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Epistemology

TagLast edit: 2 Jun 2022 19:35 UTC by Leo

Epistemology is the study of how people should form credences about the nature of the world.

Beliefs and credences are purely evaluative attitudes: they are simply about the way that we think the world is. A person might believe that it will rain, for example, even though they hope that it will not.

Beliefs are all-or-nothing attitudes: we either believe that it will rain or we don’t believe that it will rain. Credences, on the other hand, reflect how likely we think it is that something is true, expressed as a real number between 0 and 1. For example, we might think that there is a 80% chance that it will rain, and therefore have a credence of 0.8 that it will rain.

It is widely held that beliefs are rational if they are supported by our evidence. And credences are rational if they follow the probability axioms (e.g. a credence should never be greater than 1 in any event) and are revised in accordance with Bayes’ rule.

Improving the accuracy of beliefs

One way to improve a person’s capacity to do good is to increase the accuracy of their beliefs. Since people’s actions are determined by their desires and their beliefs, a person aiming to do good will generally do more good the more accurate their beliefs are.

Examples of belief-improving work include reading books, crafting arguments in moral philosophy, writing articles about important problems, and making scientific discoveries.

Two distinctions are relevant in this context. First, a person can build capacity by improving either their factual or their normative beliefs. Second, a person can build capacity by improving either particular beliefs or general processes of belief-formation.

Further reading

Steup, Matthias & Ram Neta (2005) Epistemology, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, December 14 (updated 11 April 2020).

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Bayesian epistemology | decision theory | epistemic deference | rationality

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2 comments1 min readEA link

Dis­cus­sions of Longter­mism should fo­cus on the prob­lem of Unawareness

Jim Buhler20 Oct 2025 13:17 UTC
34 points
1 comment34 min readEA link

Ex­pert trap: What is it? (Part 1 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Pawel Sysiak6 Jun 2023 15:05 UTC
3 points
0 comments8 min readEA link

Paper sum­mary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism (Chris­tian Tarsney)

Global Priorities Institute11 Oct 2022 11:29 UTC
39 points
5 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Cap­i­tal­ism, power and episte­mol­ogy: a cri­tique of EA

Matthew_Doran22 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
17 points
19 comments23 min readEA link

Com­ments on Karma systems

Arturo Macias1 Apr 2025 13:27 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Differ­en­tial knowl­edge interconnection

Roman Leventov12 Oct 2024 12:52 UTC
3 points
1 comment7 min readEA link

Epistemic health is a com­mu­nity issue

ConcernedEAs2 Feb 2023 15:59 UTC
12 points
11 comments9 min readEA link

The Wages of North-At­lantic Bias

Sach Wry19 Aug 2022 12:34 UTC
8 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Disagree Smarter, a schema:

kungfuhobbit6 Mar 2025 1:53 UTC
21 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

De­cou­pling vs Con­tex­tu­al­iz­ing Norms

Chris Leong3 Sep 2025 19:09 UTC
10 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Rea­son­ing decay

ontologics20 Jul 2025 8:59 UTC
10 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Sen­tien­tism: Im­prov­ing the hu­man episte­mol­ogy and ethics baseline

JamieWoodhouse27 Mar 2019 15:34 UTC
8 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
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