to narrow/​tweak the scope a bit, we could call it Bayes’ rule or Bayes’ theorem or similar.