Classic posts (from the Forum Digest)Lizka11 Jul 2022 16:42 UTCThis is a sequence of posts that were shared as “Classics” in the EA Forum DigestUse resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertaintyGregory Lewis🔸18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC103 points34 comments7 min readEA linkThe Possibility of an Ongoing Moral Catastrophe (Summary)Linch2 Aug 2019 21:55 UTC144 points17 comments4 min readEA link(docs.google.com)‘Ugh Fields’, or why you can’t even bear to think about that taskRobert_Wiblin14 Sep 2020 16:39 UTC60 points1 comment5 min readEA linkThe world is much better. The world is awful. The world can be much better.Max Roser22 Aug 2022 14:33 UTC110 points6 comments5 min readEA linkDifferential progress / intellectual progress / technological developmentMichaelA🔸24 Apr 2020 14:08 UTC47 points16 comments7 min readEA linkKeeping Absolutes in MindMichelle_Hutchinson21 Oct 2018 22:40 UTC145 points10 comments2 min readEA linkGrowth and the case against randomista developmentHauke Hillebrandt16 Jan 2020 10:11 UTC432 points197 comments31 min readEA linkEffective Altruism is a Question (not an ideology)Helen16 Oct 2014 4:16 UTC282 points48 comments4 min readEA link500 Million, But Not A Single One Morejai25 May 2020 16:31 UTC603 points29 comments3 min readEA link(laneless.substack.com)Beware surprising and suspicious convergenceGregory Lewis🔸24 Jan 2016 19:11 UTC219 points21 comments15 min readEA linkOn CaringSo8res7 Oct 2014 5:12 UTC311 points16 comments10 min readEA linkHow bad would nuclear winter caused by a US-Russia nuclear exchange be?Luisa_Rodriguez20 Jun 2019 1:48 UTC145 points18 comments43 min readEA linkWhat is the likelihood that civilizational collapse would directly lead to human extinction (within decades)?Luisa_Rodriguez24 Dec 2020 22:10 UTC296 points37 comments50 min readEA linkReducing long-term risks from malevolent actorsDavid_Althaus29 Apr 2020 8:55 UTC341 points93 comments37 min readEA linkAn unofficial Replacing Guilt tier listAkash2 Jul 2022 22:59 UTC41 points1 comment4 min readEA linkA summary of every Replacing Guilt postAkash30 Jun 2022 0:24 UTC127 points5 comments10 min readEA linkNot yet godsSo8res9 Aug 2015 5:00 UTC25 points0 comments2 min readEA link(mindingourway.com)You have more than one goal, and that’s fineJulia_Wise🔸20 Feb 2019 1:08 UTC296 points28 comments2 min readEA linkIntegrity for consequentialistsPaul_Christiano14 Nov 2016 20:56 UTC177 points18 comments8 min readEA linkMentorship, Management, and Mysterious Old WizardsRaemon24 Feb 2021 21:58 UTC88 points4 comments3 min readEA linkScope-sensitive ethics: capturing the core intuition motivating utilitarianismrichard_ngo15 Jan 2021 16:22 UTC141 points19 comments5 min readEA linkThe motivated reasoning critique of effective altruismLinch14 Sep 2021 20:43 UTC285 points59 comments23 min readEA linkAim high, even if you fall shortJulia_Wise🔸11 Oct 2014 17:26 UTC151 points11 comments2 min readEA link[Question] Why “cause area” as the unit of analysis?riceissa25 Jan 2021 2:53 UTC85 points21 comments4 min readEA linkNo, it’s not the incentives — it’s youAaron Gertler 🔸25 Jan 2021 6:50 UTC26 points1 comment4 min readEA link(www.talyarkoni.org)List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleadingsaulius20 Aug 2019 18:05 UTC235 points37 comments13 min readEA linkEpistemic LegibilityElizabeth21 Mar 2022 19:18 UTC73 points1 comment20 min readEA linkPotential downsides of using explicit probabilitiesMichaelA🔸20 Jan 2020 2:14 UTC57 points22 comments18 min readEA linkLearning By WritingHolden Karnofsky22 Feb 2022 15:39 UTC146 points12 comments10 min readEA linkReasoning TransparencyLizka28 Sep 2022 12:22 UTC117 points8 comments17 min readEA link(www.openphilanthropy.org)Care and demandingnessJoe_Carlsmith8 Mar 2021 6:59 UTC54 points2 comments11 min readEA linkComparing charities: How big is the difference? Giving What We Can4 Apr 2022 23:00 UTC37 points17 comments5 min readEA link(www.givingwhatwecan.org)Moral circles: Degrees, dimensions, visualsMichaelA🔸24 Jul 2020 4:04 UTC87 points10 comments13 min readEA linkShapley values: Better than counterfactualsNunoSempere10 Oct 2019 10:26 UTC152 points54 comments15 min readEA linkAmanda Askell: The moral value of informationEA Global2 Jun 2017 8:48 UTC19 points0 comments13 min readEA link(www.youtube.com)What gives me hopeMichelle_Hutchinson19 May 2021 10:00 UTC209 points4 comments3 min readEA linkThe extraordinary value of ordinary norms EmilyTench8 Nov 2017 17:34 UTC42 points7 comments12 min readEA linkMinimal-trust investigationsHolden Karnofsky23 Nov 2021 18:02 UTC161 points9 comments12 min readEA linkExistential risk as common causeGavin5 Dec 2018 14:01 UTC49 points22 comments5 min readEA linkWhat is a ‘broad intervention’ and what is a ‘narrow intervention’? Are we confusing ourselves?Robert_Wiblin19 Dec 2015 16:12 UTC20 points3 comments2 min readEA linkWhy Charities Usually Don’t Differ Astronomically in Expected Cost-EffectivenessBrian_Tomasik16 Sep 2017 10:40 UTC106 points6 comments28 min readEA link(reducing-suffering.org)On everyday altruism and the local circleBernadette_Young24 May 2015 14:09 UTC36 points9 comments1 min readEA linkSix Ways To Get Along With People Who Are Totally Wrong*Robert_Wiblin24 Feb 2015 12:41 UTC170 points29 comments5 min readEA linkKey Lessons From Social Movement HistoryJamie_Harris30 Jun 2021 17:05 UTC122 points24 comments11 min readEA link(www.sentienceinstitute.org)Aiming for the minimum of self-care is dangerousTessa A 🔸9 Dec 2021 21:27 UTC230 points32 comments6 min readEA linkCrucial questions for longtermistsMichaelA🔸29 Jul 2020 9:39 UTC104 points17 comments19 min readEA linkHard-to-reverse decisions destroy option value Stefan_Schubert17 Mar 2017 17:54 UTC33 points14 comments11 min readEA linkReality is often underpoweredGregory Lewis🔸10 Oct 2019 13:14 UTC234 points17 comments5 min readEA linkThe Unweaving of a Beautiful Thingatb26 Dec 2021 10:24 UTC361 points46 comments23 min readEA linkThree intuitions about EA: responsibility, scale, self-improvementrichard_ngo15 Apr 2022 7:55 UTC196 points7 comments5 min readEA linkIndependent impressionsMichaelA🔸26 Sep 2021 18:43 UTC155 points8 comments1 min readEA linkEfficient charity: do unto others...Scott Alexander3 Sep 2013 4:40 UTC82 points13 comments6 min readEA linkDistillation and research debtLizka15 Mar 2022 11:45 UTC69 points7 comments3 min readEA link(distill.pub)Failing with abandonSo8res13 Apr 2015 6:31 UTC42 points2 comments1 min readEA link(mindingourway.com)If you don’t have good evidence one thing is better than another, don’t pretend you doRobert_Wiblin21 Dec 2015 19:19 UTC49 points7 comments1 min readEA linkOn “fringe” ideasKelsey Piper19 Aug 2019 7:00 UTC257 points6 comments5 min readEA link(theunitofcaring.tumblr.com)The Value of a LifeSo8res17 Feb 2015 17:33 UTC38 points11 comments10 min readEA linkYou Don’t Need To Justify EverythingTW12312 Jun 2022 18:36 UTC139 points11 comments3 min readEA linkBiosecurity needs engineers and materials scientistsWill Bradshaw16 Dec 2021 11:37 UTC161 points11 comments3 min readEA linkSupportive scepticism in practiceMichelle_Hutchinson15 Jan 2015 16:35 UTC41 points23 comments8 min readEA linkManaging ‘Imposters’Michelle_Hutchinson29 Jan 2022 15:46 UTC165 points9 comments8 min readEA linkContra Ari Ne’eman On Effective Altruismozymandias24 Jun 2022 16:37 UTC98 points6 comments7 min readEA link(thingofthings.substack.com)When in doubt, apply*Vaidehi Agarwalla 🔸23 Jan 2022 19:07 UTC66 points7 comments8 min readEA linkVirtues for Real-World UtilitariansStefan_Schubert5 Aug 2021 22:56 UTC152 points7 comments1 min readEA link(psyarxiv.com)[Question] Why “cause area” as the unit of analysis?riceissa25 Jan 2021 2:53 UTC85 points21 comments4 min readEA linkSummary: When should an effective altruist donate? (William MacAskill)Global Priorities Institute4 Jul 2023 13:37 UTC45 points7 comments3 min readEA link(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)We are in triage every second of every dayHolly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸26 Aug 2016 20:20 UTC209 points25 comments4 min readEA linkWholehearted choices and “morality as taxes”Joe_Carlsmith21 Dec 2020 19:35 UTC79 points8 comments4 min readEA linkRadical EmpathyHolden Karnofsky16 Feb 2017 12:41 UTC73 points15 comments6 min readEA linkWhy the triviality objection to EA is beside the pointStefan_Schubert20 Jul 2015 19:29 UTC53 points5 comments3 min readEA linkInvisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)Lizka6 Oct 2022 15:08 UTC137 points15 comments8 min readEA linkCertificates of impactPaul_Christiano11 Nov 2014 5:22 UTC54 points41 comments8 min readEA linkAre we living at the most influential time in history?William_MacAskill3 Sep 2019 4:55 UTC204 points147 comments24 min readEA linkAll Possible Views About Humanity’s Future Are WildHolden Karnofsky13 Jul 2021 16:57 UTC217 points47 comments8 min readEA link(www.cold-takes.com)Comparative advantage does not mean doing the thing you’re best atBen_West🔸29 Apr 2022 15:49 UTC134 points9 comments2 min readEA linkWhat happens on the average day?rosehadshar17 Aug 2022 10:09 UTC358 points33 comments6 min readEA linkA Long-run perspective on strategic cause selection and philanthropyCarlShulman5 Nov 2013 23:08 UTC29 points29 comments7 min readEA link9/26 is Petrov DayLizka25 Sep 2022 23:14 UTC77 points10 comments2 min readEA link(www.lesswrong.com)Integrity for consequentialistsPaul_Christiano14 Nov 2016 20:56 UTC177 points18 comments8 min readEA linkOn the limits of idealized valuesJoe_Carlsmith22 Jun 2021 2:00 UTC80 points9 comments35 min readEA linkDon’t think, just apply! (usually)MichaelA🔸12 Apr 2022 8:06 UTC141 points22 comments7 min readEA linkThe Application is not the ApplicantJJ Hepburn17 Jan 2022 8:10 UTC96 points3 comments2 min readEA linkWhat the EA community can learn from the rise of the neoliberalsKerry_Vaughan6 Dec 2016 18:21 UTC55 points10 comments20 min readEA linkCheerfullyJulia_Wise🔸21 Jun 2013 4:00 UTC128 points27 comments2 min readEA linkHow we can make it easier to change your mind about cause areasClaireZabel11 Aug 2015 6:21 UTC78 points16 comments3 min readEA linkSupportive scepticism in practiceMichelle_Hutchinson15 Jan 2015 16:35 UTC41 points23 comments8 min readEA linkImportant Between-Cause Considerations: things every EA should know aboutJackM28 Jan 2021 19:56 UTC112 points28 comments12 min readEA linkHow likely is World War III?Stephen Clare15 Feb 2022 15:09 UTC122 points21 comments22 min readEA linkKilling the antsJoe_Carlsmith7 Feb 2021 23:16 UTC228 points18 comments8 min readEA linkMost problems fall within a 100x tractability range (under certain assumptions)Thomas Kwa4 May 2022 0:06 UTC116 points25 comments4 min readEA linkUseful Vices for Wicked ProblemsHolden Karnofsky12 Apr 2022 19:19 UTC115 points3 comments16 min readEA linkEA should taboo “EA should”Lizka29 Mar 2022 9:07 UTC210 points9 comments4 min readEA linkFraming Effective Altruism as Overcoming IndifferenceDM25 May 2019 12:10 UTC87 points8 comments6 min readEA linkHow moral progress happens: the decline of footbinding as a case studyrosehadshar26 Jul 2022 9:18 UTC105 points10 comments13 min readEA link$1.25/day—What does that mean?William_MacAskill17 May 2013 4:00 UTC90 points4 comments2 min readEA linkEmpirical data on value driftJoey🔸22 Apr 2018 23:31 UTC151 points69 comments5 min readEA linkButterfly IdeasElizabeth23 Mar 2022 17:52 UTC71 points2 comments3 min readEA linkTerminate deliberation based on resilience, not certaintyGregory Lewis🔸5 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC152 points16 comments12 min readEA linkRecovering from RejectionAaron Gertler 🔸3 Jul 2023 9:42 UTC172 points5 comments11 min readEA linkCounterarguments to the basic AI risk caseKatja_Grace14 Oct 2022 20:30 UTC284 points23 comments34 min readEA linkAre you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and EllsbergHaydnBelfield19 May 2022 8:42 UTC485 points44 comments18 min readEA linkWithout specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeoverAjeya18 Jul 2022 19:07 UTC217 points12 comments84 min readEA link(www.lesswrong.com)Collection of good 2012-2017 EA forum postssaulius10 Jul 2020 16:35 UTC202 points8 comments3 min readEA linkLet’s think about slowing down AIKatja_Grace23 Dec 2022 19:56 UTC334 points9 comments1 min readEA linkAn embarrassment of richesJulia_Wise🔸19 Nov 2015 18:23 UTC55 points3 comments5 min readEA linkCorporate campaigns affect 9 to 120 years of chicken life per dollar spentsaulius8 Jul 2019 8:01 UTC176 points27 comments59 min readEA linkSeven things that surprised us in our first year working in policy—Lead Exposure Elimination Project Jack14 May 2021 9:40 UTC244 points8 comments7 min readEA linkThe case of the missing cause prioritisation researchweeatquince16 Aug 2020 0:21 UTC309 points88 comments16 min readEA linkThe Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethicsjai4 Nov 2016 7:00 UTC110 points2 comments5 min readEA link(laneless.substack.com)An Argument for Why the Future May Be GoodBen_West🔸19 Jul 2017 22:03 UTC50 points30 comments4 min readEA linkEffective altruists love systemic changeRobert_Wiblin8 Jul 2015 7:00 UTC54 points2 comments6 min readEA link(80000hours.org)Hits-based GivingHolden Karnofsky4 Apr 2016 7:45 UTC93 points2 comments19 min readEA link(www.openphilanthropy.org)AGI and Lock-InLukas Finnveden29 Oct 2022 1:56 UTC146 points20 comments10 min readEA link(docs.google.com)Most* small probabilities aren’t pascalian Gregory Lewis🔸7 Aug 2022 16:17 UTC212 points20 comments6 min readEA linkHow I Formed My Own Views About AI SafetyNeel Nanda27 Feb 2022 18:52 UTC134 points12 comments14 min readEA link(www.neelnanda.io)Good news on climate changeJohn G. Halstead28 Oct 2021 14:04 UTC236 points34 comments12 min readEA linkOpen Phil Should Allocate Most Neartermist Funding to Animal WelfareAriel Simnegar 🔸19 Nov 2023 17:00 UTC519 points126 comments14 min readEA linkEffectiveness is a Conjunction of MultipliersThomas Kwa25 Mar 2022 18:44 UTC259 points34 comments4 min readEA linkAct utilitarianism: criterion of rightness vs. decision procedureAskell18 Jan 2017 23:49 UTC61 points5 comments4 min readEA linkHow effective are prizes at spurring innovation?Rethink Priorities1 Nov 2022 9:31 UTC109 points15 comments86 min readEA linkSome readings & notes on how to do high-quality, efficient researchMichaelA🔸17 Nov 2021 17:01 UTC76 points1 comment8 min readEA linkWinners of the EA Criticism and Red Teaming ContestLizka1 Oct 2022 1:50 UTC226 points41 comments19 min readEA linkDetecting Genetically Engineered Viruses With Metagenomic SequencingJeff Kaufman 🔸27 Jun 2024 14:01 UTC203 points7 comments8 min readEA link(naobservatory.org)Five Ways to Handle Flow-Through EffectsPeter Wildeford28 Jul 2016 3:39 UTC43 points3 comments5 min readEA link