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Eco­nomic growth

TagLast edit: 8 Jul 2022 14:30 UTC by Leo

Economic growth is the expansion of inflation-adjusted income over time, usually due to growth in population, investment, or innovation. Economic growth has attracted the attention of the effective altruism community both because growth appears to be a highly cost-effective way to reduce global poverty and improve human wellbeing, and because expected rates of economic growth in the coming centuries have, in the words of Future of Humanity Institute researcher Ben Garfinkel, “some bearing on almost every long-run challenge facing the world, from climate change to great power competition to risks from AI.”[1]

Further reading

Alexander, Scott (2019) 1960: the year the singularity was cancelled, Slate Star Codex, April 22.

Aschenbrenner, Leopold (2020a) Existential risk and growth, Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.

Aschenbrenner, Leopold (2020b) Securing posterity, Works in Progress, October 19.

Davidson, Tom (2021) Report on whether AI could drive explosive economic growth, Open Philanthropy, June 25.

Garfinkel, Ben (2020) Does economic history point toward a singularity?, Effective Altruism Forum, September 2.

Hanson, Robin (2016) The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Kremer, Michael (1993) Population growth and technological change: one million B.C. to 1990, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 108, pp. 681–716.

Nordhaus, William D. (2021) Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 13, pp. 299–332.

Roser, Max (2021) What is economic growth? And why is it so important?, Our World in Data, May 13.

Roodman, David (2020) On the probability distribution of long-term changes in the growth rate of the global economy: an outside view, Open Philanthropy.

von Foerster, Heinz, Patricia M. Mora & Lawrence W. Amiot (1960) Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026, Science, vol. 132, pp. 1291–1295.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2018) Economics Prof Tyler Cowen says our overwhelming priorities should be maximising economic growth and making civilisation more stable. Is he right?, 80,000 Hours, October 17.

Related entries

differential progress | economics | economics of artificial intelligence | global poverty | population decline | poverty trap | scientific progress | speeding up development

  1. ^

    Garfinkel, Ben (2020) Does economic history point toward a singularity?, Effective Altruism Forum, September 2.

Growth and the case against ran­domista development

Hauke Hillebrandt16 Jan 2020 10:11 UTC
386 points
193 comments31 min readEA link

Will faster eco­nomic growth make us hap­pier? The rele­vance of the Easter­lin Para­dox to Progress Studies

MichaelPlant24 Jun 2022 12:29 UTC
154 points
28 comments21 min readEA link
(www.happierlivesinstitute.org)

Re­port on Whether AI Could Drive Ex­plo­sive Eco­nomic Growth

Tom_Davidson25 Jun 2021 23:02 UTC
63 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Eco­nomic Growth

leopold3 Sep 2019 13:23 UTC
116 points
31 comments1 min readEA link

Can we drive de­vel­op­ment at scale? An in­terim up­date on eco­nomic growth work

Stephen Clare27 Oct 2020 11:14 UTC
98 points
14 comments23 min readEA link

In­ter­ven­tion Re­port: Char­ter Cities

David Rhys Bernard12 Jun 2021 13:54 UTC
133 points
19 comments51 min readEA link

Does Eco­nomic His­tory Point Toward a Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Ben Garfinkel2 Sep 2020 12:48 UTC
137 points
58 comments3 min readEA link

[Link post] Are we ap­proach­ing the sin­gu­lar­ity?

John G. Halstead13 Feb 2021 11:04 UTC
48 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

On Progress and Prosperity

Paul_Christiano15 Oct 2014 7:03 UTC
46 points
34 comments9 min readEA link

‘Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Growth’ Deep Dive #1 - Sum­mary of the Paper

Alex HT21 Jun 2020 9:22 UTC
64 points
7 comments10 min readEA link

Progress stud­ies vs. longter­mist EA: some differences

Max_Daniel31 May 2021 21:35 UTC
83 points
27 comments3 min readEA link

Help me find the crux be­tween EA/​XR and Progress Studies

jasoncrawford2 Jun 2021 18:47 UTC
112 points
37 comments3 min readEA link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s model of eco­nomic growth and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom_Davidson19 Jul 2021 21:47 UTC
89 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Re­port on So­cial Re­turns to Pro­duc­tivity Growth

Tom_Davidson15 Jul 2022 22:31 UTC
55 points
5 comments2 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the de­vel­op­ment gap

Stephen Clare7 Dec 2022 12:57 UTC
94 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

“Why Na­tions Fail” and the long-ter­mist view of global poverty

Ben_Kuhn16 Jul 2019 7:59 UTC
140 points
20 comments13 min readEA link
(www.benkuhn.net)

Su­per-ex­po­nen­tial growth im­plies that ac­cel­er­at­ing growth is unim­por­tant in the long run

kbog11 Aug 2020 7:20 UTC
36 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] Has any­thing in the EA global health sphere changed since the cri­tiques of “ran­domista de­vel­op­ment” 1-2 years ago?

Max Görlitz2 Dec 2021 12:14 UTC
49 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Open Philan­thropy Shal­low In­ves­ti­ga­tion: Telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions in LMICs

Lauren Gilbert18 Jul 2022 21:26 UTC
70 points
9 comments13 min readEA link

Progress book recommendations

Daniel May8 Aug 2019 20:47 UTC
73 points
7 comments17 min readEA link
(danielmamay.github.io)

[Question] Are we en­ter­ing an ex­per­i­ment in Modern Mone­tary The­ory (MMT)?

AslanP11 May 2020 22:55 UTC
17 points
13 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] How bad is coro­n­avirus re­ally?

Holly_Elmore8 May 2020 17:29 UTC
17 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Money can buy you (a bit) of happiness

William_MacAskill29 Jul 2013 4:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Study Group for Progress – 50% off for EAs

jasoncrawford3 Sep 2020 5:04 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(rootsofprogress.org)

AMA: Ja­son Crawford, The Roots of Progress

jasoncrawford3 Dec 2020 16:49 UTC
44 points
81 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] EA to­wards hu­mans = effec­tive vi­o­lence to­wards farm an­i­mals?

Nicolas_Feil3 Dec 2020 17:22 UTC
7 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the Im­pact of Eco­nomic Growth on Meat Consumption

kbog22 Dec 2015 11:30 UTC
23 points
38 comments4 min readEA link

Three Im­pacts of Ma­chine Intelligence

Paul_Christiano23 Aug 2013 10:10 UTC
33 points
4 comments9 min readEA link
(rationalaltruist.com)

Notes on Hen­rich’s “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” (2020)

MichaelA25 Mar 2021 5:04 UTC
38 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Poli­cy­mak­ing for Posterity

EA Handbook2 Sep 2008 1:39 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.nber.org)

[Link] The Case for Char­ter Cities Within the EA Frame­work (CCI)

Milan_Griffes23 Sep 2019 20:08 UTC
27 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Your World, Bet­ter: Global progress for mid­dle schoolers

Aaron Gertler11 Apr 2021 21:57 UTC
15 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.cgdev.org)

Robert Wiblin: Mak­ing sense of long-term in­di­rect effects

EA Global6 Aug 2016 0:40 UTC
13 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Global lead ex­po­sure report

David Rhys Bernard29 May 2021 16:56 UTC
122 points
2 comments42 min readEA link

Notes on Per­sis­tence and Eco­nomic Development

Sam Enright20 Jul 2021 16:19 UTC
14 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

The Du­pli­ca­tor: In­stant Clon­ing Would Make the World Econ­omy Explode

Holden Karnofsky20 Jul 2021 16:41 UTC
86 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Towards a longter­mist frame­work for eval­u­at­ing democ­racy-re­lated interventions

Tom Barnes28 Jul 2021 13:23 UTC
94 points
5 comments33 min readEA link

Read­ing Group: Stub­born Attachments

arushigupta6 Aug 2021 19:58 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

This Can’t Go On

Holden Karnofsky3 Aug 2021 15:53 UTC
115 points
29 comments10 min readEA link

How to Ac­cel­er­ate Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress—New Things Un­der the Sun

BrownHairedEevee3 Oct 2021 17:49 UTC
13 points
0 comments9 min readEA link
(www.newthingsunderthesun.com)

Phil Tram­mell on Eco­nomic Growth Un­der Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Michaël Trazzi24 Oct 2021 18:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments54 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Carl Shul­man – What por­tion of a boost to global GDP goes to the poor?

Tessa24 Jan 2014 1:15 UTC
24 points
4 comments3 min readEA link
(reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com)

Row­ing, Steer­ing, An­chor­ing, Equity, Mutiny

Holden Karnofsky30 Nov 2021 21:11 UTC
94 points
32 comments18 min readEA link

The case against degrowth

Stijn30 Dec 2021 18:05 UTC
54 points
15 comments13 min readEA link

Hits-based de­vel­op­ment: fund­ing de­vel­op­ing-coun­try economists

Michael_Wiebe1 Jan 2022 0:28 UTC
75 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] What value would Open Phil’s Global Health and Wel­lbe­ing frame­work put on eco­nomic growth?

BrownHairedEevee6 Jan 2022 7:43 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Cri­tique of OpenPhil’s macroe­co­nomic policy advocacy

Hauke Hillebrandt24 Mar 2022 22:03 UTC
133 points
39 comments25 min readEA link

Eco­nomic Pie Re­search as a Cause Area

mediche15 Apr 2022 10:41 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Could eco­nomic growth sub­stan­tially slow down in the next decade?

ekka11 May 2022 18:49 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

The Case for Mak­ing Pro­fes­sional De­grees Un­der­grad­u­ate Degrees

ColdButtonIssues8 Jul 2022 19:56 UTC
38 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Hu­man­ity’s vast fu­ture and its im­pli­ca­tions for cause prioritization

BrownHairedEevee26 Jul 2022 5:04 UTC
34 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(sunyshore.substack.com)

How do changes in rich world eco­nomic con­di­tions af­fect poor coun­tries?

Emmett Sexton23 Aug 2022 11:47 UTC
28 points
2 comments23 min readEA link

The great en­ergy de­scent—Part 2: Limits to growth and why we prob­a­bly won’t reach the stars

Corentin Biteau31 Aug 2022 21:51 UTC
10 points
0 comments25 min readEA link

The great en­ergy de­scent (short ver­sion) - An im­por­tant thing EA might have missed

Corentin Biteau31 Aug 2022 21:50 UTC
49 points
79 comments10 min readEA link

The Long Reflec­tion as the Great Stag­na­tion

Larks1 Sep 2022 20:55 UTC
32 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

In­creas­ing Ur­ban Den­sity as a Recom­mended Cause Area?

Niki Kotsenko11 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC
7 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

[Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prizes] ROTE NDAO ~ A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN A LAND OF OPPORTUNITY

Vania28 Aug 2022 7:11 UTC
5 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

[Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prizes] So­cial En­ter­prises in Africa

elvin26 Aug 2022 7:18 UTC
5 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Two con­trast­ing mod­els of “in­tel­li­gence” and fu­ture growth

Magnus Vinding24 Nov 2022 11:54 UTC
55 points
16 comments26 min readEA link

Eco­nomics and Pop­u­la­tion Growth Read­ing List

LuisMota30 Nov 2022 15:17 UTC
7 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Model­ing the Hu­man Tra­jec­tory (Open Philan­thropy)

Aaron Gertler16 Jun 2020 9:27 UTC
50 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Long-term in­vest­ment fund at Founders Pledge

SjirH10 Jan 2020 19:09 UTC
139 points
28 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Sys­temic change, global poverty erad­i­ca­tion, and a ca­reer plan re­think: am I right?

NoteworthyTrain14 Jul 2020 7:54 UTC
53 points
47 comments13 min readEA link

‘Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Growth’ Deep Dive #2 - A Crit­i­cal Look at Model Conclusions

Ben Snodin18 Aug 2020 10:25 UTC
58 points
9 comments17 min readEA link

‘Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Growth’ Deep Dive #3 - Ex­ten­sions and Variations

Alex HT20 Dec 2020 12:39 UTC
5 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

On The Rel­a­tive Long-Term Fu­ture Im­por­tance of In­vest­ments in Eco­nomic Growth and Global Catas­trophic Risk Reduction

poliboni30 Mar 2020 20:11 UTC
33 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing: Progress Stud­ies Read­ing Group

SamiM30 Aug 2020 10:14 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Tax Havens and the case for Tax Justice

Alex Barnes 15 Sep 2020 18:06 UTC
53 points
10 comments10 min readEA link

Key­ne­sian Altruism

Grayden13 Sep 2020 12:18 UTC
43 points
18 comments7 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing LEEP: Lead Ex­po­sure Elimi­na­tion Project

Jack6 Oct 2020 7:25 UTC
156 points
26 comments5 min readEA link

Leopold Aschen­bren­ner re­turns to X-risk and growth

nickwhitaker20 Oct 2020 23:24 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Is GDP the right met­ric?

Lars Mennen20 Jan 2021 10:20 UTC
16 points
8 comments5 min readEA link
(larsmennen.me)

As­sump­tions about the far fu­ture and cause priority

Jc_Mourrat13 Nov 2019 20:06 UTC
45 points
30 comments1 min readEA link

Lant Pritch­ett’s “smell test”: is your im­pact eval­u­a­tion ask­ing ques­tions that mat­ter?

Aaron Gertler18 Mar 2020 23:38 UTC
36 points
7 comments3 min readEA link
(www.cgdev.org)

An in­te­grated model to eval­u­ate the im­pact of an­i­mal products

kbog9 Jan 2019 11:04 UTC
40 points
18 comments4 min readEA link

Effec­tive Altru­ism and In­ter­na­tional Trade

brb24315 Oct 2019 3:21 UTC
38 points
77 comments5 min readEA link

If tech progress might be bad, what should we tell peo­ple about it?

Robert_Wiblin16 Feb 2016 10:26 UTC
21 points
18 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Can the moral cir­cle be ex­panded through eco­nomic se­cu­rity and/​or poli­ti­cal trust?

Jan-WillemvanPutten13 Apr 2021 7:59 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Book Re­view: En­light­en­ment Now, by Steven Pinker

Aaron Gertler21 Oct 2018 23:12 UTC
24 points
6 comments11 min readEA link

Seven things that sur­prised us in our first year work­ing in policy—Lead Ex­po­sure Elimi­na­tion Pro­ject

Jack14 May 2021 9:40 UTC
237 points
7 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] Are there any eval­u­a­tions or im­pact as­sess­ments of cir­cu­lar econ­omy or re­lated ini­ti­a­tives?

Erich_Grunewald28 Jun 2021 9:41 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How large can the so­lar sys­tem’s econ­omy get?

WilliamKiely1 Jul 2021 2:29 UTC
8 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Eco­nomic in­equal­ity and the long-term future

Global Priorities Institute30 Apr 2021 13:26 UTC
11 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The end of eco­nomic growth? Un­in­tended con­se­quences of a de­clin­ing population

Global Priorities Institute30 Sep 2020 13:29 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Eco­nomic growth un­der trans­for­ma­tive AI

Global Priorities Institute3 Feb 2021 14:31 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Ret­ro­spec­tive on Shall the Reli­gious In­herit The Earth

isabel22 Feb 2022 23:25 UTC
102 points
11 comments34 min readEA link

In­ter­pret­ing the Sys­temis­tas-Ran­domis­tas de­bate on de­vel­op­ment strategy

Venkatesh29 Mar 2022 16:53 UTC
27 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

Bulk­ing in­for­ma­tion ad­di­tion­al­ities in global de­vel­op­ment for medium-term lo­cal prosperity

brb24311 Apr 2022 17:52 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Dis­cus­sion on Thomas Philip­pon’s pa­per on TFP growth be­ing linear

Arjun Yadav30 Apr 2022 13:17 UTC
40 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Global In­come Coin: a UBI-gen­er­at­ing currency

Jasper Driessens11 May 2022 9:43 UTC
28 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Is green growth or de­growth the best near-term fu­ture?

Goran Haden15 May 2022 13:14 UTC
2 points
10 comments2 min readEA link

New cause area: bi­valve aquaculture

Brian Lui12 Jun 2022 11:14 UTC
101 points
38 comments4 min readEA link

How do poor coun­tries get rich: some the­o­ries

Nathan_Barnard26 Jun 2022 10:00 UTC
3 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

[ed­ited] Inequal­ity is a (small) prob­lem for EA and eco­nomic growth

Karthik Tadepalli8 Aug 2022 9:42 UTC
98 points
28 comments7 min readEA link

The Eco­nomic Benefits of Pro­mot­ing and Pro­tect­ing the Rights of LGBTQ+ Com­mu­ni­ties in Devel­op­ing Coun­tries (cause ex­plo­ra­tion)

Susannah Hares10 Aug 2022 15:14 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Cause area pro­posal: In­ter­na­tional Macroe­co­nomic Policy

arushigupta12 Aug 2022 5:58 UTC
36 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

The case for Green Growth skep­ti­cism and GDP agnosticism

ErolaPons13 Aug 2022 18:36 UTC
48 points
22 comments14 min readEA link

The Wages of North-At­lantic Bias

Sach Wry19 Aug 2022 12:34 UTC
6 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Cap­i­tal­ism, power and episte­mol­ogy: a cri­tique of EA

Matthew_Doran22 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
14 points
14 comments23 min readEA link

The great en­ergy de­scent—Part 1: Can re­new­ables re­place fos­sil fuels?

Corentin Biteau31 Aug 2022 21:51 UTC
25 points
0 comments22 min readEA link

Does Eco­nomic Growth Mean­ingfully Im­prove Well-be­ing? An Op­ti­mistic Re-Anal­y­sis of Easter­lin’s Re­search: Founders Pledge

Vadim Albinsky27 Sep 2022 16:28 UTC
255 points
45 comments10 min readEA link

Growth The­ory Read­ing List

LuisMota12 Oct 2022 14:26 UTC
47 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Pop­u­la­tion with high IQ pre­dicts real GDP bet­ter than population

Vasco Grilo17 Oct 2022 7:22 UTC
8 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Progress Stud­ies Read­ing List

LuisMota2 Nov 2022 16:21 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Assess­ing the case for pop­u­la­tion growth as a priority

Charlotte15 Nov 2022 23:13 UTC
96 points
7 comments21 min readEA link

Inequal­ity, well-be­ing, and the prob­lem of the un­known re­port­ing function

BarryGrimes9 Dec 2022 16:28 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.pnas.org)