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De­ci­sion theory

TagLast edit: 27 Feb 2023 21:13 UTC by Sylvester Kollin

Decision theory is the study of rational decision-making under conditions of empirical uncertainty.

Decision theory is normative: it provides us with a means of assessing decisions, and guidance on how to make the best decisions. The goal is not necessarily to show how real-life agents actually make decisions, which is explored in behavioral economics and the psychology of decision making.

Suppose that a person has more than one action available to them, that they are uncertain about the state of the world, and that they know that different outcomes will result from their action depending on what the true state of the world is. Even once they have assigned values to each of these outcomes, they will need a function to process those value-assigned outcomes to the actions available to them: one that can rank the actions by how good they are. For example, if they think that they should maximize expected value, then the function will rank all of the actions available to them by the amount of value that each of them is expected to produce.

Further reading

Steele, Katie and H. Orri Stefánsson (2020), Decision Theory, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

Peterson, Martin (2017) An Introduction to Decision Theory, 2nd ed., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Oesterheld, Caspar (2017) A comprehensive list of decision theories, The Universe from an Intentional Stance, June 22.

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2 points
5 comments24 min readEA link

Nav­i­gat­ing dona­tion dilem­mas: cus­tomiz­able Mo­ral Par­li­a­ment tools for bet­ter de­ci­sion-making

Hayley Clatterbuck15 Oct 2025 20:24 UTC
42 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Bet­ter than log­a­r­ith­mic re­turns to rea­son­ing?

Oliver Sourbut30 Jul 2025 0:50 UTC
6 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Craft­ing Our Mis­sion State­ment: Weighted Fac­tor Models, Shal­low Re­search, and Les­sons Learned for Clar­ity and Impact

Harry Luk13 Oct 2023 16:43 UTC
9 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

LW4EA: Value of In­for­ma­tion: Four Examples

Jeremy14 Jun 2022 2:26 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Bayesian Mindset

Holden Karnofsky21 Dec 2021 19:54 UTC
74 points
19 comments25 min readEA link

Other Civ­i­liza­tions Would Re­cover 84+% of Our Cos­mic Re­sources—A Challenge to Ex­tinc­tion Risk Prioritization

Maxime Riché 🔸17 Mar 2025 13:11 UTC
19 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

The Ethics of Copy­ing Con­scious States and the Many-Wor­lds In­ter­pre­ta­tion of Quan­tum Mechanics

tobycrisford 🔸3 Aug 2025 9:09 UTC
9 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Acausal normalcy

Andrew Critch3 Mar 2023 23:35 UTC
22 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

The Benev­olent Ruler’s Hand­book (Part 2): Mo­ral­ity Rules

FCCC12 Aug 2023 14:25 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

My notes on: Se­quence think­ing vs. cluster thinking

Vasco Grilo🔸25 May 2022 15:03 UTC
24 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Mul­ti­verse-wide co­op­er­a­tion in a nutshell

Lukas_Gloor2 Nov 2017 10:17 UTC
84 points
10 comments16 min readEA link

Perfor­mance of Large Lan­guage Models (LLMs) in Com­plex Anal­y­sis: A Bench­mark of Math­e­mat­i­cal Com­pe­tence and its Role in De­ci­sion Mak­ing.

Jaime Esteban Montenegro Barón6 May 2025 21:08 UTC
1 point
0 comments23 min readEA link

Ar­ti­cle on Value Plu­ral­ism, Mak­ing Trade Offs and Policymaking

Danny Wardle17 Mar 2025 13:26 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(sagacitymagazine.com.au)

Karma Tests in Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tual Si­mu­la­tions mo­ti­vates strong agents to pro­tect weak agents

Knight Lee18 Apr 2025 12:03 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readEA link

On ne­go­ti­ated set­tle­ments vs con­flict with mis­al­igned AGI

Charles Dillon 🔸24 Nov 2025 12:03 UTC
10 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Th­e­sis Sum­mary and Open Ques­tions: Nor­ma­tive Uncer­tainty and In­for­ma­tion Value

rileyharris27 Apr 2022 8:46 UTC
32 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] De­ci­sion mak­ing un­der model am­bi­guity, moral un­cer­tainty, and other agents with free will?

Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)2 Nov 2022 12:52 UTC
16 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

[Question] What should my re­search lab fo­cus on in the first week of 2023?

Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)4 Nov 2022 10:16 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Prag­matic Bayesian di­ver­sifi­ca­tion of giv­ing

simon12 Apr 2025 18:34 UTC
7 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Gaia Net­work: An Illus­trated Primer

Roman Leventov26 Jan 2024 11:55 UTC
4 points
4 comments15 min readEA link

4. Why ex­ist­ing ap­proaches to cause pri­ori­ti­za­tion are not ro­bust to unawareness

Anthony DiGiovanni2 Jun 2025 8:55 UTC
36 points
31 comments17 min readEA link

The Dilemma’s Dilemma

Non-zero-sum James19 Feb 2025 23:56 UTC
2 points
1 comment7 min readEA link
(nonzerosum.games)

Punch­ing Utili­tar­i­ans in the Face

AppliedDivinityStudies13 Jul 2022 18:43 UTC
62 points
29 comments5 min readEA link

1. The challenge of un­aware­ness for im­par­tial al­tru­ist ac­tion guidance: Introduction

Anthony DiGiovanni2 Jun 2025 8:54 UTC
84 points
17 comments17 min readEA link

Im­pli­ca­tions of ev­i­den­tial co­op­er­a­tion in large worlds

Lukas Finnveden23 Aug 2023 0:43 UTC
79 points
1 comment17 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Stum­bling Our Way into Global Catas­tro­phe One Tweet-at-a-Time

Faqih21 Oct 2025 6:38 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Should we pub­lish ar­gu­ments for the preser­va­tion of hu­man­ity?

Jeremy7 Apr 2023 13:51 UTC
8 points
4 comments1 min readEA link
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