AI risk skepticism

TagLast edit: 12 Feb 2024 8:57 UTC by Vasco Grilo🔸

AI risk skepticism is skepticism about arguments that advanced artificial intelligence poses a catastrophic or existential risk.

Counterarguments to the basic AI risk case

Katja_Grace14 Oct 2022 20:30 UTC

284 points

23 comments34 min readEA link

My Objections to “We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky”

Quintin Pope21 Mar 2023 1:23 UTC

166 points

21 comments39 min readEA link

My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.

NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC

435 points

116 comments14 min readEA link

(nunosempere.com)

Exponential AI takeoff is a myth

Christoph Hartmann 🔸31 May 2023 11:47 UTC

47 points

11 comments9 min readEA link

[linkpost] “What Are Reasonable AI Fears?” by Robin Hanson, 2023-04-23

Arjun Panickssery14 Apr 2023 23:26 UTC

41 points

3 comments4 min readEA link

(quillette.com)

Evolution provides no evidence for the sharp left turn

Quintin Pope11 Apr 2023 18:48 UTC

43 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

Reasons I’ve been hesitant about high levels of near-ish AI risk

elifland22 Jul 2022 1:32 UTC

207 points

16 comments7 min readEA link

(www.foxy-scout.com)

[Question] What is the current most representative EA AI x-risk argument?

Matthew_Barnett15 Dec 2023 22:04 UTC

117 points

50 comments3 min readEA link

titotal on AI risk scepticism

Vasco Grilo🔸30 May 2024 17:03 UTC

75 points

3 comments6 min readEA link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI doom

Nora Belrose27 Feb 2024 23:03 UTC

84 points

15 comments1 min readEA link

Ben Garfinkel: How sure are we about this AI stuff?

bgarfinkel9 Feb 2019 19:17 UTC

128 points

20 comments18 min readEA link

The bullseye framework: My case against AI doom

titotal30 May 2023 11:52 UTC

70 points

15 comments17 min readEA link

Why AI is Harder Than We Think—Melanie Mitchell

Eevee🔹28 Apr 2021 8:19 UTC

45 points

7 comments2 min readEA link

(arxiv.org)

“Diamondoid bacteria” nanobots: deadly threat or dead-end? A nanotech investigation

titotal29 Sep 2023 14:01 UTC

102 points

33 comments20 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

Why EAs are skeptical about AI Safety

Lukas Trötzmüller🔸18 Jul 2022 19:01 UTC

290 points

31 comments29 min readEA link

Two contrasting models of “intelligence” and future growth

Magnus Vinding24 Nov 2022 11:54 UTC

74 points

32 comments22 min readEA link

How I failed to form views on AI safety

Ada-Maaria Hyvärinen17 Apr 2022 11:05 UTC

213 points

72 comments40 min readEA link

Chaining the evil genie: why “outer” AI safety is probably easy

titotal30 Aug 2022 13:55 UTC

40 points

12 comments10 min readEA link

Bandgaps, Brains, and Bioweapons: The limitations of computational science and what it means for AGI

titotal26 May 2023 15:57 UTC

59 points

0 comments18 min readEA link

[Question] Are AI risks tractable?

defun 🔸21 May 2024 13:45 UTC

23 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Deceptive Alignment is <1% Likely by Default

DavidW21 Feb 2023 15:07 UTC

54 points

26 comments14 min readEA link

Deconstructing Bostrom’s Classic Argument for AI Doom

Nora Belrose11 Mar 2024 6:03 UTC

25 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.youtube.com)

New article from Oren Etzioni

Aryeh Englander25 Feb 2020 15:38 UTC

23 points

3 comments2 min readEA link

Three Biases That Made Me Believe in AI Risk

beth13 Feb 2019 23:22 UTC

41 points

20 comments3 min readEA link

Interview with Tom Chivers: “AI is a plausible existential risk, but it feels as if I’m in Pascal’s mugging”

felix.h21 Feb 2021 13:41 UTC

16 points

1 comment7 min readEA link

[Question] Why should we not put effort into AI safety research?

Ben Thompson16 May 2021 5:11 UTC

15 points

5 comments1 min readEA link

A tale of 2.5 orthogonality theses

Arepo1 May 2022 13:53 UTC

140 points

31 comments11 min readEA link

13 Very Different Stances on AGI

Ozzie Gooen27 Dec 2021 23:30 UTC

84 points

23 comments3 min readEA link

The AI Messiah

ryancbriggs5 May 2022 16:58 UTC

71 points

44 comments2 min readEA link

Yann LeCun on AGI and AI Safety

Chris Leong8 Aug 2023 23:43 UTC

23 points

4 comments1 min readEA link

(drive.google.com)

Red-teaming existential risk from AI

Zed Tarar30 Nov 2023 14:35 UTC

30 points

16 comments6 min readEA link

On the Dwarkesh/Chollet Podcast, and the cruxes of scaling to AGI

JWS 🔸15 Jun 2024 20:24 UTC

72 points

49 comments17 min readEA link

My cover story in Jacobin on AI capitalism and the x-risk debates

Garrison12 Feb 2024 23:34 UTC

154 points

10 comments6 min readEA link

(jacobin.com)

AI is centralizing by default; let’s not make it worse

Quintin Pope21 Sep 2023 13:35 UTC

53 points

16 comments15 min readEA link

Future Matters #7: AI timelines, AI skepticism, and lock-in

Pablo3 Feb 2023 11:47 UTC

54 points

0 comments17 min readEA link

Can a terrorist attack cause human extinction? Not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸2 Dec 2023 8:20 UTC

43 points

9 comments15 min readEA link

In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x-risk

Owen Cotton-Barratt25 Jun 2024 23:52 UTC

89 points

15 comments2 min readEA link

Did Bengio and Tegmark lose a debate about AI x-risk against LeCun and Mitchell?

Karl von Wendt25 Jun 2023 16:59 UTC

80 points

24 comments1 min readEA link

AI scaling myths

Nic Kruus🔸27 Jun 2024 20:29 UTC

30 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(open.substack.com)

Reasons for my negative feelings towards the AI risk discussion

fergusq1 Sep 2022 7:33 UTC

43 points

9 comments4 min readEA link

Imitation Learning is Probably Existentially Safe

Vasco Grilo🔸30 Apr 2024 17:06 UTC

19 points

7 comments3 min readEA link

(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Motivation gaps: Why so much EA criticism is hostile and lazy

titotal22 Apr 2024 11:49 UTC

211 points

44 comments19 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

“X distracts from Y” as a thinly-disguised fight over group status / politics

Steven Byrnes25 Sep 2023 15:29 UTC

89 points

9 comments8 min readEA link

AGI Battle Royale: Why “slow takeover” scenarios devolve into a chaotic multi-AGI fight to the death

titotal22 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC

49 points

11 comments15 min readEA link

Destroy the “neoliberal hallucination” & fight for animal rights through open rescue.

Chloe Leffakis15 Aug 2023 4:47 UTC

−17 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

(www.reddit.com)

How “AGI” could end up being many different specialized AI’s stitched together

titotal8 May 2023 12:32 UTC

31 points

2 comments9 min readEA link

Why AGI systems will not be fanatical maximisers (unless trained by fanatical humans)

titotal17 May 2023 11:58 UTC

43 points

3 comments15 min readEA link

The Leeroy Jenkins principle: How faulty AI could guarantee “warning shots”

titotal14 Jan 2024 15:03 UTC

54 points

2 comments21 min readEA link

(titotal.substack.com)

I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027

Vasco Grilo🔸4 Jun 2024 16:37 UTC

195 points

57 comments2 min readEA link

Blake Richards on Why he is Skeptical of Existential Risk from AI

Michaël Trazzi14 Jun 2022 19:11 UTC

63 points

14 comments4 min readEA link

(theinsideview.ai)

Cognitive Biases Contributing to AI X-risk — a deleted excerpt from my 2018 ARCHES draft

Andrew Critch3 Dec 2024 9:29 UTC

14 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Mere exposure effect: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks

Remmelt27 Dec 2022 14:05 UTC

4 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

Loss of control of AI is not a likely source of AI x-risk

squek9 Nov 2022 5:48 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

Critique of Superintelligence Part 2

Fods1213 Dec 2018 5:12 UTC

10 points

12 comments7 min readEA link

A Critique of AI Takeover Scenarios

Fods1231 Aug 2022 13:49 UTC

53 points

4 comments12 min readEA link

Podcast: Magnus Vinding on reducing suffering, why AI progress is likely to be gradual and distributed and how to reason about politics

Gus Docker21 Nov 2021 15:29 UTC

26 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

No, CS majors didn’t delude themselves that the best way to save the world is to do CS research

Robert_Wiblin15 Dec 2015 17:13 UTC

20 points

7 comments3 min readEA link

My personal cruxes for working on AI safety

Buck13 Feb 2020 7:11 UTC

136 points

35 comments44 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Future Fund Worldview Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC

−8 points

24 comments13 min readEA link

[Question] What Do AI Safety Pitches Not Get About Your Field?

a_e_r20 Sep 2022 18:13 UTC

70 points

18 comments1 min readEA link

Why some people believe in AGI, but I don’t.

cveres26 Oct 2022 3:09 UTC

13 points

2 comments4 min readEA link

The missing link to AGI

Yuri Barzov28 Sep 2022 16:37 UTC

1 point

7 comments1 min readEA link

The Credibility of Apocalyptic Claims: A Critique of Techno-Futurism within Existential Risk

Ember16 Aug 2022 19:48 UTC

25 points

35 comments17 min readEA link

Critique of Superintelligence Part 1

Fods1213 Dec 2018 5:10 UTC

22 points

13 comments8 min readEA link

Critique of Superintelligence Part 3

Fods1213 Dec 2018 5:13 UTC

3 points

5 comments7 min readEA link

Critique of Superintelligence Part 5

Fods1213 Dec 2018 5:19 UTC

12 points

2 comments6 min readEA link

Maybe AI risk shouldn’t affect your life plan all that much

Justis22 Jul 2022 15:30 UTC

22 points

4 comments6 min readEA link

Critique of Superintelligence Part 4

Fods1213 Dec 2018 5:14 UTC

4 points

2 comments4 min readEA link

Stress Externalities More in AI Safety Pitches

NickGabs26 Sep 2022 20:31 UTC

31 points

9 comments2 min readEA link

Optimism, AI risk, and EA blind spots

Justis28 Sep 2022 17:21 UTC

87 points

21 comments8 min readEA link

Is this community over-emphasizing AI alignment?

Lixiang8 Jan 2023 6:23 UTC

1 point

5 comments1 min readEA link

Heretical Thoughts on AI | Eli Dourado

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆19 Jan 2023 16:11 UTC

142 points

15 comments1 min readEA link

New tool for exploring EA Forum and LessWrong—Tree of Tags

Filip Sondej27 Oct 2022 17:43 UTC

43 points

8 comments1 min readEA link

The Dissolution of AI Safety

Roko12 Dec 2024 10:46 UTC

−7 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.transhumanaxiology.com)

AI Risk and Survivorship Bias—How Andreessen and LeCun got it wrong

stepanlos14 Jul 2023 17:10 UTC

5 points

1 comment6 min readEA link

The Prospect of an AI Winter

Erich_Grunewald 🔸27 Mar 2023 20:55 UTC

56 points

13 comments1 min readEA link

Notes on “the hot mess theory of AI misalignment”

JakubK21 Apr 2023 10:07 UTC

44 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

Language Agents Reduce the Risk of Existential Catastrophe

cdkg29 May 2023 9:59 UTC

29 points

6 comments26 min readEA link

What can superintelligent ANI tell us about superintelligent AGI?

Ted Sanders12 Jun 2023 6:32 UTC

81 points

20 comments5 min readEA link

Summary: Against the Singularity Hypothesis (David Thorstad)

Nic Kruus🔸27 Mar 2024 13:48 UTC

63 points

10 comments5 min readEA link

My Proven AI Safety Explanation (as a computing student)

Mica White6 Feb 2024 3:58 UTC

8 points

4 comments6 min readEA link

Against AI As An Existential Risk

Daniel Birnbaum30 Jul 2024 19:24 UTC

6 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

(irrationalitycommunity.substack.com)

No “Zero-Shot” Without Exponential Data: Pretraining Concept Frequency Determines Multimodal Model Performance

Nic Kruus🔸14 May 2024 23:57 UTC

36 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

(arxiv.org)

‘Dissolving’ AI Risk – Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting

Froolow18 Oct 2022 22:54 UTC

111 points

63 comments39 min readEA link

Summary: Against the singularity hypothesis

Global Priorities Institute22 May 2024 11:05 UTC

46 points

14 comments4 min readEA link

(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Shutting down all competing AI projects might not buy a lot of time due to Internal Time Pressure

ThomasCederborg3 Oct 2024 0:05 UTC

6 points

1 comment12 min readEA link

Should AI X-Risk Worriers Short the Market?

postlibertarian4 Nov 2024 16:16 UTC

14 points

1 comment6 min readEA link

Cutting AI Safety down to size

Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸9 Nov 2024 23:40 UTC

86 points

5 comments5 min readEA link

Proposing the Conditional AI Safety Treaty (linkpost TIME)

Otto15 Nov 2024 13:56 UTC

12 points

6 comments3 min readEA link

(time.com)

[Question] Benefits/Risks of Scott Aaronson’s Orthodox/Reform Framing for AI Alignment

Jeremy21 Nov 2022 17:47 UTC

15 points

5 comments1 min readEA link

(scottaaronson.blog)

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AI risk skepticism

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