RSS

The Precipice

TagLast edit: 31 Mar 2022 11:56 UTC by Leo

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a book by Toby Ord. It was published on 5 March 2020.

The book is an extended argument for the conclusion that reducing existential risk is the fundamental challenge of our time. The book’s title refers to a period of heightened risk which humanity must navigate safely to realize its long-term potential. Ord dates the beginning of this period to the Trinity test, when the first atomic bomb was detonated.

Connection to longtermism

The Precipice characterizes longtermism as an ethic “especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future”, and on which “our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story.”[1] This characterization may suggest that the book’s central thesis restates the longtermist thesis. However, while the two are related, they are different. First, according to Ord the case for reducing existential risk does not presuppose longtermism, and can be made even if that view is rejected. As he writes, “[o]ne doesn’t have to approach existential risk from [a longtermist] direction” since “there is already a strong moral case just from the immediate effects.”[1] Second, while reducing existential risk is an obvious path to influencing the long-term future, there may be other ways of exerting such a lasting influence.

Further reading

Aird, Michael (2020) List of things I’ve written or may write that are relevant to The Precipice, Effective Altruism Forum, April 6.

Alexander, Scott (2020) Book Review: The Precipice, Slate Star Codex, April 2.

Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Wiblin, Robert, Arden Koehler & Keiran Harris (2020) Toby Ord on The Precipice and humanity’s potential futures, 80,000 Hours, March 7.

External links

The Precipice. Official website.

Related entries

existential risk | existential security | long-term future | Toby Ord | Trinity | What We Owe the Future

  1. ^

    Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing, p. 46.

Span­ish Trans­la­tion of “The Precipice” by Toby Ord (Unoffi­cial)

davidfriva6 Jun 2023 1:11 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(drive.google.com)

A Cri­tique of The Precipice: Chap­ter 6 - The Risk Land­scape [Red Team Challenge]

Sarah Weiler26 Jun 2022 10:59 UTC
57 points
2 comments21 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Model­ling with Con­tin­u­ous-Time Markov Chains

Radical Empath Ismam23 Jan 2023 20:32 UTC
87 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
67 points
33 comments9 min readEA link

New in­fo­graphic based on “The Precipice”. any feed­back?

michael.andregg14 Jan 2021 7:29 UTC
50 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Sum­mary of “The Precipice” (3 of 4): Play­ing Rus­sian roulette with the future

rileyharris21 Aug 2023 7:55 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.millionyearview.com)

The Precipice: In­tro­duc­tion and Chap­ter One

Toby_Ord2 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Sum­mary of “The Precipice” (4 of 4): Our place in the story of humanity

rileyharris28 Aug 2023 2:13 UTC
6 points
0 comments5 min readEA link
(www.millionyearview.com)

There will now be EA Vir­tual Pro­grams ev­ery month!

Yi-Yang17 Jul 2021 4:35 UTC
34 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Nu­clear war tail risk has been ex­ag­ger­ated?

Vasco Grilo🔸25 Feb 2024 9:14 UTC
41 points
22 comments28 min readEA link

Con­cepts of ex­is­ten­tial catastrophe

Vasco Grilo🔸15 Apr 2024 17:16 UTC
11 points
1 comment8 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Ex­ag­ger­at­ing the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)

Vasco Grilo🔸31 Dec 2023 8:45 UTC
57 points
18 comments13 min readEA link
(ineffectivealtruismblog.com)

Clar­ify­ing ex­is­ten­tial risks and ex­is­ten­tial catastrophes

MichaelA24 Apr 2020 13:27 UTC
39 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
130 points
37 comments5 min readEA link

What is ex­is­ten­tial se­cu­rity?

MichaelA1 Sep 2020 9:40 UTC
34 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial risks are not just about humanity

MichaelA28 Apr 2020 0:09 UTC
35 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

“The Precipice” by Toby Ord flash­cards now live :)

alexanderklarge23 Aug 2021 19:18 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Link] GCRI’s Seth Baum re­views The Precipice

Aryeh Englander6 Jun 2022 19:33 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing a Stu­dent Es­say Con­test on The Precipice

Akash30 Jan 2022 2:18 UTC
55 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

The Precipice: a risky re­view by a non-EA

Fernando Moreno 🔸8 Aug 2020 14:40 UTC
14 points
1 comment18 min readEA link

Sum­mary of “The Precipice” (1 of 4): As­teroids, vol­ca­noes and ex­plod­ing stars

rileyharris7 Aug 2023 3:57 UTC
9 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.millionyearview.com)

‘The Precipice’ Book Review

Matt Goodman27 Jul 2020 22:10 UTC
14 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Tay­lor Swift’s “long story short” Is Ac­tu­ally About Effec­tive Altru­ism and Longter­mism (PARODY)

shepardspie23 Jul 2021 13:25 UTC
34 points
12 comments7 min readEA link

Toby Ord: Fireside chat (2018)

EA Global1 Mar 2019 15:48 UTC
20 points
0 comments28 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Toby Ord: Fireside Chat and Q&A

EA Global21 Jul 2020 16:23 UTC
14 points
0 comments26 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Beyond Sim­ple Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Sur­vival in a Com­plex In­ter­con­nected World

GideonF21 Nov 2022 14:35 UTC
84 points
67 comments21 min readEA link

Toby Ord: Q&A (2020)

EA Global13 Jun 2020 8:17 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

AMA: Toby Ord, au­thor of “The Precipice” and co-founder of the EA movement

Toby_Ord17 Mar 2020 2:39 UTC
68 points
82 comments1 min readEA link

Book Re­view: The Precipice

Aaron Gertler 🔸9 Apr 2020 21:21 UTC
39 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(slatestarcodex.com)

The Precipice is out to­day in US & Canada! Au­dio­book now available

matthew.vandermerwe28 Mar 2020 4:00 UTC
39 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

The Precipice—Sum­mary/​Review

Nikola11 Oct 2022 0:06 UTC
10 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Policy and re­search ideas to re­duce ex­is­ten­tial risk

80000_Hours27 Apr 2020 8:46 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Toby Ord’s ‘The Precipice’ is pub­lished!

matthew.vandermerwe4 Mar 2020 21:09 UTC
146 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

Crit­i­cal Re­view of ‘The Precipice’: A Re­assess­ment of the Risks of AI and Pandemics

Fods1211 May 2020 11:11 UTC
111 points
32 comments26 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

elifland1 Sep 2022 18:07 UTC
353 points
51 comments26 min readEA link

Trans­lat­ing The Precipice into Czech: My ex­pe­rience and recommendations

Anna Stadlerova24 Aug 2022 4:51 UTC
96 points
7 comments20 min readEA link

Toby Ord at EA Global: Reconnect

EA Global20 Mar 2021 7:00 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

What Are The Biggest Threats To Hu­man­ity? (A Hap­pier World video)

Jeroen Willems🔸31 Jan 2023 19:50 UTC
17 points
1 comment15 min readEA link

Chap­ter 4 of The Precipice in poem form

Lauriander29 Nov 2023 9:12 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readEA link