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Forecasting

Core TagLast edit: 31 Jan 2024 15:57 UTC by Will Howard

Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be an area of investment for improving our ability to make good decisions.

The State of Forecasting within EA

There are some major branches of forecasting within the EA movement:

These areas in more depth

Institutional forecasting.

Forecasting in institutions can range from predicting broad metrics to specific outcomes based on specific decisions. There can often be problems with buy-in from key stakeholders, who either see this as an unnecessary step or are concerned for their own status.

Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is hard but many top forecasters use common techniques. This suggests that forecasting is a skill that can be learnt and practised.

Base rates

Reference Class Forecasting on Wikipedia

Suppose we are trying to find the probability that an event will occur within the next 5 years. One good place to start is by asking “of all similar time periods, what fraction of the time does this event occur?”. This is the base rate.

If we want to know the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov. 1st, 2024, we could ask

These are all examples of using base rates. [These examples are taken from Base Rates and Reference Classes by jsteinhardt.]

Base rates represent the outside view for a given question. They are a good place to start but can often be improved on by updating the probability according to an inside view.

Note that there are often several reference classes we could use, each implying a different base rate. The problem of deciding which class to use is known as the reference class problem.

Calibration training

A forecaster is said to be calibrated if the events they say have a X% chance of happening, happen X% of the time.

Most people are overconfident. When they say an event has a 99% chance of happening, often the events happen much less frequently than that.

This natural overconfidence can be corrected with calibration training. In calibration training, you are asked to answer a set of factual questions, assigning a probability to each of your answers.

A list of calibration training exercises can be found here.

Question decomposition

Much like Fermi estimation, questions about future events can often be decomposed into many different questions, these questions can be answered, and the answers to these questions can be used to reconstruct an answer to the original question.

Suppose you are interested in whether AI will cause a catastrophe by 2100. For AI to cause such an event, several things need to be true: (1) it needs to be possible to build advanced AI with agentic planning and strategic awareness by 2100, (2) there need to be strong incentives to apply such a system, (3) it needs to be difficult to align such a system should it be deployed, (4) a deployed and unaligned AI would act in unintended and high-impact power seeking ways causing trillions of dollars in damage, (5) of these consequences will result in the permanent disempowerment of all humanity and (6) this disempowerment will constitute an existential catastrophe. Taking the probabilities that Eli Lifland assigned to each question gives a 80%, 85%, 75%, 90%, 80% and 95% chance of events 1 through 6 respectively. Since each event is conditional on the ones before it, we can find the probability of the original question by multiplying all the probabilities together. This gives Eli Lifland a probability of existential risk from misaligned AI before 2100 to be approximately 35%. For more detail see Eli’s original post here.

Decomposing questions into their constituent parts, assigning probabilities to these sub-questions, and combining these probabilities to answer the original questions is believed to improve forecasts. This is because, while each forecast is noisy, combining the estimates from many questions cancels the noise and leaves us with the signal.

Question decomposition is also good at increasing epistemic legibility. It helps forecasters to communicate to others why they’ve made the forecast that they did and it allows them to identify their specific points of disagreement.

Premortems

Premortems on Wikipedia

A premortem is a strategy used once you’ve assigned a probability to an event. You ask yourself to imagine that the forecast was wrong and you then work backwards to determine what could potentially have caused this.

It is simply a way to reframe the question “in what ways might I be wrong?” but in a way that reduces motivated reasoning caused by attachment to the bottom line.

Practice

Getting Started on the Forecasting Wiki

While the above techniques are useful, they are no substitute for actually making predictions. Get out there and make predictions! Use the above techniques. Keep track of your predictions. Periodically evaluate questions that have been resolved and review your performance. Assess the degree to which you are calibrated. Look out for systematic mistakes that you might be making. Make more predictions! Over time, like with any skill, your ability can and should improve.

Other Resources

Other resources include:

State of the Art

For many years there have been calls to apply forecasting techniques to non-academic domains including journalism, policy, investing and business strategy. Several organisations now exist within these niche.

Metaculus

Metaculus is a popular and established web platform for forecasting. Their questions mainly focus on geopolitics, the coronavirus pandemic and topics of interest to Effective Altruism.

They host prediction competitions with real money prizes and collect and track public predictions made by various figures.

Cultivate Labs

Cultivate Labs build tools that companies can use to crowdsource information from among their employees. This helps leadership to understand the consensus of people working on the ground and use this to improve the decisions they make.

Kalshi

Kalshi provide real money prediction markets on geopolitical events. The financial options they provide are intended to be used as hedges for political risk.

Manifold.Markets

Manifold.Markets is a prediction market platform that uses play money. It is noteworthy for its ease of use, great UI and the fact that the market creator decides how the market resolves.

QURI

QURI is a research organisation that builds tools that make it easier to make good forecasts. Their most notable tool is Squiggle—a programming language designed to be used to make legible forecasts in a wide range of contexts.

This is a broad topic group that captures several sub-topics:

Long list of AI ques­tions

NunoSempere6 Dec 2023 11:12 UTC
124 points
14 comments86 min readEA link

Two di­rec­tions for re­search on fore­cast­ing and de­ci­sion making

Paal Fredrik Skjørten Kvarberg11 Mar 2023 15:33 UTC
48 points
5 comments21 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of stu­dent pro­grams for AI safety research

Center for AI Safety10 Jul 2023 17:23 UTC
53 points
7 comments15 min readEA link

Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ Cross-Cause Cost-Effec­tive­ness Model: In­tro­duc­tion and Overview

Derek Shiller3 Nov 2023 12:26 UTC
220 points
87 comments13 min readEA link

Analysing In­di­vi­d­ual Con­tri­bu­tions to the Me­tac­u­lus Com­mu­nity Prediction

nikos8 May 2023 22:58 UTC
28 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Model­ing the im­pact of AI safety field-build­ing programs

Center for AI Safety10 Jul 2023 17:22 UTC
83 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of pro­fes­sional field-build­ing pro­grams for AI safety research

Center for AI Safety10 Jul 2023 17:26 UTC
38 points
2 comments18 min readEA link

Squig­gle: Why and how to use it

brook30 Jan 2023 14:14 UTC
44 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

Adam Binks11 Jul 2023 15:13 UTC
136 points
15 comments2 min readEA link
(fatebook.io)

Ex­plor­ing Me­tac­u­lus’s AI Track Record

Peter Scoblic1 May 2023 21:02 UTC
52 points
5 comments7 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

The Odyssean Process

Odyssean Institute24 Nov 2023 13:48 UTC
24 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(www.odysseaninstitute.org)

[Question] Why is EA so en­thu­si­as­tic about fore­cast­ing?

Luis Mota Freitas9 Jul 2023 16:35 UTC
56 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Sum­mary of posts on XPT fore­casts on AI risk and timelines

Forecasting Research Institute25 Jul 2023 8:42 UTC
28 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Prior prob­a­bil­ity of this be­ing the most im­por­tant century

Vasco Grilo🔸15 Jul 2023 7:18 UTC
8 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Can a ter­ror­ist at­tack cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸2 Dec 2023 8:20 UTC
43 points
8 comments15 min readEA link

The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app

Sage20 Feb 2023 11:22 UTC
69 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Ex­plor­ing Me­tac­u­lus’ com­mu­nity predictions

Vasco Grilo🔸24 Mar 2023 7:59 UTC
95 points
17 comments10 min readEA link

Ac­cu­racy Agree­ments: A Flex­ible Alter­na­tive to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Ozzie Gooen20 Apr 2023 3:09 UTC
37 points
5 comments4 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

AI Risk & Policy Fore­casts from Me­tac­u­lus & FLI’s AI Path­ways Workshop

Will Aldred16 May 2023 8:53 UTC
41 points
0 comments8 min readEA link

The mar­ket plau­si­bly ex­pects AI soft­ware to cre­ate trillions of dol­lars of value by 2027

Benjamin_Todd6 May 2024 5:16 UTC
88 points
19 comments1 min readEA link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

Famine deaths due to the cli­matic effects of nu­clear war

Vasco Grilo🔸14 Oct 2023 12:05 UTC
40 points
21 comments66 min readEA link

Two con­trast­ing mod­els of “in­tel­li­gence” and fu­ture growth

Magnus Vinding24 Nov 2022 11:54 UTC
74 points
32 comments22 min readEA link

“Full Au­toma­tion” is a Slip­pery Metric

Ozzie Gooen11 Jun 2024 19:53 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Win­ners of the Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion and 80,000 Hours Quan­tifi­ca­tion Challenges

NunoSempere8 Mar 2023 1:03 UTC
62 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

Some es­ti­ma­tion work in the horizon

NunoSempere29 Mar 2023 22:18 UTC
25 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Who is Un­com­fortable Cri­tiquing Who, Around EA?

Ozzie Gooen24 Feb 2023 5:55 UTC
150 points
15 comments11 min readEA link

AGI Catas­tro­phe and Takeover: Some Refer­ence Class-Based Priors

zdgroff24 May 2023 19:14 UTC
103 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

Launch­ing the AI Fore­cast­ing Bench­mark Series Q3 | $30k in Prizes

christian8 Jul 2024 17:20 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Thoughts on “The Offense-Defense Balance Rarely Changes”

Cullen12 Feb 2024 3:26 UTC
42 points
4 comments5 min readEA link

Has Rus­sia’s In­va­sion of Ukraine Changed Your Mind?

JoelMcGuire27 May 2023 18:35 UTC
61 points
14 comments6 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus’ pre­dic­tions are much bet­ter than low-in­for­ma­tion priors

Vasco Grilo🔸11 Apr 2023 8:36 UTC
53 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Bad­ness of eat­ing farmed an­i­mals in terms of smok­ing cigarettes

Vasco Grilo🔸22 Jul 2023 8:45 UTC
26 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Will scal­ing work?

Vasco Grilo🔸4 Feb 2024 9:29 UTC
19 points
1 comment12 min readEA link
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

Ex­pected value and un­cer­tainty with­out full Monte Carlo simulations

Vasco Grilo🔸5 Jan 2024 8:57 UTC
12 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Disen­tan­gling Some Im­por­tant Fore­cast­ing Con­cepts/​Terms

Harrison Durland25 Jun 2023 17:31 UTC
16 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

Can a war cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Once again, not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸25 Jan 2024 7:56 UTC
67 points
29 comments18 min readEA link

A Case for Su­per­hu­man Gover­nance, us­ing AI

Ozzie Gooen7 Jun 2024 0:10 UTC
52 points
26 comments10 min readEA link

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie Gooen26 Jun 2024 0:40 UTC
40 points
6 comments24 min readEA link

The Ra­tionale-Shaped Hole At The Heart Of Forecasting

dschwarz2 Apr 2024 15:51 UTC
149 points
14 comments11 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Value Func­tions: A Flex­ible New For­mat for Value Estimation

Ozzie Gooen18 May 2023 16:39 UTC
58 points
23 comments18 min readEA link

NYT on the Man­i­fest fore­cast­ing conference

Austin9 Oct 2023 21:40 UTC
27 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.nytimes.com)

Uncer­tainty over time and Bayesian updating

David Rhys Bernard25 Oct 2023 15:51 UTC
63 points
2 comments28 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI risk?

Forecasting Research Institute19 Jul 2023 7:43 UTC
97 points
21 comments14 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Q4 Quar­terly Cup!

christian9 Oct 2023 21:36 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Model-Based Policy Anal­y­sis un­der Deep Uncertainty

Max Reddel6 Mar 2023 14:24 UTC
103 points
31 comments21 min readEA link

A sim­ple way of ex­ploit­ing AI’s com­ing eco­nomic im­pact may be highly-impactful

kuira16 Jul 2023 10:30 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A se­lec­tion of cross-cut­ting re­sults from the XPT

Forecasting Research Institute26 Sep 2023 23:50 UTC
18 points
1 comment9 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Fu­ture of AI Series, Based on Re­search Ques­tions by Arb Research

christian13 Mar 2024 21:14 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Don’t In­ter­pret Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Prices as Probabilities

bob5 May 2023 20:23 UTC
78 points
16 comments4 min readEA link

Why I don’t trust forecasters

WobblyPanda221 Jun 2023 6:19 UTC
−3 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Some re­search ideas in forecasting

Jaime Sevilla15 Nov 2022 19:47 UTC
79 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Get your tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2024 by May 13th!

Saul Munn3 May 2024 23:57 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Epoch is hiring a Product and Data Vi­su­al­iza­tion Designer

merilalama25 Nov 2023 0:14 UTC
21 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

Wis­dom of the Crowd vs. “the Best of the Best of the Best”

nikos4 Apr 2023 15:32 UTC
101 points
11 comments12 min readEA link

Iqisa: A Library For Han­dling Fore­cast­ing Datasets

niplav14 Apr 2023 15:15 UTC
46 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Diminish­ing Re­turns in Ma­chine Learn­ing Part 1: Hard­ware Devel­op­ment and the Phys­i­cal Frontier

Brian Chau27 May 2023 12:39 UTC
16 points
3 comments12 min readEA link
(www.fromthenew.world)

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 16:29 UTC
48 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing in the Czech pub­lic ad­minis­tra­tion—pre­limi­nary findings

janklenha16 Mar 2023 14:47 UTC
45 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus: Q2 Cup Kick­off + Q1 Winners

christian10 Apr 2024 21:30 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

New prob­a­bil­is­tic simu­la­tion tool

ProbabilityEnjoyer19 Aug 2023 14:10 UTC
75 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(usedagger.com)

Re­search Sum­mary: Fore­cast­ing with Large Lan­guage Models

Damien Laird2 Apr 2023 10:52 UTC
4 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

AI timelines by bio an­chors: the de­bate in one place

Will Aldred30 Jul 2022 23:04 UTC
93 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

[Me­tac­u­lus Event] April 7 Fore­cast Fri­day: A Pro Fore­caster Pre­sents on Longevity Trends in G7 Coun­tries

christian7 Apr 2023 2:01 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

I made a news site based on pre­dic­tion markets

vandemonian5 Jun 2023 18:33 UTC
226 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

Now THIS is fore­cast­ing: un­der­stand­ing Epoch’s Direct Approach

Elliot Mckernon4 May 2024 12:06 UTC
48 points
2 comments19 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces New ‘Con­di­tional Pair’ Fore­cast Ques­tions for Mak­ing Con­di­tional Predictions

christian20 Feb 2023 13:36 UTC
60 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Why pre­dic­tion mar­kets aren’t popular

Nick Whitaker20 May 2024 14:21 UTC
67 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(worksinprogress.co)

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

basil.halperin10 Jan 2023 16:05 UTC
333 points
177 comments26 min readEA link

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie Gooen21 May 2024 4:09 UTC
46 points
7 comments8 min readEA link

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjustice20 Mar 2023 4:03 UTC
37 points
1 comment27 min readEA link
(samotsvety.org)

Why Cost-Effec­tive­ness ≠ Effec­tive­ness/​Cost

wes R17 Dec 2023 8:52 UTC
0 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

New Open Philan­thropy Grant­mak­ing Pro­gram: Forecasting

Open Philanthropy19 Feb 2024 23:27 UTC
92 points
59 comments1 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Pre­dict­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of fu­ture R&D pro­jects and aca­demic research

Falk Lieder8 May 2023 9:58 UTC
23 points
3 comments11 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

Trans­for­ma­tive AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Ted Sanders6 Jun 2023 15:51 UTC
92 points
92 comments5 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

De­sign­ing Ar­tifi­cial Wis­dom: De­ci­sion Fore­cast­ing AI & Futarchy

Jordan Arel14 Jul 2024 5:10 UTC
5 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

[Question] Why most peo­ple in EA are con­fi­dent that AI will sur­pass hu­mans?

jackchang11025 May 2023 13:39 UTC
2 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Guessti­mate: Why and how to use it

brook24 Jan 2023 14:16 UTC
25 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

The Char­ity En­trepreneur­ship top ideas new char­ity pre­dic­tion market

CE17 May 2023 14:30 UTC
101 points
10 comments9 min readEA link

OPTIC [Fore­cast­ing Comp] — Pilot Postmortem

OPTIC19 May 2023 10:10 UTC
43 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

A Dou­ble Fea­ture on The Extropians

Maxwell Tabarrok3 Jun 2023 18:29 UTC
47 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Space Tech­nol­ogy & Cli­mate Fore­cast­ing Ini­ti­a­tive

christian11 Oct 2023 1:29 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Pro­ject Idea: Pro­files Ag­gre­gat­ing Fore­cast­ing Perfor­mance Metrics

Damien Laird17 Apr 2023 10:29 UTC
2 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Could Ukraine re­take Crimea?

mhint1991 May 2023 1:06 UTC
6 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

How Long Do Policy Changes Mat­ter? New Paper

zdgroff2 Nov 2023 20:53 UTC
272 points
37 comments5 min readEA link
(zachfreitasgroff.com)

An­nounc­ing “Fore­cast­ing Ex­is­ten­tial Risks: Ev­i­dence from a Long-Run Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment”

Forecasting Research Institute10 Jul 2023 17:04 UTC
160 points
31 comments2 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment to Eval­u­ate Fo­cused Re­search Or­ga­ni­za­tions, in Part­ner­ship With the Fed­er­a­tion of Amer­i­can Scien­tists

christian3 Oct 2023 16:44 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces New Fore­cast Scores, New Leader­board & Medals

christian20 Nov 2023 20:33 UTC
13 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An­nounc­ing the Con­fido app: bring­ing fore­cast­ing to everyone

Blanka16 May 2023 10:25 UTC
104 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

The Top AI Safety Bets for 2023: GiveWiki’s Lat­est Recommendations

Dawn Drescher11 Nov 2023 9:04 UTC
10 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

Misha Yagudin and Ozzie Gooen Dis­cuss LLMs and Effec­tive Altruism

Ozzie Gooen6 Jan 2023 22:59 UTC
47 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

When you plan ac­cord­ing to your AI timelines, should you put more weight on the me­dian fu­ture, or the me­dian fu­ture | even­tual AI al­ign­ment suc­cess? ⚖️

Jeffrey Ladish5 Jan 2023 1:55 UTC
16 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

En­trepreneur­ship ETG Might Be Bet­ter Than 80k Thought

Ben_West🔸29 Dec 2022 17:51 UTC
134 points
33 comments2 min readEA link

Un­jour­nal Evals: “Ad­vance Mar­ket Com­mit­ments: In­sights from The­ory and Ex­pe­rience”

david_reinstein21 Mar 2023 16:59 UTC
27 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(unjournal.pubpub.org)

AI risk/​re­ward: A sim­ple model

Nathan Young4 May 2023 19:12 UTC
37 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

Play Re­grantor: Move up to $250,000 to Your Top High-Im­pact Pro­jects!

Dawn Drescher17 May 2023 16:51 UTC
58 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(impactmarkets.substack.com)

Con­tin­u­ous doesn’t mean slow

Tom_Davidson10 May 2023 12:17 UTC
64 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

How We Think about Ex­pected Im­pact in Cli­mate Philanthropy

jackva28 Nov 2023 19:02 UTC
39 points
8 comments25 min readEA link

How bad a fu­ture do ML re­searchers ex­pect?

Katja_Grace13 Mar 2023 5:47 UTC
165 points
20 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Novem­ber and De­cem­ber 2022

NunoSempere9 Jan 2023 11:16 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

An­nounc­ing the SPT Model Web App for AI Governance

Paolo Bova4 Aug 2022 10:45 UTC
42 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Pa­trick Gruban on Effec­tive Altru­ism Ger­many and Non­profit Boards in EA

Ozzie Gooen5 May 2023 17:23 UTC
37 points
2 comments45 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­sents: Trans­for­ma­tive Science at Startup Speed

christian31 Oct 2023 21:12 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing a sub­fo­rum for fore­cast­ing & estimation

Sharang Phadke26 Dec 2022 20:51 UTC
72 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing for Policy (FORPOL) - Main take­aways, prac­ti­cal learn­ings & report

janklenha18 Sep 2023 12:27 UTC
36 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

Jaime Sevilla3 Sep 2021 9:58 UTC
116 points
62 comments9 min readEA link

Nu­clear war tail risk has been ex­ag­ger­ated?

Vasco Grilo🔸25 Feb 2024 9:14 UTC
41 points
21 comments28 min readEA link

Suggested fore­cast­ing wiki text addition

Nathan Young29 Dec 2022 11:55 UTC
5 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing With LLMs—An Open and Promis­ing Re­search Direction

Harrison Durland12 Mar 2024 4:23 UTC
13 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Non-al­ign­ment pro­ject ideas for mak­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI go well

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:23 UTC
64 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

A com­pute-based frame­work for think­ing about the fu­ture of AI

Matthew_Barnett31 May 2023 22:00 UTC
96 points
36 comments19 min readEA link

Con­cepts of ex­is­ten­tial catastrophe

Vasco Grilo🔸15 Apr 2024 17:16 UTC
11 points
1 comment8 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Prior knowl­edge elic­i­ta­tion: The past, pre­sent, and fu­ture [re­view pa­per 2023]

EdoArad10 Jan 2024 9:32 UTC
9 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Distinc­tions when Dis­cussing Utility Functions

Ozzie Gooen8 Mar 2024 18:43 UTC
15 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Man­i­fund: What we’re fund­ing (weeks 2-4)

Austin4 Aug 2023 16:00 UTC
65 points
6 comments5 min readEA link
(manifund.substack.com)

Can a pan­demic cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Pos­si­bly, at least on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸15 Jul 2024 17:07 UTC
29 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav27 May 2022 19:08 UTC
21 points
3 comments41 min readEA link

Straight­for­wardly elic­it­ing prob­a­bil­ities from GPT-3

NunoSempere9 Feb 2023 19:25 UTC
41 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Trends in the dol­lar train­ing cost of ma­chine learn­ing systems

Ben Cottier1 Feb 2023 14:48 UTC
63 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Our World in Data] AI timelines: What do ex­perts in ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence ex­pect for the fu­ture? (Roser, 2023)

Will Aldred7 Feb 2023 14:52 UTC
89 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(ourworldindata.org)

Fore­cast­ing ac­ci­den­tally-caused pandemics

JoshuaBlake17 Jan 2024 19:36 UTC
48 points
4 comments4 min readEA link
(blog.joshuablake.co.uk)

Guessti­mate: Why and How to Use It

brook23 Jan 2023 19:37 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Have you tried to bring fore­cast­ing tech­niques to your com­pany? How did it work out?

BrownHairedEevee5 Feb 2023 0:42 UTC
24 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

aaron_mai16 Jan 2023 11:35 UTC
22 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

Sum­mary of Si­tu­a­tional Aware­ness—The Decade Ahead

OscarD8 Jun 2024 11:29 UTC
140 points
5 comments18 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie Gooen22 May 2024 21:49 UTC
35 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Ideas for Next-Gen­er­a­tion Writ­ing Plat­forms, us­ing LLMs

Ozzie Gooen4 Jun 2024 18:40 UTC
17 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

How evals might (or might not) pre­vent catas­trophic risks from AI

Akash7 Feb 2023 20:16 UTC
28 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC
435 points
116 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Pro­ject idea: AI for epistemics

Benjamin_Todd19 May 2024 19:36 UTC
45 points
12 comments3 min readEA link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

Why does Academia+EA pro­duce so few on­line videos?

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:49 UTC
24 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Case study: The Lübeck vaccine

NunoSempere5 Jul 2024 14:57 UTC
43 points
11 comments4 min readEA link
(sentinel-team.org)

Sur­vey of 2,778 AI au­thors: six parts in pictures

Katja_Grace6 Jan 2024 4:43 UTC
176 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

How many peo­ple are work­ing (di­rectly) on re­duc­ing ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI?

Benjamin Hilton17 Jan 2023 14:03 UTC
116 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

On the fu­ture of lan­guage models

Owen Cotton-Barratt20 Dec 2023 16:58 UTC
115 points
3 comments36 min readEA link

AI Im­pacts: His­toric trends in tech­nolog­i­cal progress

Aaron Gertler12 Feb 2020 0:08 UTC
55 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

[Draft] The hum­ble cos­mol­o­gist’s P(doom) paradox

titotal16 Mar 2024 11:13 UTC
41 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Can a con­flict cause hu­man ex­tinc­tion? Yet again, not on priors

Vasco Grilo🔸19 Jun 2024 16:59 UTC
19 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Is Fore­cast­ing a Promis­ing EA Cause Area?

Ozzie Gooen25 Mar 2024 20:36 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Es­ti­mates on ex­pected effects of move­ment/​pres­sure group/​field build­ing?

jackva15 Feb 2024 11:35 UTC
39 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

What Does a Marginal Grant at LTFF Look Like? Fund­ing Pri­ori­ties and Grant­mak­ing Thresh­olds at the Long-Term Fu­ture Fund

Linch10 Aug 2023 20:11 UTC
175 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Re­search In­sti­tute (we’re hiring)

Tegan13 Dec 2022 12:11 UTC
168 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Open Sourc­ing Metaculus

christian25 Jun 2024 18:40 UTC
75 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

GDP per cap­ita in 2050

Hauke Hillebrandt6 May 2024 15:14 UTC
129 points
11 comments16 min readEA link
(hauke.substack.com)

Govern­ments Might Pre­fer Bring­ing Re­sources Back to the So­lar Sys­tem Rather than Space Set­tle­ment in Order to Main­tain Con­trol, Given that Govern­ing In­ter­stel­lar Set­tle­ments Looks Al­most Im­pos­si­ble

David Mathers29 May 2023 11:16 UTC
36 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing timelines

Zach Stein-Perlman10 Mar 2023 17:30 UTC
30 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­sents: Does Gen­er­a­tive AI In­fringe Copy­right?

christian6 Nov 2023 23:41 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Us­ing Points to Rate Differ­ent Kinds of Evidence

Ozzie Gooen25 Aug 2023 19:26 UTC
33 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Open Philan­thropy AI Wor­ld­views Contest

Jason Schukraft10 Mar 2023 2:33 UTC
137 points
33 comments3 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Quan­tify­ing and in­ter­pret­ing the risks of mountaineering

Vasco Grilo🔸3 Jun 2023 8:25 UTC
19 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

A flaw in a sim­ple ver­sion of wor­ld­view diversification

NunoSempere15 May 2023 18:12 UTC
45 points
22 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Fore­cast­ing ex­treme outcomes

AidanGoth9 Jan 2023 15:02 UTC
46 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

14 Ways ML Could Im­prove In­for­ma­tive Video

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Open Tech­ni­cal Challenges around Prob­a­bil­is­tic Pro­grams and Javascript

Ozzie Gooen26 Aug 2023 2:04 UTC
39 points
3 comments6 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Scott Alexan­der re­acts to OpenAI’s lat­est post

Akash11 Mar 2023 22:24 UTC
105 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets cov­ered in the NYT pod­cast “Hard Fork”

Austin13 Oct 2023 18:43 UTC
24 points
1 comment9 min readEA link
(www.nytimes.com)

Les­sons on pro­ject man­age­ment from “How Big Things Get Done”

Cristina Schmidt Ibáñez17 May 2023 19:15 UTC
29 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Welfare ranges per calorie consumption

Vasco Grilo🔸24 Jun 2023 8:47 UTC
12 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

FLI pod­cast se­ries, “Imag­ine A World”, about as­pira­tional fu­tures with AGI

Jackson Wagner13 Oct 2023 16:03 UTC
18 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

The the­o­ret­i­cal com­pu­ta­tional limit of the So­lar Sys­tem is 1.47x10^49 bits per sec­ond.

William the Kiwi17 Oct 2023 2:52 UTC
12 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

What are peo­ple up to in the world?

Tristan Williams13 Jan 2023 23:25 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

LLM-Se­cured Sys­tems: A Gen­eral-Pur­pose Tool For Struc­tured Transparency

Ozzie Gooen18 Jun 2024 0:20 UTC
20 points
1 comment21 min readEA link

Wild an­i­mal welfare? Stable to­tal­i­tar­i­anism? Pre­dict which new EA cause area will go main­stream!

Jackson Wagner11 Mar 2024 14:27 UTC
48 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Marginal value (or lack thereof) of voting

Vasco Grilo🔸11 Mar 2024 9:01 UTC
7 points
4 comments14 min readEA link

A Gen­tle In­tro­duc­tion to Risk Frame­works Beyond Forecasting

pending_survival11 Apr 2024 9:15 UTC
81 points
4 comments27 min readEA link

Pro­ject ideas: Epistemics

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:26 UTC
43 points
1 comment17 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

EA could use bet­ter in­ter­nal com­mu­ni­ca­tions infrastructure

Ozzie Gooen12 Jan 2023 1:07 UTC
67 points
11 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Lan­guage mod­els sur­prised us

Ajeya29 Aug 2023 21:18 UTC
59 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

How to eval­u­ate rel­a­tive im­pact in high-un­cer­tainty con­texts? An up­date on re­search method­ol­ogy & grant­mak­ing of FP Cli­mate

jackva26 May 2023 17:30 UTC
84 points
8 comments16 min readEA link

You prob­a­bly want to donate any Man­i­fold cur­rency this week

Henri Thunberg23 Apr 2024 23:18 UTC
84 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

De­com­pos­ing Agency — ca­pa­bil­ities with­out desires

Owen Cotton-Barratt11 Jul 2024 9:38 UTC
34 points
1 comment12 min readEA link
(strangecities.substack.com)

Disper­sion in the ex­tinc­tion risk pre­dic­tions made in the Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Per­sua­sion Tournament

Vasco Grilo🔸10 May 2024 16:48 UTC
22 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AI Safety Im­pact Mar­kets: Your Char­ity Eval­u­a­tor for AI Safety

Dawn Drescher1 Oct 2023 10:47 UTC
26 points
4 comments6 min readEA link
(impactmarkets.substack.com)

Take­off speeds pre­sen­ta­tion at Anthropic

Tom_Davidson4 Jun 2024 22:46 UTC
29 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ments that could in­crease risks from nu­clear weapons: A shal­low review

MichaelA9 Feb 2023 15:41 UTC
79 points
3 comments5 min readEA link
(bit.ly)

Un­jour­nal’s 1st eval is up: Re­silient foods pa­per (Denken­berger et al) & AMA ~48 hours

david_reinstein6 Feb 2023 19:18 UTC
77 points
10 comments3 min readEA link
(sciety.org)

How would you es­ti­mate the value of de­lay­ing AGI by 1 day, in marginal dona­tions to GiveWell?

AnonymousTurtle16 Dec 2022 9:25 UTC
30 points
19 comments2 min readEA link

Re­place­ment for PONR concept

kokotajlod2 Sep 2022 0:38 UTC
14 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing In­tro­duc­tions for Col­lab­o­ra­tive Truth Seek­ing Tools

brook23 Jan 2023 16:04 UTC
81 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

YCom­bi­na­tor fraud rates

Ben_West🔸25 Dec 2022 18:01 UTC
90 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

Up­date to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Misha_Yagudin24 Jan 2023 4:27 UTC
120 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

Pre­dictable up­dat­ing about AI risk

Joe_Carlsmith8 May 2023 22:05 UTC
130 points
12 comments36 min readEA link

Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Fo­rum is mostly metaphorical

NunoSempere7 Mar 2023 23:33 UTC
17 points
12 comments1 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Clar­ify­ing and pre­dict­ing AGI

richard_ngo4 May 2023 15:56 UTC
69 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Im­pact Assess­ment of AI Safety Camp (Arb Re­search)

Sam Holton23 Jan 2024 16:32 UTC
87 points
23 comments11 min readEA link

AI Views Snapshots

RobBensinger13 Dec 2023 0:45 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Economists can help with biose­cu­rity via ROI models

freedomandutility14 May 2023 20:10 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

How much do mar­kets value Open AI?

Ben_West🔸14 May 2023 19:28 UTC
39 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

More global warm­ing might be good to miti­gate the food shocks caused by abrupt sun­light re­duc­tion scenarios

Vasco Grilo🔸29 Apr 2023 8:24 UTC
46 points
39 comments13 min readEA link

Shap­ley value, im­por­tance, eas­i­ness and neglectedness

Vasco Grilo🔸5 May 2023 7:33 UTC
27 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Me­tac­u­lus Event] April 14 Fore­cast Fri­day: A Pro Fore­caster on Shift­ing Ter­ri­to­rial Con­trol in Ukraine

christian14 Apr 2023 0:40 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Epoch’s dash­board of key trends and figures in Ma­chine Learning

Jaime Sevilla13 Apr 2023 7:33 UTC
127 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Chart­ing the precipice: The time of per­ils and pri­ori­tiz­ing x-risk

David Rhys Bernard24 Oct 2023 16:25 UTC
86 points
14 comments25 min readEA link

Owain Evans on LLMs, Truth­ful AI, AI Com­po­si­tion, and More

Ozzie Gooen2 May 2023 1:20 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Fo­cus­ing your im­pact on short vs long TAI timelines

kuhanj30 Sep 2023 19:23 UTC
39 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing (Shenani­gans Work­shop)

Milli | Martin1 Apr 2023 16:50 UTC
13 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Can we help in­di­vi­d­ual peo­ple cost-effec­tively? Our trial with three sick kids

NickLaing20 Feb 2024 9:43 UTC
393 points
35 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] Can we eval­u­ate the “tool ver­sus agent” AGI pre­dic­tion?

Ben_West🔸8 Apr 2023 18:35 UTC
63 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Sur­vey on in­ter­me­di­ate goals in AI governance

MichaelA17 Mar 2023 12:44 UTC
155 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

The AI Boom Mainly Benefits Big Firms, but long-term, mar­kets will concentrate

Hauke Hillebrandt29 Oct 2023 8:38 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Defer­ence on AI timelines: sur­vey results

Sam Clarke30 Mar 2023 23:03 UTC
68 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

One form to help us build a crowd­sourced char­ity evaluator

Dawn Drescher8 May 2023 21:03 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Epoch’s newly ex­panded Pa­ram­e­ters, Com­pute and Data Trends in Ma­chine Learn­ing database

Robi Rahman25 Oct 2023 3:03 UTC
38 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris Leong24 Mar 2023 19:43 UTC
27 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Are there dis­ec­onomies of scale in the rep­u­ta­tion of com­mu­ni­ties?

Lizka27 Jul 2023 18:43 UTC
50 points
11 comments17 min readEA link

Anki with Uncer­tainty: Turn any flash­card deck into a cal­ibra­tion train­ing tool

Sage22 Mar 2023 17:26 UTC
57 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(www.quantifiedintuitions.org)

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Superforecasters

Vasco Grilo🔸20 Feb 2024 13:01 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(goodjudgment.com)

Why I think it’s im­por­tant to work on AI forecasting

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2023 21:24 UTC
179 points
10 comments10 min readEA link

Some more pro­jects I’d like to see

finm25 Feb 2023 22:22 UTC
67 points
13 comments24 min readEA link
(finmoorhouse.com)

Quick pro­posal: De­ci­sion mar­ket re­grantor us­ing man­i­fund (please im­prove)

Nathan Young9 Jul 2023 12:49 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #8: Bing Chat, AI labs on safety, and paus­ing Fu­ture Matters

Pablo21 Mar 2023 14:50 UTC
81 points
5 comments24 min readEA link

Tet­lock on low AI xrisk

TeddyW13 Jul 2023 14:19 UTC
10 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

Mis­takes in the moral math­e­mat­ics of ex­is­ten­tial risk (Part 2: Ig­nor­ing back­ground risk) - Reflec­tive altruism

BrownHairedEevee3 Jul 2023 6:34 UTC
84 points
7 comments6 min readEA link
(ineffectivealtruismblog.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

vaniver2 Jan 2023 17:55 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Un­jour­nal: Eval­u­a­tions of “Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence and Eco­nomic Growth”, and new host­ing space

david_reinstein17 Mar 2023 20:20 UTC
47 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(unjournal.pubpub.org)

Mis­takes in the moral math­e­mat­ics of ex­is­ten­tial risk (Part 1: In­tro­duc­tion and cu­mu­la­tive risk) - Reflec­tive altruism

BrownHairedEevee3 Jul 2023 6:33 UTC
74 points
6 comments6 min readEA link
(ineffectivealtruismblog.com)

In­ter­me­di­ate goals for re­duc­ing risks from nu­clear weapons: A shal­low re­view (part 1/​4)

MichaelA1 May 2023 15:04 UTC
35 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

900+ Fore­cast­ers on Whether Rus­sia Will In­vade Ukraine

Metaculus19 Feb 2022 13:29 UTC
51 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

Will protests lead to thou­sands of coro­n­avirus deaths?

Larks3 Jun 2020 19:08 UTC
85 points
58 comments5 min readEA link

Donor Lot­tery Debrief

TimothyTelleenLawton4 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
129 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 15:58 UTC
21 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the Aver­age Im­pact of an ARPA-E Grantmaker

charrin1 Dec 2022 6:34 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

COVID-19 in ru­ral Balochis­tan, Pak­istan: Two in­ter­views from May 2020

NunoSempere16 Dec 2022 11:33 UTC
22 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets Char­ity pro­gram end­ing March 1st

Pat Myron18 Feb 2023 2:12 UTC
28 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(manifoldmarkets.notion.site)

An­nounc­ing Con­fido 2.0: Pro­mot­ing the un­cer­tainty-aware mind­set in orgs

Blanka10 Jan 2024 11:45 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Bank: A way around cur­rent pre­dic­tion mar­ket reg­u­la­tions?

gvst25 Jan 2022 4:21 UTC
25 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 22:30 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie Gooen15 Nov 2020 21:21 UTC
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

Murray15 Feb 2023 14:26 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikos12 Dec 2022 10:05 UTC
74 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC
46 points
8 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Su­perfore­cast­ers

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 5:07 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

David Rhys Bernard: Es­ti­mat­ing long-term effects with­out long-term data

EA Global6 Jul 2020 15:16 UTC
24 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Com­par­ing Su­perfore­cast­ing and the In­tel­li­gence Com­mu­nity Pre­dic­tion Market

LuisEUrtubey12 Apr 2022 9:24 UTC
29 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] How much will pre-trans­for­ma­tive AI speed up R&D?

Ben Snodin31 May 2021 20:20 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2022.

NunoSempere10 Sep 2022 8:59 UTC
29 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

[Pod­cast] Rob Wiblin on self-im­prove­ment and re­search ethics

MichaelA15 Jan 2021 7:24 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readEA link
(clearerthinkingpodcast.com)

We’re re­ally bad at guess­ing the future

Benj Azose13 Aug 2022 9:11 UTC
20 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
54 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

Bi­nary pre­dic­tion database and tournament

amandango17 Nov 2020 18:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Con­clu­sion and Bibliog­ra­phy for “Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els”

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
12 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus is build­ing a team ded­i­cated to AI forecasting

christian18 Oct 2022 16:08 UTC
35 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

[Question] Is there any re­search or fore­casts of how likely AI Align­ment is go­ing to be a hard vs. easy prob­lem rel­a­tive to ca­pa­bil­ities?

Jordan Arel14 Aug 2022 15:58 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

Ozzie Gooen8 Jan 2020 22:19 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

[Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge] CEA LEEP Malawi

drwahl1 Sep 2022 5:13 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link
(danwahl.net)

David Man­heim: A Per­sonal (In­terim) COVID-19 Postmortem

Linch1 Jul 2020 6:05 UTC
32 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Biose­cu­rity Tour­na­ment Round 1 Launch

Juan Cambeiro10 Jul 2022 14:54 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Prin­ci­pled ex­trem­iz­ing of ag­gre­gated forecasts

Jaime Sevilla29 Dec 2021 18:49 UTC
46 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 17:52 UTC
12 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

AGI in sight: our look at the game board

Andrea_Miotti18 Feb 2023 22:17 UTC
25 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
103 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

In­ves­ti­gat­ing how tech­nol­ogy-fo­cused aca­demic fields be­come self-sustaining

Ben Snodin6 Sep 2021 15:04 UTC
43 points
4 comments42 min readEA link

Do­ing good while clueless

Milan_Griffes15 Feb 2018 5:04 UTC
46 points
8 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast your 2024 with Fatebook

Adam Binks5 Jan 2024 12:40 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(fatebook.io)

Some EA Fo­rum Posts I’d like to write

Linch23 Feb 2021 5:27 UTC
100 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Can/​should we au­to­mate most hu­man de­ci­sions, pre-AGI?

Ozzie Gooen26 Dec 2021 1:37 UTC
25 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

In­ter­view with Prof Tet­lock on epistemic mod­esty, pre­dict­ing catas­trophic risks, AI, and more

80000_Hours20 Nov 2017 18:34 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Is AI fore­cast­ing a waste of effort on the mar­gin?

Emrik5 Nov 2022 0:41 UTC
10 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

When re­port­ing AI timelines, be clear who you’re defer­ring to

Sam Clarke10 Oct 2022 14:24 UTC
120 points
20 comments1 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing Nu­clear Risk Through Im­proved US-China Relations

Metaculus21 Mar 2022 11:50 UTC
31 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

Value of In­fo­ma­tion, an ex­am­ple with GiveDirectly

SamNolan30 Aug 2022 20:37 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Event] A Me­tac­u­lus Open Panel Dis­cus­sion: How Fore­casts In­form COVID-19 Policy

christian4 Oct 2021 18:17 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Build­ing Blocks of Utility Maximization

NunoSempere20 Sep 2021 17:23 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Disagree­ables and Asses­sors: Two In­tel­lec­tual Archetypes

Ozzie Gooen5 Nov 2021 9:01 UTC
91 points
20 comments3 min readEA link

A prac­ti­cal guide to long-term plan­ning – and sug­ges­tions for longtermism

weeatquince10 Oct 2021 15:37 UTC
140 points
13 comments25 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
23 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell’s GiveDirectly Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

SamNolan27 May 2022 3:10 UTC
130 points
19 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the first is­sue of Asterisk

Clara Collier21 Nov 2022 18:51 UTC
275 points
47 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing of Pri­ori­ties: a tool for effec­tive poli­ti­cal par­ti­ci­pa­tion?

janklenha31 Dec 2020 15:24 UTC
27 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie Gooen4 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Ques­tions on databases of AI Risk estimates

Froolow2 Oct 2022 9:12 UTC
24 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Check­list: H5N1

DirectedEvolution5 Feb 2023 14:56 UTC
70 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is now a good time to ad­vo­cate for pre­dic­tion mar­ket gov­er­nance ex­per­i­ments in the UK?

John_Maxwell21 Oct 2022 11:51 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ing Long-Term Risks and Cli­mate Change

LuisEUrtubey19 Aug 2022 18:05 UTC
48 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

A con­cern about the “evolu­tion­ary an­chor” of Ajeya Co­tra’s re­port on AI timelines.

NunoSempere16 Aug 2022 14:44 UTC
75 points
40 comments5 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Op­por­tu­nity Costs of Tech­ni­cal Ta­lent: In­tu­ition and (Sim­ple) Implications

Ozzie Gooen19 Nov 2021 15:04 UTC
53 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments5 min readEA link

Philip Tet­lock: Fireside chat

EA Global4 Feb 2020 21:25 UTC
13 points
1 comment24 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Can You Pre­dict Who Will Win OpenPhil’s Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prize? Bet on it!

Nathan Young2 Sep 2022 0:02 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Fu­tur­ist pre­dic­tion meth­ods and accuracy

Linch15 Sep 2022 21:20 UTC
64 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(danluu.com)

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

Ajeya25 Nov 2021 16:30 UTC
18 points
6 comments69 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment to eval­u­ate the value of one re­searcher’s work

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 9:01 UTC
57 points
23 comments10 min readEA link

AI strat­egy nearcasting

Holden Karnofsky26 Aug 2022 16:25 UTC
61 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempere19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
44 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing for Good: Char­ity Pre­dic­tion Markets

Austin22 Mar 2022 17:44 UTC
42 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Epoch Im­pact Re­port 2022

Jaime Sevilla2 Feb 2023 13:09 UTC
81 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments5 min readEA link

Base Rates on United States Regime Collapse

AppliedDivinityStudies5 Apr 2021 17:14 UTC
14 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

AlexLeader1 Feb 2023 22:13 UTC
97 points
8 comments66 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An­nounc­ing the Ben­tham Prize

Pablo21 Jan 2020 22:23 UTC
33 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #3: digi­tal sen­tience, AGI ruin, and fore­cast­ing track records

Pablo4 Jul 2022 17:44 UTC
70 points
2 comments19 min readEA link

Wits & Wagers: An En­gag­ing Game for Effec­tive Altruists

JohnW1 Feb 2023 9:30 UTC
31 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC
52 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

An anal­y­sis of Me­tac­u­lus pre­dic­tions of fu­ture EA re­sources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon 22 Sep 2021 10:24 UTC
50 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Tegmark8 Oct 2022 23:25 UTC
53 points
24 comments1 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie Gooen1 Feb 2023 0:07 UTC
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

[Op­por­tu­nity] Syn­thetic Biol­ogy Fore­cast­ers

ncmoulios4 Jul 2022 16:15 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Grokking “Semi-in­for­ma­tive pri­ors over AI timelines”

anson12 Jun 2022 22:15 UTC
60 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

More Is Prob­a­bly More—Fore­cast­ing Ac­cu­racy and Num­ber of Fore­cast­ers on Metaculus

nikos31 Jan 2023 17:20 UTC
36 points
11 comments10 min readEA link

Biolog­i­cal An­chors ex­ter­nal re­view by Jen­nifer Lin (linkpost)

peterhartree30 Nov 2022 13:06 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

The Pen­tagon claims China will likely have 1,500 nu­clear war­heads by 2035

Will Aldred12 Dec 2022 18:12 UTC
34 points
3 comments2 min readEA link
(media.defense.gov)

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
121 points
7 comments23 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
33 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing tools and Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets: Why and How

brook31 Jan 2023 12:55 UTC
18 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

LW4EA: 16 types of use­ful predictions

Jeremy24 May 2022 3:19 UTC
14 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 20 Jul 2021 9:07 UTC
81 points
2 comments7 min readEA link

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: More to explore

EA Handbook1 Jan 2021 11:49 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces The Million Pre­dic­tions Hackathon

christian10 Nov 2022 20:00 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

[Question] How can good gen­er­al­ist judg­ment be differ­en­ti­ated from skill at fore­cast­ing?

Linch21 Aug 2020 23:13 UTC
25 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

EA Uni Group Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment!

avshah18 Sep 2020 16:35 UTC
62 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

How to make in­de­pen­dent re­search more fun (80k After Hours)

rgb17 Mar 2023 22:25 UTC
28 points
0 comments25 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Red-team­ing Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

Vasco Grilo🔸25 Jun 2022 14:24 UTC
58 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Nar­ra­tion: Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Re­treat, part 1

D0TheMath13 Jul 2021 16:21 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(anchor.fm)

Liter­a­ture re­view of Trans­for­ma­tive Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence timelines

Jaime Sevilla27 Jan 2023 20:36 UTC
148 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

Owen Cotton-Barratt11 Dec 2014 11:49 UTC
23 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Prob­a­bil­ity of ex­tinc­tion for var­i­ous types of catastrophes

Vasco Grilo🔸9 Oct 2022 15:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Me­tac­u­lus’s ‘Red Lines in Ukraine’ Fore­cast­ing Project

christian21 Oct 2022 22:13 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Ta­boo “Out­side View”

kokotajlod17 Jun 2021 9:39 UTC
177 points
26 comments7 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
142 points
242 comments47 min readEA link

Types of speci­fi­ca­tion prob­lems in forecasting

Juan Gil20 Jul 2021 4:17 UTC
35 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Cli­mate Tip­ping Points Tour­na­ment With The Fed­er­a­tion of Amer­i­can Scientists

christian27 Jan 2023 19:33 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Pre­dict which posts will win the Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Con­test!

Austin27 Sep 2022 22:46 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

6 Year De­crease of Me­tac­u­lus AGI Prediction

Chris Leong12 Apr 2022 5:36 UTC
40 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

A vi­sion of the fu­ture (fic­tional short-story)

EffAlt15 Oct 2022 12:38 UTC
12 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tum com­put­ing timelines

Jaime Sevilla15 Sep 2020 14:15 UTC
28 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Please Share Your Per­spec­tives on the De­gree of So­cietal Im­pact from Trans­for­ma­tive AI Outcomes

Kiliank15 Apr 2022 1:23 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of op­er­a­tions man­age­ment in high-im­pact organisations

Vasco Grilo🔸27 Nov 2022 10:33 UTC
48 points
11 comments12 min readEA link

AI X-Risk: In­te­grat­ing on the Shoulders of Giants

TD_Pilditch1 Nov 2022 16:07 UTC
34 points
0 comments47 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­glepy, a Python pack­age for Squiggle

Peter Wildeford19 Oct 2022 18:34 UTC
90 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(github.com)

[Question] Is there a good web app for do­ing the “equiv­a­lent bet test” from “How To Mea­sure Any­thing”?

nonzerosum10 Nov 2022 14:17 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
47 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
21 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

Judge­ment as a key need in EA

Benjamin_Todd12 Sep 2020 14:48 UTC
30 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Tough enough? Ro­bust satis­fic­ing as a de­ci­sion norm for long-term policy analysis

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2020 13:28 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2022

NunoSempere8 Aug 2022 8:03 UTC
30 points
0 comments15 min readEA link

Pre­fer be­liefs to cre­dence probabilities

Noah Scales1 Sep 2022 2:04 UTC
3 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
79 points
14 comments21 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Fore­casts (Open Philan­thropy)

lukeprog25 Oct 2016 10:09 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2022

NunoSempere12 Jul 2022 12:35 UTC
49 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

[Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prizes] Train­ing ex­perts to be forecasters

Sam Abbott26 Aug 2022 9:52 UTC
49 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

bgarfinkel19 Jun 2022 14:35 UTC
285 points
194 comments17 min readEA link

Free money from New York gam­bling websites

Robi Rahman24 Jan 2022 22:50 UTC
74 points
46 comments2 min readEA link

Guessti­mate: An app for mak­ing de­ci­sions with con­fi­dence (in­ter­vals)

Ozzie Gooen30 Dec 2015 17:30 UTC
63 points
18 comments2 min readEA link

Register your pre­dic­tions for 2023

Lizka26 Dec 2022 20:49 UTC
42 points
13 comments2 min readEA link

An es­ti­mate of the value of Me­tac­u­lus questions

NunoSempere22 Oct 2021 17:45 UTC
47 points
19 comments8 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Help, Please: In­te­grat­ing EA Ideas into Large Re­search Organization

Lauren Zitney30 Oct 2021 1:23 UTC
37 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

BrownHairedEevee12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
35 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

[Question] Needed: Vol­un­teer fore­cast­ers for Fish Welfare Initiative

haven21 Nov 2020 19:15 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

EA Fundrais­ing Through Ad­van­tage Sports Bet­ting: A Guide ($500/​Hour in Select States)

Sam Anschell27 Jan 2022 8:57 UTC
63 points
78 comments13 min readEA link

[Question] What pre­vi­ous work has been done on fac­tors that af­fect the pace of tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ment?

Megan Kinniment27 Apr 2021 18:43 UTC
21 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Helping fu­ture re­searchers to bet­ter un­der­stand long-term forecasting

gabriel_wagner25 Nov 2020 18:55 UTC
2 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Path­ways to im­pact for fore­cast­ing and evaluation

NunoSempere25 Nov 2021 17:59 UTC
29 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

Flag­ging up a ‘pre­dic­tion mar­ket’

Forumite12 Jul 2022 12:07 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Book Re­view: The Sig­nal and the Noise

Sam Enright18 Jul 2021 21:32 UTC
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 20:59 UTC
29 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

elifland4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
91 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
42 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2022

NunoSempere10 May 2022 16:40 UTC
44 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2022

NunoSempere3 Jun 2022 19:32 UTC
31 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
130 points
37 comments5 min readEA link

Up­dat­ing on the pas­sage of time and con­di­tional pre­dic­tion curves

Jonas Moss11 Aug 2022 18:18 UTC
37 points
6 comments12 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Get­ting GPT-3 to pre­dict Me­tac­u­lus questions

MathiasKB🔸6 May 2022 12:12 UTC
59 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Review

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:05 UTC
35 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

Top open Me­tac­u­lus forecasts

EA Handbook20 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

“Be­fore 5 Au­gust 2022, will Rus­sia deto­nate a nu­clear de­vice out­side of Rus­sian ter­ri­tory or airspace?”

LuisEUrtubey15 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Predictions

Pablo21 Nov 2020 12:02 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikos15 Apr 2022 9:53 UTC
23 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Put­ting Peo­ple First in a Cul­ture of De­hu­man­iza­tion

jhealy22 Jul 2020 3:31 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Are there su­perfore­casts for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Alex HT7 Jul 2020 7:39 UTC
24 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:03 UTC
20 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Cur­rent Es­ti­mates for Like­li­hood of X-Risk?

rhys_lindmark6 Aug 2018 18:05 UTC
24 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

An­nual AGI Bench­mark­ing Event

Metaculus26 Aug 2022 21:31 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Con­ver­sa­tion on tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing and gradualism

RobBensinger9 Dec 2021 19:00 UTC
15 points
3 comments31 min readEA link

Over­re­act­ing to cur­rent events can be very costly

Kelsey Piper4 Oct 2022 21:30 UTC
281 points
68 comments4 min readEA link

List of past fraud­sters similar to SBF

NunoSempere28 Nov 2022 18:31 UTC
114 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 16:56 UTC
31 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

Pro­posal for Fore­cast­ing Givewell-Char­ity Im­pact-Metrics

Patrick Gruban13 Apr 2022 10:21 UTC
28 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion of prob­a­bil­ities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and pub­li­ca­tions dur­ing the PhD.

PabloAMC20 Sep 2020 18:32 UTC
42 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

Ra­tional pre­dic­tions of­ten up­date pre­dictably*

Gregory Lewis15 May 2022 16:09 UTC
143 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempere5 Mar 2022 19:16 UTC
25 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches FluSight Challenge 2022/​23

christian24 Oct 2022 17:10 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

What a com­pute-cen­tric frame­work says about AI take­off speeds

Tom_Davidson23 Jan 2023 4:09 UTC
189 points
7 comments16 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

Owen Cot­ton-Bar­ratt, Robin Han­son, Ja­son Ma­theny, and Ju­lia Galef: Forecasting

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

How Can Donors In­cen­tivize Good Pre­dic­tions on Im­por­tant but Un­pop­u­lar Topics?

MichaelDickens3 Feb 2019 1:11 UTC
27 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing ex­pe­rienced lead­ers, re­searchers & op­er­a­tors for high-im­pact roles

christian10 Jul 2022 14:29 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

7 es­says on Build­ing a Bet­ter Future

Jamie_Harris24 Jun 2022 14:28 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Rus­sia-Ukraine Con­flict: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk in 2022

Metaculus24 Mar 2022 21:03 UTC
23 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

One’s Fu­ture Be­hav­ior as a Do­main of Calibration

markov_user31 Dec 2020 15:48 UTC
17 points
8 comments10 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alex lawsen (previously alexrjl)10 Nov 2020 21:40 UTC
56 points
11 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing “Cli­mate Change and the Long-term Fu­ture”

LuisEUrtubey23 Jul 2022 0:12 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

BitBets: A Sim­ple Scor­ing Sys­tem for Fore­caster Training

Hmash18 Mar 2021 11:19 UTC
28 points
5 comments9 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ing in a nutshell

lukeprog25 Feb 2021 6:11 UTC
51 points
2 comments3 min readEA link
(lukemuehlhauser.com)

Fo­rum rank­ing sys­tem pro­to­type: Cause Pri­orit­sa­tion Con­test posts ranked by pre­dic­tion markets

Nathan Young5 Sep 2022 15:55 UTC
18 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Man­i­fold for Good: Bet on the fu­ture, for charity

Austin2 May 2022 18:06 UTC
35 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

LW4EA: Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

Jeremy30 Aug 2022 15:20 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets For Credit?

DirectedEvolution5 Mar 2022 20:33 UTC
16 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

Austin9 Feb 2022 17:37 UTC
32 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

View and Bet in Man­i­fold pre­dic­tion mar­kets on EA Forum

Sinclair Chen24 May 2022 17:05 UTC
67 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Event-driven mis­sion cor­re­lated in­vest­ing and the 2020 US election

jh14 Jun 2021 15:06 UTC
48 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

An at­tempt to pro­mote pre­dic­tion markets

Timothy_Liptrot10 May 2022 14:19 UTC
7 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Pro­ject: A web plat­form for crowd­sourc­ing im­pact es­ti­mates of in­ter­ven­tions.

Max Clarke22 Apr 2022 6:54 UTC
41 points
18 comments5 min readEA link

[Fic­tion] Im­proved Gover­nance on the Crit­i­cal Path to AI Align­ment by 2045.

Jackson Wagner18 May 2022 15:50 UTC
20 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Cal­ibrate—New Chrome Ex­ten­sion for hid­ing num­bers so you can guess

ChanaMessinger7 Oct 2022 11:21 UTC
26 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempere18 Feb 2022 20:39 UTC
94 points
8 comments11 min readEA link

Open Com­mu­ni­ca­tion in the Days of Mal­i­cious On­line Actors

Ozzie Gooen6 Oct 2020 23:57 UTC
38 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

Shal­low eval­u­a­tions of longter­mist organizations

NunoSempere24 Jun 2021 15:31 UTC
192 points
34 comments34 min readEA link

Some global catas­trophic risk estimates

Tamay10 Feb 2021 19:32 UTC
106 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

Im­prove del­e­ga­tion abil­ities to­day, del­e­gate heav­ily tomorrow

Ozzie Gooen11 Nov 2021 21:52 UTC
58 points
11 comments2 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Im­pact of the First 10 EA Fo­rum Prize Winners

NunoSempere16 Mar 2021 17:11 UTC
88 points
35 comments18 min readEA link

13 Very Differ­ent Stances on AGI

Ozzie Gooen27 Dec 2021 23:30 UTC
84 points
23 comments3 min readEA link

Am­bi­tious Altru­is­tic Soft­ware Eng­ineer­ing Efforts: Op­por­tu­ni­ties and Benefits

Ozzie Gooen17 Nov 2021 18:12 UTC
109 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Do­ing Good Badly? - Michael Plant’s the­sis, Chap­ters 5,6 on Cause Pri­ori­ti­za­tion

EdoArad4 Mar 2021 16:57 UTC
75 points
16 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­ter­nal Eval­u­a­tion of the EA Wiki

NunoSempere13 Dec 2021 17:09 UTC
78 points
18 comments20 min readEA link

EA/​Ra­tion­al­ist Safety Nets: Promis­ing, but Arduous

Ozzie Gooen29 Dec 2021 18:41 UTC
69 points
36 comments4 min readEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
61 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Flimsy Pet The­o­ries, Enor­mous Initiatives

Ozzie Gooen9 Dec 2021 15:10 UTC
211 points
57 comments4 min readEA link

Valu­ing re­search works by elic­it­ing com­par­i­sons from EA researchers

NunoSempere17 Mar 2022 19:58 UTC
114 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the Value of Evaluations

Elizabeth10 Jan 2021 22:59 UTC
23 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Col­lec­tion of defi­ni­tions of “good judge­ment”

MichaelA14 Mar 2022 14:14 UTC
31 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Sim­ple com­par­i­son pol­ling to cre­ate util­ity functions

NunoSempere15 Nov 2021 19:48 UTC
46 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Can­di­dates: Jan­uary 2021–March 2022 update

Leo30 Apr 2022 17:21 UTC
122 points
18 comments19 min readEA link

Why don’t gov­ern­ments seem to mind that com­pa­nies are ex­plic­itly try­ing to make AGIs?

Ozzie Gooen23 Dec 2021 7:08 UTC
82 points
49 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:35 UTC
23 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Candidates

NunoSempere25 Dec 2020 16:34 UTC
270 points
71 comments47 min readEA link

Con­tri­bu­tion-Ad­justed Utility Max­i­miza­tion Funds: An Early Proposal

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2021 23:01 UTC
14 points
4 comments12 min readEA link

Brief eval­u­a­tions of top-10 billionnaires

NunoSempere21 Oct 2022 15:29 UTC
80 points
66 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 20:29 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC
302 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Par­ti­ci­pate in the Hy­brid Fore­cast­ing-Per­sua­sion Tour­na­ment (on X-risk top­ics)

Jhrosenberg25 Apr 2022 22:13 UTC
53 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

A Fun­nel for Cause Candidates

NunoSempere13 Jan 2021 19:45 UTC
34 points
24 comments3 min readEA link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie Gooen18 Oct 2021 22:22 UTC
88 points
34 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] What should the norms around pri­vacy and eval­u­a­tion in the EA com­mu­nity be?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
66 points
17 comments1 min readEA link

What are good rubrics or rubric el­e­ments to eval­u­ate and pre­dict im­pact?

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 21:52 UTC
24 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Fore­cast­ing Challenge

nikos17 May 2021 19:28 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolan31 Oct 2022 14:31 UTC
118 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempere12 Sep 2022 11:19 UTC
111 points
16 comments12 min readEA link

The “feel­ing of mean­ing” vs. “ob­jec­tive mean­ing”

Ozzie Gooen5 Dec 2021 1:51 UTC
21 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Suc­cess Max­i­miza­tion: An Alter­na­tive to Ex­pected Utility The­ory and a Gen­er­al­iza­tion of Max­ipok to Mo­ral Uncertainty

Mahendra Prasad26 Nov 2022 1:53 UTC
13 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

An in-progress ex­per­i­ment to test how Laplace’s rule of suc­ces­sion performs in prac­tice.

NunoSempere30 Jan 2023 17:41 UTC
57 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

2018-2019 Long-Term Fu­ture Fund Gran­tees: How did they do?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
194 points
23 comments5 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk up­date Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempere3 Oct 2022 18:10 UTC
262 points
52 comments16 min readEA link

Nu­clear Ex­pert Com­ment on Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Forecast

Jhrosenberg26 Mar 2022 9:22 UTC
129 points
13 comments16 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

elifland1 Sep 2022 18:07 UTC
353 points
51 comments26 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Effec­tive Self-Help

Ben Williamson6 Jan 2022 13:11 UTC
111 points
18 comments22 min readEA link

Ad­ding Quan­tified Uncer­tainty to GiveWell’s Cost Effec­tive­ness Anal­y­sis of the Against Malaria Foundation

Tanae31 Aug 2022 12:53 UTC
31 points
10 comments3 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
91 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Im­prov­ing Karma: $8mn of pos­si­ble value (my es­ti­mate)

Nathan Young1 Sep 2022 22:42 UTC
34 points
15 comments12 min readEA link

What is es­ti­ma­tional pro­gram­ming? Squig­gle in context

quinn12 Aug 2022 18:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

How many EA billion­aires five years from now?

Erich_Grunewald20 Aug 2022 9:57 UTC
61 points
25 comments6 min readEA link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

Joe_Carlsmith28 Apr 2021 21:41 UTC
87 points
34 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict re­sponses to the “ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” survey

RobBensinger28 May 2021 1:38 UTC
36 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Disagree­ment with bio an­chors that lead to shorter timelines

mariushobbhahn16 Nov 2022 14:40 UTC
85 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Rood­man’s Thoughts on Biolog­i­cal Anchors

lukeprog14 Sep 2022 12:23 UTC
72 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Pod­cast: Mag­nus Vind­ing on re­duc­ing suffer­ing, why AI progress is likely to be grad­ual and dis­tributed and how to rea­son about poli­tics

Gus Docker21 Nov 2021 15:29 UTC
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

Dis­cussing how to al­ign Trans­for­ma­tive AI if it’s de­vel­oped very soon

elifland28 Nov 2022 16:17 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Drivers of large lan­guage model diffu­sion: in­cre­men­tal re­search, pub­lic­ity, and cascades

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
21 points
0 comments29 min readEA link

Against the weird­ness heuris­tic

Eleni_A5 Oct 2022 14:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Ex­plo­ra­tory Sce­nario Map­ping for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion [Linkpost]

Kiliank9 May 2022 19:53 UTC
17 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

Publi­ca­tion de­ci­sions for large lan­guage mod­els, and their impacts

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
14 points
0 comments16 min readEA link

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

Jake Cannell6 Oct 2022 7:06 UTC
27 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Back­ground for “Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els”

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
12 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

kokotajlod1 Mar 2021 21:04 UTC
28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Ar­gu­ment Against Im­pact: EU Is Not an AI Su­per­power

EU AI Governance31 Jan 2022 9:48 UTC
35 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Where is a good place to start learn­ing about Fore­cast­ing?

Dvir Caspi14 Jan 2022 22:26 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
47 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Win­ners of the EA Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Contest

Lizka1 Oct 2022 1:50 UTC
226 points
41 comments19 min readEA link

What role should evolu­tion­ary analo­gies play in un­der­stand­ing AI take­off speeds?

anson11 Dec 2021 1:16 UTC
12 points
0 comments42 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
38 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Through Fiction

Yitz6 Jul 2022 5:23 UTC
8 points
3 comments6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

AGI al­ign­ment re­sults from a se­ries of al­igned ac­tions

hanadulset27 Dec 2021 19:33 UTC
15 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Phil Tram­mell on Eco­nomic Growth Un­der Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Michaël Trazzi24 Oct 2021 18:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments54 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Fi­nal Re­port of the Na­tional Se­cu­rity Com­mis­sion on Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence (NSCAI, 2021)

MichaelA1 Jun 2021 8:19 UTC
51 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(www.nscai.gov)

[linkpost] When does tech­ni­cal work to re­duce AGI con­flict make a differ­ence?: Introduction

Anthony DiGiovanni16 Sep 2022 14:35 UTC
31 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

kokotajlod20 Nov 2020 16:56 UTC
15 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Mis­sion-cor­re­lated in­vest­ing: Ex­am­ples of mis­sion hedg­ing and ‘lev­er­ag­ing’

jh11 Mar 2022 9:33 UTC
25 points
1 comment7 min readEA link

Asya Ber­gal: Rea­sons you might think hu­man-level AI is un­likely to hap­pen soon

EA Global26 Aug 2020 16:01 UTC
24 points
2 comments17 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: the “biolog­i­cal an­chors” method in a nutshell

Holden Karnofsky31 Aug 2021 18:17 UTC
50 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

Im­pli­ca­tion of AI timelines on plan­ning and solutions

JJ Hepburn21 Aug 2021 5:11 UTC
15 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: what’s the bur­den of proof?

Holden Karnofsky17 Aug 2021 17:14 UTC
71 points
17 comments16 min readEA link

[Question] What work has been done on the post-AGI dis­tri­bu­tion of wealth?

tlevin6 Jul 2022 18:59 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the Cur­rent and Fu­ture Num­ber of AI Safety Researchers

Stephen McAleese28 Sep 2022 20:58 UTC
64 points
34 comments9 min readEA link

What if we don’t need a “Hard Left Turn” to reach AGI?

Eigengender15 Jul 2022 9:49 UTC
39 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Open Philan­thropy’s AI grants

Vasco Grilo🔸30 Jul 2022 17:22 UTC
21 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

GiveWell should use shorter TAI timelines

OscarD27 Oct 2022 6:59 UTC
52 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

More Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

EliezerYudkowsky6 Dec 2021 20:34 UTC
16 points
1 comment40 min readEA link

A con­ver­sa­tion with Ro­hin Shah

AI Impacts12 Nov 2019 1:31 UTC
27 points
8 comments33 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

“Ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” sur­vey results

RobBensinger1 Jun 2021 20:19 UTC
80 points
35 comments11 min readEA link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:54 UTC
48 points
6 comments18 min readEA link

[Question] How does one find out their AGI timelines?

Yadav7 Nov 2022 22:34 UTC
19 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

‘Dis­solv­ing’ AI Risk – Pa­ram­e­ter Uncer­tainty in AI Fu­ture Forecasting

Froolow18 Oct 2022 22:54 UTC
111 points
63 comments39 min readEA link

Have your timelines changed as a re­sult of ChatGPT?

Chris Leong5 Dec 2022 15:03 UTC
30 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

New re­port on how much com­pu­ta­tional power it takes to match the hu­man brain (Open Philan­thropy)

Aaron Gertler15 Sep 2020 1:06 UTC
45 points
1 comment18 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

AI timelines and the­o­ret­i­cal un­der­stand­ing of deep learn­ing

Venky102412 Sep 2021 16:26 UTC
4 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

[Linkpost] The Prob­lem With The Cur­rent State of AGI Definitions

Yitz29 May 2022 17:01 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Fu­ture Fund Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC
−8 points
24 comments13 min readEA link

The repli­ca­tion and em­u­la­tion of GPT-3

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
14 points
0 comments33 min readEA link

Why AGI Timeline Re­search/​Dis­course Might Be Overrated

Miles_Brundage3 Jul 2022 8:04 UTC
120 points
27 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Ajeya Co­tra — se­nior re­searcher at Open Philan­thropy, and ex­pert on AI timelines and safety challenges?

Robert_Wiblin28 Oct 2022 15:28 UTC
23 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: May 2021 grant recommendations

abergal27 May 2021 6:44 UTC
110 points
17 comments58 min readEA link

“In­tro to brain-like-AGI safety” se­ries—halfway point!

Steven Byrnes9 Mar 2022 15:21 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Link post] Pa­ram­e­ter counts in Ma­chine Learning

Jaime Sevilla1 Jul 2021 15:44 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Cog­ni­tive sci­ence and failed AI fore­casts

Eleni_A18 Nov 2022 14:25 UTC
13 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els: summary

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
127 points
18 comments22 min readEA link

Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence, Mo­ral­ity, and Sen­tience (AIMS) Sur­vey: 2021

Janet Pauketat1 Jul 2022 7:47 UTC
36 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

[Question] What will be some of the most im­pact­ful ap­pli­ca­tions of ad­vanced AI in the near term?

IanDavidMoss3 Mar 2022 15:26 UTC
16 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Safety timelines: How long will it take to solve al­ign­ment?

Esben Kran19 Sep 2022 12:51 UTC
45 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

How Do AI Timelines Affect Ex­is­ten­tial Risk?

Stephen McAleese29 Aug 2022 17:10 UTC
2 points
0 comments23 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

Milan_Griffes11 Jul 2019 3:37 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What are the num­bers in mind for the su­per-short AGI timelines so many long-ter­mists are alarmed about?

Evan_Gaensbauer19 Apr 2022 21:09 UTC
41 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Link post] Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth22 Sep 2021 2:43 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Are AGI labs build­ing up im­por­tant in­tan­gibles?

Raven8 Apr 2022 18:43 UTC
9 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

EliezerYudkowsky22 Nov 2021 19:42 UTC
42 points
0 comments60 min readEA link

How im­por­tant are ac­cu­rate AI timelines for the op­ti­mal spend­ing sched­ule on AI risk in­ter­ven­tions?

Tristan Cook16 Dec 2022 16:05 UTC
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Bryan Ca­plan on open bor­ders, UBI, to­tal­i­tar­i­anism, AI, pan­demics, util­i­tar­i­anism and la­bor economics

Gus Docker22 Feb 2022 15:04 UTC
22 points
0 comments46 min readEA link
(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

Re­port on Whether AI Could Drive Ex­plo­sive Eco­nomic Growth

Tom_Davidson25 Jun 2021 23:02 UTC
63 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Speaker Event + Meetup

Group Organizer30 Jun 2022 5:57 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Chris­tian Tarsney on fu­ture bias and a pos­si­ble solu­tion to moral fanaticism

Pablo6 May 2021 10:39 UTC
26 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2020 grants and recommendations

Habryka18 Sep 2020 10:28 UTC
40 points
7 comments9 min readEA link
(app.effectivealtruism.org)

Me­tac­u­lus is hiring

aaguirre9 Dec 2020 20:58 UTC
30 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Poly­genic Selec­tion for IQ

Metaculus28 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

“Two-fac­tor” vot­ing (“two di­men­sional”: karma, agree­ment) for EA fo­rum?

david_reinstein25 Jun 2022 11:10 UTC
81 points
18 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Prac­ti­cal ethics re­quires meta­phys­i­cal Free Will

Astra Kamratowski7 Apr 2022 14:47 UTC
2 points
1 comment13 min readEA link

[Question] What’s the GiveDirectly of longter­mism & ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Nathan Young15 Nov 2021 23:55 UTC
28 points
25 comments1 min readEA link

EA In­fras­truc­ture Fund: May–Au­gust 2021 grant recommendations

Max_Daniel24 Dec 2021 10:42 UTC
85 points
19 comments19 min readEA link
(funds.effectivealtruism.org)

A quick and crude com­par­i­son of epi­demiolog­i­cal ex­pert fore­casts ver­sus Me­tac­u­lus fore­casts for COVID-19

Jotto2 Apr 2020 19:29 UTC
9 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Should you still use the ITN frame­work? [Red Team­ing Con­test]

frib14 Jul 2022 4:02 UTC
25 points
12 comments9 min readEA link

UVC air puri­fier de­sign and test­ing strategy

DirectedEvolution1 Jun 2022 5:35 UTC
27 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

“How many peo­ple might ever ex­ist, calcu­lated” by Primer [Video]

Ezra Newman16 Aug 2022 16:33 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Zachary Robin­son: Us­ing “back of the en­velope calcu­la­tions” (BOTECs) to pri­ori­tize interventions

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

A peek at pair­wise prefer­ence es­ti­ma­tion in eco­nomics, mar­ket­ing, and statistics

Jonas Moss8 Oct 2022 4:56 UTC
31 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(blog.jonasmoss.com)

[Question] Is im­prov­ing the welfare of arthro­pods and ne­ma­todes un­der­rated?

Vasco Grilo🔸8 Nov 2022 10:26 UTC
37 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Are poul­try birds re­ally im­por­tant? Yes...

Vasco Grilo🔸19 Jun 2022 18:24 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Prob­a­bil­ity es­ti­mate for wild an­i­mal welfare prioritization

Stijn23 Oct 2019 20:47 UTC
9 points
20 comments17 min readEA link

[Question] Have you ever used a Fermi calcu­la­tion to make a per­sonal ca­reer de­ci­sion?

ben.smith9 Nov 2020 9:34 UTC
6 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of donat­ing a kidney

Vasco Grilo🔸23 Apr 2022 21:50 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Open Let­ter Against Reck­less Nu­clear Es­ca­la­tion and Use

Vasco Grilo🔸3 Nov 2022 15:08 UTC
10 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(futureoflife.org)

How much dona­tions are needed to neu­tral­ise the an­nual x-risk foot­print of the mean hu­man?

Vasco Grilo🔸22 Sep 2022 6:41 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Should Effec­tive Altru­ists Fo­cus More on Move­ment Build­ing?

Aaron Bergman30 Dec 2020 3:16 UTC
20 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] What is the re­la­tion­ship be­tween im­pact and EA Fo­rum karma?

Vasco Grilo🔸6 Dec 2022 10:42 UTC
14 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

The num­ber of seabirds and sea mam­mals kil­led by marine plas­tic pol­lu­tion is quite small rel­a­tive to the catch of fish

Vasco Grilo🔸19 Apr 2022 11:22 UTC
88 points
23 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2022.

NunoSempere12 Oct 2022 16:37 UTC
23 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempere10 Jan 2022 19:34 UTC
37 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2021.

NunoSempere2 Nov 2021 14:05 UTC
15 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempere3 Feb 2022 19:10 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

[Question] What should my re­search lab fo­cus on in the first week of 2023?

Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)4 Nov 2022 10:16 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What “pivotal” and use­ful re­search … would you like to see as­sessed? (Bounty for sug­ges­tions)

david_reinstein28 Apr 2022 15:49 UTC
37 points
21 comments7 min readEA link

The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism (Tarsney, 2020)

MichaelA4 Apr 2021 3:09 UTC
79 points
27 comments1 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The Case for Strong Longtermism

Global Priorities Institute3 Sep 2019 1:17 UTC
14 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Open Philan­thropy’s AI gov­er­nance grant­mak­ing (so far)

Aaron Gertler17 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC
63 points
0 comments6 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Overview of Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ work on risks from nu­clear weapons

MichaelA10 Jun 2021 18:48 UTC
43 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing long-term treat­ment effects with­out long-term out­come data

Global Priorities Institute29 Sep 2020 13:30 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Chris­tian Tarsney: Can we pre­dictably im­prove the far fu­ture?

EA Global18 Oct 2019 7:40 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Thoughts on “A case against strong longter­mism” (Mas­rani)

MichaelA3 May 2021 14:22 UTC
39 points
33 comments2 min readEA link

Mo­gensen & MacAskill, ‘The paral­y­sis ar­gu­ment’

Pablo19 Jul 2021 14:04 UTC
15 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(quod.lib.umich.edu)

Chris­tian Tarsney on fu­ture bias and a pos­si­ble solu­tion to moral fanaticism

80000_Hours5 May 2021 19:38 UTC
7 points
0 comments114 min readEA link

A per­sonal take on longter­mist AI governance

lukeprog16 Jul 2021 22:08 UTC
173 points
6 comments7 min readEA link

Cli­mate-con­tin­gent Fi­nance, and A Gen­er­al­ized Mechanism for X-Risk Re­duc­tion Financing

johnjnay26 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC
6 points
1 comment26 min readEA link

Fore­cast Which Psy­chol­ogy Stud­ies Repli­cate With Me­tac­u­lus for the Trans­par­ent Repli­ca­tions Project

christian29 Aug 2023 20:24 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Epoch is hiring an As­so­ci­ate Data Analyst

merilalama21 Sep 2023 13:25 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

2023 Open Philan­thropy AI Wor­ld­views Con­test: Odds of Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral In­tel­li­gence by 2043

srhoades1014 Mar 2023 20:32 UTC
19 points
0 comments46 min readEA link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions: What do you want to pre­dict on AI?

Nathan Young1 Nov 2023 13:16 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

$1,000 bounty for an AI Pro­gramme Lead recommendation

Cillian_14 Aug 2023 13:11 UTC
11 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Thought ex­per­i­ment: Trad­ing off risk, in­tra­gen­er­a­tional and in­ter­gen­er­a­tional in­equal­ity, and fairness

Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)2 Sep 2023 23:32 UTC
9 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Im­mor­tal­ity or death by AGI

ImmortalityOrDeathByAGI24 Sep 2023 9:44 UTC
12 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Con­di­tional Cup to Ex­plore Linked Forecasts

christian18 Oct 2023 20:41 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Re­port on Fron­tier Model Training

YafahEdelman30 Aug 2023 20:04 UTC
19 points
1 comment21 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Su­perfore­cast­ing the premises in “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

Joe_Carlsmith18 Oct 2023 20:33 UTC
114 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus’s Cli­mate Tip­ping Points Tour­na­ment En­ters Round 2

christian16 Mar 2023 18:48 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute—Read­ing List

Frederik Berg4 Sep 2023 6:21 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Es­ti­ma­tion Is the Best We Have

Introduction9 Sep 2014 16:15 UTC
9 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

[Event] Join Me­tac­u­lus for Fore­cast Fri­day on March 24th!

christian17 Mar 2023 22:47 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.eventbrite.com)

[Question] Should Twit­ter have pre­dic­tion mar­kets in Com­mu­nity Notes?

Nathan Young20 Oct 2023 12:27 UTC
17 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Longter­mism and An­i­mal Farm­ing Trajectories

MichaelDello27 Dec 2022 0:58 UTC
51 points
8 comments17 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Red-team­ing ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI

Zed Tarar30 Nov 2023 14:35 UTC
30 points
16 comments6 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion for san­ity checks

NunoSempere21 Mar 2023 0:13 UTC
64 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Ret­ro­spec­tive Met­rics: Tools for Col­lab­o­ra­tive Truth Seeking

brook15 Aug 2023 17:07 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An Overview of the AI Safety Fund­ing Situation

Stephen McAleese12 Jul 2023 14:54 UTC
128 points
13 comments15 min readEA link

Oper­a­tions: We only have two (types of) meet­ings now.

Weaver5 Oct 2023 13:27 UTC
12 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Ques­tions about school shootings

wes R26 Nov 2023 19:15 UTC
5 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Largest AI model in 2 years from $10B

Péter Drótos24 Oct 2023 15:14 UTC
36 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Are ed­u­ca­tion in­ter­ven­tions as cost effec­tive as the top health in­ter­ven­tions? Five sep­a­rate lines of ev­i­dence for the in­come effects of bet­ter ed­u­ca­tion [Founders Pledge]

Vadim Albinsky13 Jul 2023 13:35 UTC
146 points
13 comments33 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus’s Series ‘Shared Vi­sion: Pro Fore­caster Es­says on Pre­dict­ing the Fu­ture Bet­ter’

christian13 Jul 2023 1:24 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces AI-Pow­ered Com­mu­nity In­sights to Re­veal Fac­tors Driv­ing User Forecasts

christian10 Nov 2023 17:57 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

How to save a lob­ster in 1 Hour*

wes R17 Oct 2023 23:13 UTC
1 point
3 comments1 min readEA link

Re­search Sum­mary: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Damien Laird22 Mar 2023 17:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

An ex­haus­tive list of cos­mic threats

JordanStone4 Dec 2023 17:59 UTC
74 points
19 comments6 min readEA link

The Emer­gence of Cy­borgs and the Un­rest of Tran­si­tion: An­ti­ci­pat­ing the Fu­ture of Hu­man Rights

George_A (Digital Intelligence Rights Initiative) 13 Jul 2023 17:35 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

What val­ues will con­trol the Fu­ture? Overview, con­clu­sion, and di­rec­tions for fu­ture work

Jim Buhler18 Jul 2023 16:11 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Why we may ex­pect our suc­ces­sors not to care about suffering

Jim Buhler10 Jul 2023 13:54 UTC
62 points
31 comments8 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Quar­terly Cup Tournament

christian6 Jul 2023 19:25 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Epoch is hiring an ML Hard­ware Researcher

merilalama20 Jul 2023 19:08 UTC
29 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

An EA Fairy Tale

Kat Woods17 Jul 2023 11:41 UTC
20 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI timelines?

rosehadshar21 Jul 2023 8:30 UTC
29 points
0 comments13 min readEA link

Why we should fear any bio­eng­ineered fun­gus and give fungi re­search attention

emmannaemeka18 Aug 2023 3:35 UTC
67 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

XPT fore­casts on (some) Direct Ap­proach model inputs

Forecasting Research Institute20 Aug 2023 12:39 UTC
37 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

XPT fore­casts on (some) biolog­i­cal an­chors inputs

Forecasting Research Institute24 Jul 2023 13:32 UTC
37 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

How ex­pen­sive is leav­ing your org? Squig­gle Model

jessica_mccurdy16 Aug 2023 18:01 UTC
40 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Fu­ture tech­nolog­i­cal progress does NOT cor­re­late with meth­ods that in­volve less suffering

Jim Buhler1 Aug 2023 9:30 UTC
60 points
12 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] How much might be the coun­ter­fac­tual im­pact of re­lo­ca­tion?

Péter Drótos19 Aug 2023 11:34 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readEA link

Last Chance: Get Tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Saul Munn6 Sep 2023 10:41 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Carl Shul­man on AI takeover mechanisms (& more): Part II of Dwarkesh Pa­tel in­ter­view for The Lu­nar Society

Alejandro Ortega25 Jul 2023 18:31 UTC
28 points
0 comments5 min readEA link
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

AI ro­man­tic part­ners will harm so­ciety if they go unregulated

Roman Leventov31 Jul 2023 15:55 UTC
16 points
9 comments13 min readEA link

Who’s right about in­puts to the biolog­i­cal an­chors model?

rosehadshar24 Jul 2023 14:37 UTC
69 points
12 comments5 min readEA link

II. Trig­ger­ing The Race

Maynk0224 Oct 2023 18:45 UTC
6 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

How much is re­duc­ing catas­trophic and ex­tinc­tion risk worth, as­sum­ing XPT fore­casts?

rosehadshar24 Jul 2023 15:16 UTC
51 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

Mea­sur­ing im­pact — EA bias to­wards num­bers?

Mars Robertson26 Jul 2023 16:19 UTC
−1 points
1 comment4 min readEA link
(mirror.xyz)

There is Lit­tle Ev­i­dence on Ques­tion Decomposition

niplav7 Sep 2023 18:04 UTC
32 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

As­ter­isk Magaz­ine Is­sue 03: AI

Alejandro Ortega24 Jul 2023 15:53 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(asteriskmag.com)

Solu­tions to prob­lems with Bayesianism

Bob Jacobs4 Nov 2023 12:15 UTC
27 points
2 comments21 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing what fu­ture peo­ple value: A terse in­tro­duc­tion to Ax­iolog­i­cal Futurism

Jim Buhler24 Mar 2023 19:15 UTC
62 points
10 comments3 min readEA link

What do XPT re­sults tell us about biorisk?

Forecasting Research Institute13 Sep 2023 20:05 UTC
23 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about nu­clear risk?

Forecasting Research Institute22 Aug 2023 19:09 UTC
22 points
1 comment14 min readEA link

Take­aways from the Me­tac­u­lus AI Progress Tournament

Javier Prieto27 Jul 2023 14:37 UTC
85 points
6 comments4 min readEA link

Com­par­ing Two Fore­cast­ers in an Ideal World

nikos9 Oct 2023 20:06 UTC
14 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Pro­posal: Con­nect Me­tac­u­lus to the EA Fo­rum to In­cen­tivize Bet­ter Research

Damien Laird25 Mar 2023 12:13 UTC
19 points
5 comments8 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Pro­posal + Demo: Con­nect Guessti­mate and Me­tac­u­lus and Turn them into Trees

Charlie_Guthmann25 Mar 2023 17:15 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

When Will We Spend Enough to Train Trans­for­ma­tive AI

sn28 Mar 2023 0:41 UTC
3 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

[Event] Join Me­tac­u­lus To­mor­row, March 31st, for Fore­cast Fri­day!

christian30 Mar 2023 20:58 UTC
29 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] How to per­suade a non-CS back­ground per­son to be­lieve AGI is 50% pos­si­ble in 2040?

jackchang1101 Apr 2023 15:27 UTC
1 point
7 comments1 min readEA link

L’in­quina­mento da plas­tica nei mari sem­bra uc­cidere molti meno uc­celli e mam­miferi mar­ini rispetto ai pesci pescati (es­em­pio pratico di stima di Fermi)

EA Italy31 Dec 2022 3:40 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Earth is not run­ning out of resources

Roko3 Apr 2023 10:53 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(hereticalupdate.substack.com)

Me­tac­u­lus’s Keep Virginia Safe II Tour­na­ment En­ters 2nd Round

christian4 Apr 2023 21:51 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

🔰Me­tac­u­lus Launches New Begin­ner Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment🔰

christian5 Apr 2023 20:08 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

You Can’t Prove Aliens Aren’t On Their Way To De­stroy The Earth (A Com­pre­hen­sive Take­down Of The Doomer View Of AI)

Murphy7 Apr 2023 13:37 UTC
−31 points
7 comments9 min readEA link

The New England Cot­ton­tail-re­lated con­trol­led fires

wes R19 Nov 2023 3:19 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle Hub

Ozzie Gooen5 Aug 2023 0:55 UTC
131 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

What the Mo­ral Truth might be makes no differ­ence to what will happen

Jim Buhler9 Apr 2023 17:43 UTC
40 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Who here knows?: Cryp­tog­ra­phy [An­swered]

wes R9 Sep 2023 20:30 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Shap­ley val­ues: an in­tro­duc­tory example

Stan Pinsent12 Nov 2023 13:35 UTC
15 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Open-source LLMs may prove Bostrom’s vuln­er­a­ble world hypothesis

Roope Ahvenharju14 Apr 2023 9:25 UTC
14 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[linkpost] “What Are Rea­son­able AI Fears?” by Robin Han­son, 2023-04-23

Arjun Panickssery14 Apr 2023 23:26 UTC
41 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(quillette.com)

AI Takeover Sce­nario with Scaled LLMs

simeon_c16 Apr 2023 23:28 UTC
29 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

No, the EMH does not im­ply that mar­kets have long AGI timelines

Jakob24 Apr 2023 8:27 UTC
83 points
21 comments8 min readEA link

Il su­perfore­cast­ing in breve

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 20:12 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Pre­vi­sioni aperte più popo­lari su Metaculus

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 20:15 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Le Tem­p­is­tiche delle IA: il di­bat­tito e il punto di vista degli “es­perti”

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 23:30 UTC
1 point
0 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of pre­vi­ous R&D projects

Falk Lieder24 Apr 2023 9:48 UTC
25 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Power laws in Speedrun­ning and Ma­chine Learning

Jaime Sevilla24 Apr 2023 10:06 UTC
48 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

X-Risk Re­searchers Sur­vey

NitaSangha24 Apr 2023 8:06 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

The­ory: “WAW might be of higher im­pact than x-risk pre­ven­tion based on util­i­tar­i­anism”

Jens Aslaug12 Sep 2023 13:11 UTC
51 points
20 comments17 min readEA link

A Guide to Fore­cast­ing AI Science Capabilities

Eleni_A29 Apr 2023 6:51 UTC
19 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

P(doom|AGI) is high: why the de­fault out­come of AGI is doom

Greg_Colbourn2 May 2023 10:40 UTC
13 points
28 comments3 min readEA link

Man­i­fo­lio: The tool for mak­ing Kelly op­ti­mal bets on Man­i­fold Markets

Will Howard10 Aug 2023 11:26 UTC
81 points
19 comments2 min readEA link
(manifol.io)

Me­tac­u­lus Fore­cast Fri­days: May 5th — Peter Wilde­ford on Bi­den’s 3rd Veto

christian4 May 2023 17:14 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

How to Sig­nal Com­pe­tence in Your Early-Stage Ca­reer (CCW 2023)

CE12 Sep 2023 15:49 UTC
28 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

4 things GiveDirectly got right and wrong send­ing cash to flood survivors

GiveDirectly31 Jul 2023 14:33 UTC
103 points
7 comments5 min readEA link

The Grabby Values Selec­tion Th­e­sis: What val­ues do space-far­ing civ­i­liza­tions plau­si­bly have?

Jim Buhler6 May 2023 19:28 UTC
44 points
8 comments4 min readEA link

Graph­i­cal Rep­re­sen­ta­tions of Paul Chris­ti­ano’s Doom Model

Nathan Young7 May 2023 13:03 UTC
48 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Think­ing of Con­ve­nience as an Eco­nomic Term

Ozzie Gooen5 May 2023 19:09 UTC
28 points
5 comments12 min readEA link

Fate­book for Slack: Track your fore­casts, right where your team works

Adam Binks11 May 2023 12:58 UTC
77 points
9 comments1 min readEA link
(fatebook.io)

OpenAI’s new Pre­pared­ness team is hiring

leopold26 Oct 2023 20:41 UTC
85 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Seek­ing in­put on Frame­work for Un­con­di­tional UBI Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

Michael Simm11 Dec 2023 13:13 UTC
3 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches 2023/​2024 FluSight Challenge Sup­port­ing CDC, $5K in Prizes

christian27 Sep 2023 21:35 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

A Ris­ing Tide Threat­ens Bar­ri­ers to Bioweapons

Axby14 May 2023 14:49 UTC
23 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Share Your Feed­back and Help Us Refine Me­tac­u­lus’s Scor­ing Sys­tem

christian7 Aug 2023 23:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

The Hinge of His­tory Hy­poth­e­sis: Re­ply to MacAskill (An­dreas Mo­gensen)

Global Priorities Institute8 Aug 2023 11:00 UTC
47 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Microdooms averted by work­ing on AI Safety

Nikola17 Sep 2023 21:51 UTC
39 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A model-based ap­proach to AI Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

SammyDMartin25 Aug 2023 10:44 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Quan­tified Col­lec­tive In­tel­li­gence: In­te­grat­ing Fore­cast­ing into De­ci­sion-Making

Gaia Dempsey28 Sep 2023 15:37 UTC
6 points
1 comment15 min readEA link

[Question] Is the risk of a bioweapons “warn­ing shot” >>50%?

Ulrik Horn18 Sep 2023 9:45 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Taiwan’s mil­i­tary com­pla­cency.

JKitson4 Dec 2023 9:28 UTC
32 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces Win­ners of the Alt-Protein Fore­cast­ing Tournament

christian15 Sep 2023 17:59 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

OPTIC: An­nounc­ing In­ter­col­le­giate Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ments in SF, DC, Boston

Saul Munn13 Oct 2023 1:26 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Ask­ing for on­line re­sources why AI now is near AGI

jackchang11018 May 2023 0:04 UTC
6 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

U.S. Reg­u­la­tory Up­dates to Benefit-Cost Anal­y­sis: High­lights and En­courage­ment to Sub­mit Public Comments

DannyBressler18 May 2023 6:37 UTC
79 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces Con­di­tional Con­tin­u­ous Ques­tions to Ex­plore Re­la­tion­ships Between Events

christian19 May 2023 19:24 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Re­boot­ing AI Gover­nance: An AI-Driven Ap­proach to AI Governance

Max Reddel20 May 2023 19:06 UTC
38 points
4 comments30 min readEA link

It’s Time We Pay In­ter­view-Stage Job Ap­pli­cants For Their Time

YellowChien28 Nov 2023 19:45 UTC
−6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

A pro­gres­sive AI, not a threat­en­ing one

Violette 12 Dec 2023 17:19 UTC
−17 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Be­ware of shift­ing baseline syndrome

MilleBrrrm12 Dec 2023 19:09 UTC
6 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Di­a­gram with Com­men­tary for AGI as an X-Risk

Jared Leibowich24 May 2023 22:27 UTC
20 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

Will AI end ev­ery­thing? A guide to guess­ing | EAG Bay Area 23

Katja_Grace25 May 2023 17:01 UTC
74 points
1 comment21 min readEA link

Without a tra­jec­tory change, the de­vel­op­ment of AGI is likely to go badly

Max H30 May 2023 0:21 UTC
1 point
0 comments13 min readEA link

Why It Works

wes R26 Aug 2023 5:07 UTC
2 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

How to calcu­late the ex­pected value of the best option

wes R26 Aug 2023 5:01 UTC
5 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive val­ues for an­i­mal suffer­ing and ACE Top Charities

NunoSempere30 May 2023 16:37 UTC
33 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Con­sid­er­a­tions on trans­for­ma­tive AI and ex­plo­sive growth from a semi­con­duc­tor-in­dus­try per­spec­tive

Muireall31 May 2023 1:11 UTC
23 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(muireall.space)

Global In­no­va­tion Fund pro­jects its im­pact to be 3x GiveWell Top Charities

jh1 Jun 2023 13:00 UTC
70 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­ci­sion of Sets of Forecasts

niplav19 Sep 2023 18:20 UTC
8 points
3 comments10 min readEA link

A moral back­lash against AI will prob­a­bly slow down AGI development

Geoffrey Miller31 May 2023 21:31 UTC
141 points
22 comments14 min readEA link

Prior X%—<1%: A quan­tified ‘epistemic sta­tus’ of your pre­dic­tion.

tcelferact2 Jun 2023 15:51 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

In­trin­sic limi­ta­tions of GPT-4 and other large lan­guage mod­els, and why I’m not (very) wor­ried about GPT-n

Fods123 Jun 2023 13:09 UTC
28 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

In­put sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we’re hiring!)

Forecasting Research Institute29 Sep 2023 22:26 UTC
34 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

In­cor­po­rat­ing and vi­su­al­iz­ing un­cer­tainty in cost effec­tive­ness analy­ses: A walk­through us­ing GiveWell’s es­ti­mates for StrongMinds

Jamie Elsey7 Nov 2023 12:50 UTC
69 points
6 comments16 min readEA link

Why microplas­tics should mat­ter to EAs

BiancaCojocaru4 Dec 2023 9:27 UTC
3 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Quick, High-EV Ad­van­tage Sports­bet­ting Op­por­tu­nity in 18 US States

Joseph B.4 Jun 2023 3:27 UTC
−1 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

EA Ar­chi­tect: Disser­ta­tion on Im­prov­ing the So­cial Dy­nam­ics of Con­fined Spaces & Shelters Prece­dents Report

t466 Jun 2023 11:58 UTC
42 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

The Offense-Defense Balance Rarely Changes

Maxwell Tabarrok9 Dec 2023 15:22 UTC
80 points
16 comments3 min readEA link
(maximumprogress.substack.com)

AI Safety Strat­egy—A new or­ga­ni­za­tion for bet­ter timelines

Prometheus14 Jun 2023 20:41 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

A Man­i­fold Mar­ket “Leaked” the AI Ex­tinc­tion State­ment and CAIS Wanted it Deleted

David Chee12 Jun 2023 15:57 UTC
24 points
9 comments12 min readEA link
(news.manifold.markets)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Chi­nese AI Chips Tour­na­ment, Sup­port­ing In­sti­tute for AI Policy and Strat­egy Research

christian6 Dec 2023 11:26 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Chi­nese and US Semi­con­duc­tor competition

JKitson17 Jan 2024 16:27 UTC
12 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

Ex­pert trap (Part 2 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Pawel Sysiak9 Jun 2023 22:53 UTC
3 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Miti­gat­ing Eth­i­cal Con­cerns and Risks in the US Ap­proach to Au­tonomous Weapons Sys­tems through Effec­tive Altruism

Vee11 Jun 2023 10:37 UTC
5 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Epoch and FRI Men­tor­ship Pro­gram Sum­mer 2023

merilalama13 Jun 2023 14:27 UTC
38 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

[Question] What’s the ex­act way you pre­dict prob­a­bil­ity of AI ex­tinc­tion?

jackchang11013 Jun 2023 15:11 UTC
18 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

The Long-Term Fu­ture Fund is look­ing for a full-time fund chair

Linch5 Oct 2023 1:49 UTC
101 points
21 comments8 min readEA link

Mir­ror, Mir­ror on the Wall: How Do Fore­cast­ers Fare by Their Own Call?

nikos7 Nov 2023 17:37 UTC
20 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

[Question] What’s the Limit for Cost-Effec­tive­ness?

alamo 291410 Aug 2023 23:38 UTC
4 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Sce­nario plan­ning for AI x-risk

Corin Katzke10 Feb 2024 0:07 UTC
40 points
0 comments15 min readEA link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

[Question] Is there any work on cause pri­ori­ti­za­tion that takes into ac­count timelines be­ing wor­ld­view-de­pen­dent?

Chris Leong31 Oct 2023 2:25 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Paradigms and The­ory Choice in AI: Adap­tivity, Econ­omy and Control

particlemania28 Aug 2023 22:44 UTC
3 points
0 comments16 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­sents — View From the En­ter­prise Suite: How Ap­plied AI Gover­nance Works Today

christian20 Jun 2023 22:24 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

RP’s AI Gover­nance & Strat­egy team—June 2023 in­terim overview

MichaelA22 Jun 2023 13:45 UTC
68 points
1 comment7 min readEA link

Think­ing-in-limits about TAI from the de­mand per­spec­tive. De­mand sat­u­ra­tion, re­source wars, new debt.

Ivan Madan7 Nov 2023 22:44 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

The Benev­olent Ruler’s Hand­book (Part 2): Mo­ral­ity Rules

FCCC12 Aug 2023 14:25 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Event] Me­tac­u­lus Pre­sents: Trans­for­ma­tive Science at Startup Speed

christian1 Nov 2023 3:01 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.eventbrite.com)

An­nounc­ing Man­i­fest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Manifest14 Aug 2023 11:41 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus’s New Side­bar Helps You Find Fore­casts Faster

christian8 Nov 2023 20:56 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

The Type Of An­i­mal Hus­bandry Is Rele­vant For An­i­mal Welfare

Achim17 Jun 2024 20:20 UTC
5 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Four Fu­tures For Cog­ni­tive Labor

Maxwell Tabarrok13 Jun 2024 12:58 UTC
23 points
11 comments4 min readEA link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Fate­book for Chrome: Make and em­bed fore­casts in Google Docs

Adam Binks16 Feb 2024 15:59 UTC
27 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(fatebook.io)

[Question] Is there a pub­lic tracker de­pict­ing at what dates AI has been able to au­to­mate x% of cog­ni­tive tasks (weighted by 2020 eco­nomic value)?

Mitchell Laughlin🔸17 Feb 2024 4:52 UTC
12 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the fu­ture with the power of the In­ter­net (and piss­ing off Rob Miles)

Writer15 Dec 2023 17:37 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

My ex­pe­rience at the con­tro­ver­sial Man­i­fest 2024

Maniano17 Jun 2024 18:07 UTC
49 points
244 comments6 min readEA link

China-AI fore­cast­ing

Nathan_Barnard25 Feb 2024 16:47 UTC
10 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

AI Policy In­sights from the AIMS Survey

Janet Pauketat22 Feb 2024 19:17 UTC
10 points
1 comment18 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces Bet­ter Ques­tion Discovery

christian1 Mar 2024 3:24 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An­nounc­ing The Pre­dic­tion Post

David Glidden2 Mar 2024 4:58 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(thepredictionpost.substack.com)

The World in 2029

Nathan Young2 Mar 2024 18:03 UTC
88 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the AI Fore­cast­ing Bench­mark Series | July 8, $120k in Prizes

christian19 Jun 2024 21:37 UTC
50 points
4 comments5 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

AISN #32: Mea­sur­ing and Re­duc­ing Hazardous Knowl­edge in LLMs Plus, Fore­cast­ing the Fu­ture with LLMs, and Reg­u­la­tory Markets

Center for AI Safety7 Mar 2024 16:37 UTC
15 points
2 comments8 min readEA link
(newsletter.safe.ai)

Man­i­fold mar­kets isn’t very good

Robin20 Jun 2024 11:24 UTC
11 points
32 comments5 min readEA link

Re­sults from an Ad­ver­sar­ial Col­lab­o­ra­tion on AI Risk (FRI)

Forecasting Research Institute11 Mar 2024 15:54 UTC
193 points
25 comments9 min readEA link
(forecastingresearch.org)

Probly: a Python-like lan­guage for prob­a­bil­is­tic modelling

ProbabilityEnjoyer18 Mar 2024 13:19 UTC
13 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(probly.dev)

Re­vis­it­ing the Evolu­tion An­chor in the Biolog­i­cal An­chors Re­port

Janvi18 Mar 2024 3:01 UTC
13 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Carlo: un­cer­tainty anal­y­sis in Google Sheets

ProbabilityEnjoyer18 Mar 2024 13:06 UTC
42 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(carlo.app)

Par­ti­ci­pate in Man­i­fund Micro­grants: an ACX Grants giv­ing game

Lily Jordan19 Mar 2024 18:19 UTC
26 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

China State Ship­build­ing Cor­po­ra­tion

JKitson24 Jun 2024 15:27 UTC
10 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Sce­nario Plan­ning for AI X-risk

Elliot Mckernon22 Mar 2024 11:44 UTC
14 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Vague Ver­biage in Forecasting

trevor122 Mar 2024 18:05 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(goodjudgment.com)

De­cen­tral­ized His­tor­i­cal Data Preser­va­tion and Why EA Should Care

Sasha22 Mar 2024 10:09 UTC
2 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Very Ac­cu­rate Ances­tor Si­mu­la­tion: Prac­ti­cal­ity and Ethics

Mythopoeist25 Mar 2024 9:38 UTC
0 points
1 comment13 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Ques­tion Series With Bryan Caplan

christian21 Mar 2024 19:18 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Timelines to Trans­for­ma­tive AI: an investigation

Zershaaneh Qureshi25 Mar 2024 18:11 UTC
71 points
8 comments50 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces Mul­ti­ple Choice Questions

christian20 Dec 2023 19:00 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Link Col­lec­tion: Im­pact Markets

Saul Munn26 Dec 2023 9:07 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

An up­date and per­sonal re­flec­tions about AidGrade

Eva26 Dec 2023 15:57 UTC
104 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Say how much, not more or less ver­sus some­one else

Gregory Lewis28 Dec 2023 22:24 UTC
100 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Hosts ACX 2024 Pre­dic­tion Contest

christian1 Jan 2024 16:38 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] Is Walk­ing Really Bet­ter Than Driv­ing?

wes R7 Jan 2024 2:49 UTC
−4 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Q1 2024 Quar­terly Cup for Cur­rent Events-Fo­cused, Fast-Re­solv­ing Questions

christian9 Jan 2024 4:28 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

2023: high­lights from the year, from the EA Newsletter

Lizka5 Jan 2024 21:57 UTC
68 points
2 comments33 min readEA link

Come to Man­i­fest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)

Saul Munn27 Mar 2024 21:30 UTC
15 points
8 comments4 min readEA link
(news.manifold.markets)

AI Bench­marks Series — Me­tac­u­lus Ques­tions on Eval­u­a­tions of AI Models Against Tech­ni­cal Benchmarks

christian27 Mar 2024 23:05 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­cast in the Un­der­stand­ing AI Series With Ti­mothy B. Lee

christian28 Mar 2024 22:27 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Ex­plor­ing Er­god­ic­ity in the Con­text of Longtermism

Arthur_Jongejans 29 Mar 2024 10:14 UTC
36 points
13 comments10 min readEA link

AI scal­ing myths

Nicholas Kruus27 Jun 2024 20:29 UTC
30 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(open.substack.com)

Con­tra Ace­moglu on AI

Maxwell Tabarrok28 Jun 2024 13:14 UTC
51 points
3 comments5 min readEA link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

#190 – On whether the US is con­scious (Eric Sch­witzgebel on the 80,000 Hours Pod­cast)

80000_Hours12 Jun 2024 15:14 UTC
7 points
0 comments20 min readEA link

A Re­search Agenda for Psy­chol­ogy and AI

carter allen28 Jun 2024 12:56 UTC
52 points
2 comments14 min readEA link

Illu­mi­natea—A Pro­posal for EA Reform

Leftism virtue cafe1 Apr 2024 10:51 UTC
96 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Thou­sands of mal­i­cious ac­tors on the fu­ture of AI misuse

Zershaaneh Qureshi1 Apr 2024 10:03 UTC
75 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ers: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let’s Find Out!

niplav2 Apr 2024 18:03 UTC
10 points
1 comment10 min readEA link

Fore­cast in the 2024 UBS As­set Man­age­ment In­vest­ments Re­cruit­ment Challenge on Good Judg­ment Open

Ryan Adler3 Apr 2024 20:31 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Futarchy and prefer­ences over variance

Nicholas Decker29 Jun 2024 2:36 UTC
2 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(nicholasdecker.substack.com)

Con­scious AI con­cerns all of us. [Con­scious AI & Public Per­cep­tions]

ixex3 Jul 2024 3:12 UTC
24 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

(4 min read) An in­tu­itive ex­pla­na­tion of the AI in­fluence situation

trevor113 Jan 2024 17:34 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readEA link

Con­scious AI & Public Per­cep­tion: Four futures

nicoleta-k3 Jul 2024 23:06 UTC
12 points
1 comment16 min readEA link

Con­scious AI: Will we know it when we see it? [Con­scious AI & Public Per­cep­tion]

ixex4 Jul 2024 20:30 UTC
13 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

How to re­duce risks re­lated to con­scious AI: A user guide [Con­scious AI & Public Per­cep­tion]

sableye5 Jul 2024 14:19 UTC
9 points
1 comment15 min readEA link

The case for con­scious AI: Clear­ing the record [AI Con­scious­ness & Public Per­cep­tion]

sableye5 Jul 2024 20:29 UTC
3 points
7 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] AI con­scious­ness & moral sta­tus: What do the ex­perts think?

sableye6 Jul 2024 15:27 UTC
−1 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

De­mon­strate and eval­u­ate risks from AI to so­ciety at the AI x Democ­racy re­search hackathon

Esben Kran19 Apr 2024 14:46 UTC
24 points
0 comments6 min readEA link
(www.apartresearch.com)

An AI Race With China Can Be Bet­ter Than Not Racing

niplav2 Jul 2024 17:57 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] How bad would AI progress need to be for us to think gen­eral tech­nolog­i­cal progress is also bad?

Jim Buhler6 Jul 2024 18:44 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

AI-nu­clear in­te­gra­tion: ev­i­dence of au­toma­tion bias from hu­mans and LLMs [re­search sum­mary]

taoburga27 Apr 2024 21:59 UTC
17 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

Epoch AI is Hiring an Eco­nomics of AI Researcher

merilalama3 May 2024 0:03 UTC
24 points
2 comments3 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

Fluent, Cruxy Predictions

Raemon10 Jul 2024 20:34 UTC
15 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

The Age of EM

ABishop9 May 2024 12:17 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ageofem.com)

Re­port on the De­sir­a­bil­ity of Science Given New Biotech Risks

Matt Clancy17 Jan 2024 19:42 UTC
78 points
23 comments4 min readEA link

No “Zero-Shot” Without Ex­po­nen­tial Data: Pre­train­ing Con­cept Fre­quency Deter­mines Mul­ti­modal Model Performance

Nicholas Kruus14 May 2024 23:57 UTC
36 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Digi­tal Agents: The Fu­ture of News Consumption

Tharin16 May 2024 8:12 UTC
9 points
1 comment7 min readEA link
(echoesandchimes.com)

Fore­cast­ing: the way I think about it

Molly Hickman16 May 2024 19:01 UTC
16 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Big Pic­ture AI Safety: Introduction

EuanMcLean23 May 2024 11:28 UTC
32 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

What will the first hu­man-level AI look like, and how might things go wrong?

EuanMcLean23 May 2024 11:28 UTC
12 points
1 comment15 min readEA link

What should AI safety be try­ing to achieve?

EuanMcLean23 May 2024 11:28 UTC
13 points
1 comment13 min readEA link

2024 State of AI Reg­u­la­tory Landscape

Deric Cheng28 May 2024 12:00 UTC
12 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Me­tac­u­lus World Map Experiment

Ryan Beck16 Jul 2024 18:19 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] PhDs in Data Science and Govern­men­tal Re­source Allocation

Jack Sands5 Jun 2024 0:48 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Un­der­fund­ing of break­through treat­ments for ad­dic­tion and over­dose—look­ing for help

Nicholas Reville31 Jan 2024 10:38 UTC
28 points
15 comments2 min readEA link

Do­ing a Ba­sic Life-Fo­cused Cost-Benefit Analysis

Richard Bruns26 Jan 2024 18:44 UTC
16 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

Gaia Net­work: An Illus­trated Primer

Roman Leventov26 Jan 2024 11:55 UTC
2 points
4 comments15 min readEA link

Sum­mary: Max­i­mal Clue­less­ness (An­dreas Mo­gensen)

Nicholas Kruus6 Feb 2024 14:49 UTC
28 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

UPDATE: Crit­i­cal Failures in the World Hap­piness Re­port’s Model of Na­tional Satisfaction

Alexander Loewi24 Feb 2024 4:54 UTC
120 points
26 comments2 min readEA link

xAI raises $6B

andzuck5 Jun 2024 15:26 UTC
16 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(x.ai)

OpenAI and An­thropic Donate Cred­its for AI Fore­cast­ing Bench­mark Tournament

christian17 Jul 2024 21:50 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Launch­ing the Re­s­pi­ra­tory Out­look 2024/​25 Fore­cast­ing Series

christian17 Jul 2024 19:51 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Prob­a­bil­ities, Pri­ori­ti­za­tion, and ‘Bayesian Mind­set’

Violet Hour4 Apr 2023 10:16 UTC
55 points
6 comments24 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC
31 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

$5k challenge to quan­tify the im­pact of 80,000 hours’ top ca­reer paths

NunoSempere23 Sep 2022 11:32 UTC
126 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] Is there a good web app for do­ing the “equiv­a­lent bet test” from “How To Mea­sure Any­thing”?

nonzerosum10 Nov 2022 14:17 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

A con­cern about the “evolu­tion­ary an­chor” of Ajeya Co­tra’s re­port on AI timelines.

NunoSempere16 Aug 2022 14:44 UTC
75 points
40 comments5 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Quan­tify­ing the im­pact of grant­mak­ing ca­reer paths

Joel Becker30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC
32 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

Beyond Sim­ple Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Sur­vival in a Com­plex In­ter­con­nected World

GideonF21 Nov 2022 14:35 UTC
84 points
67 comments21 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing value from pair­wise comparisons

Jonas Moss5 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(blog.jonasmoss.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

christian14 Oct 2022 17:00 UTC
65 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An­nounc­ing Squig­glepy, a Python pack­age for Squiggle

Peter Wildeford19 Oct 2022 18:34 UTC
90 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(github.com)

Su­perfore­cast­ing Long-Term Risks and Cli­mate Change

LuisEUrtubey19 Aug 2022 18:05 UTC
48 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Su­perfore­cast­ers

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 5:07 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

The col­lab­o­ra­tive ex­plo­ra­tion of al­ter­na­tive fu­tures—a free to use on­line tool

rickjdavies26 Aug 2022 14:37 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­minder: you can donate your mana to char­ity!

Austin29 Nov 2022 18:30 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2022 0:23 UTC
147 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­search Ideas

Jaime Sevilla17 Nov 2022 17:37 UTC
78 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Pre­dic­tion mar­ket does not im­ply causation

Lizka10 Oct 2022 20:37 UTC
29 points
19 comments3 min readEA link
(dynomight.net)

Us­ing Sub­jec­tive Well-Be­ing to Es­ti­mate the Mo­ral Weights of Avert­ing Deaths and Re­duc­ing Poverty

MichaelPlant3 Aug 2020 16:17 UTC
97 points
8 comments35 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempere15 Nov 2022 17:31 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

Register your pre­dic­tions for 2023

Lizka26 Dec 2022 20:49 UTC
42 points
13 comments2 min readEA link

AI X-Risk: In­te­grat­ing on the Shoulders of Giants

TD_Pilditch1 Nov 2022 16:07 UTC
34 points
0 comments47 min readEA link

Prob­a­bil­ity of ex­tinc­tion for var­i­ous types of catastrophes

Vasco Grilo🔸9 Oct 2022 15:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

The Pen­tagon claims China will likely have 1,500 nu­clear war­heads by 2035

Will Aldred12 Dec 2022 18:12 UTC
34 points
3 comments2 min readEA link
(media.defense.gov)

[Question] Is now a good time to ad­vo­cate for pre­dic­tion mar­ket gov­er­nance ex­per­i­ments in the UK?

John_Maxwell21 Oct 2022 11:51 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

When re­port­ing AI timelines, be clear who you’re defer­ring to

Sam Clarke10 Oct 2022 14:24 UTC
120 points
20 comments1 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC
46 points
8 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

COVID-19 in ru­ral Balochis­tan, Pak­istan: Two in­ter­views from May 2020

NunoSempere16 Dec 2022 11:33 UTC
22 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Track­ing the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempere9 Nov 2022 16:10 UTC
76 points
5 comments10 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Com­par­ing top fore­cast­ers and do­main experts

Gavin6 Mar 2022 20:43 UTC
205 points
40 comments3 min readEA link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
175 points
30 comments3 min readEA link

Metafore­cast late 2022 up­date: GraphQL API, Charts, bet­ter in­fras­truc­ture be­hind the scenes.

NunoSempere4 Nov 2022 17:56 UTC
39 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Guessti­mate Al­gorithm for Med­i­cal Research

Elizabeth22 Sep 2022 21:40 UTC
37 points
2 comments7 min readEA link
(acesounderglass.com)

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
88 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

[job] Me­tac­u­lus has new soft­ware roles

dschwarz7 Nov 2022 21:19 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonex­is­tence On Aver­age?

Jordan Arel8 Dec 2022 21:44 UTC
34 points
12 comments14 min readEA link

A com­mon failure for foxes

RobBensinger14 Oct 2022 22:51 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Open Phil Grants

Charles Dillon 23 Jul 2021 14:00 UTC
57 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
132 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Cal­ibrate—New Chrome Ex­ten­sion for hid­ing num­bers so you can guess

ChanaMessinger7 Oct 2022 11:21 UTC
26 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Guessti­mate: An app for mak­ing de­ci­sions with con­fi­dence (in­ter­vals)

Ozzie Gooen30 Dec 2015 17:30 UTC
63 points
18 comments2 min readEA link

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
79 points
14 comments21 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of op­er­a­tions man­age­ment in high-im­pact organisations

Vasco Grilo🔸27 Nov 2022 10:33 UTC
48 points
11 comments12 min readEA link

Pre­dict which posts will win the Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Con­test!

Austin27 Sep 2022 22:46 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

Owen Cotton-Barratt11 Dec 2014 11:49 UTC
23 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces The Million Pre­dic­tions Hackathon

christian10 Nov 2022 20:00 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

Biolog­i­cal An­chors ex­ter­nal re­view by Jen­nifer Lin (linkpost)

peterhartree30 Nov 2022 13:06 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC
52 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments5 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Fu­tur­ist pre­dic­tion meth­ods and accuracy

Linch15 Sep 2022 21:20 UTC
64 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(danluu.com)

Is AI fore­cast­ing a waste of effort on the mar­gin?

Emrik5 Nov 2022 0:41 UTC
10 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
103 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikos12 Dec 2022 10:05 UTC
74 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Bank: A way around cur­rent pre­dic­tion mar­ket reg­u­la­tions?

gvst25 Jan 2022 4:21 UTC
25 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the Aver­age Im­pact of an ARPA-E Grantmaker

charrin1 Dec 2022 6:34 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

“Tech­nolog­i­cal un­em­ploy­ment” AI vs. “most im­por­tant cen­tury” AI: how far apart?

Holden Karnofsky11 Oct 2022 4:50 UTC
17 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Begin­ner Tour­na­ment for New Forecasters

Anastasia6 Jan 2023 2:35 UTC
33 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

En­ter Scott Alexan­der’s Pre­dic­tion Competition

ChanaMessinger5 Jan 2023 20:52 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Year in Re­view: 2022

christian6 Jan 2023 1:23 UTC
25 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 16:36 UTC
32 points
1 comment15 min readEA link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – mod­els of im­pact and challenges

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 18:16 UTC
60 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Is any­one else also get­ting more wor­ried about hard take­off AGI sce­nar­ios?

JonCefalu9 Jan 2023 6:04 UTC
19 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

basil.halperin10 Jan 2023 16:04 UTC
18 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

[Ru­mour] Microsoft to in­vest $10B in OpenAI, will re­ceive 75% of prof­its un­til they re­coup in­vest­ment: GPT would be in­te­grated with Office

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆10 Jan 2023 23:43 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing could use more gen­der diversity

Tegan13 Jan 2023 19:27 UTC
137 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Prac­tic­ing my Hand­writ­ing in 1439

Maxwell Tabarrok3 Feb 2024 13:22 UTC
19 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

[Question] Should we have Me­tac­u­lus ques­tions for when each ma­jor EA or­ga­ni­za­tion dis­solves and if so, how should they be worded?

ChristianKleineidam20 Jan 2023 20:45 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

What a com­pute-cen­tric frame­work says about AI take­off speeds

Tom_Davidson23 Jan 2023 4:09 UTC
189 points
7 comments16 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Cli­mate Tip­ping Points Tour­na­ment With The Fed­er­a­tion of Amer­i­can Scientists

christian27 Jan 2023 19:33 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Liter­a­ture re­view of Trans­for­ma­tive Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence timelines

Jaime Sevilla27 Jan 2023 20:36 UTC
148 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

How to make in­de­pen­dent re­search more fun (80k After Hours)

rgb17 Mar 2023 22:25 UTC
28 points
0 comments25 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Fore­cast­ing tools and Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets: Why and How

brook31 Jan 2023 12:55 UTC
18 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

More Is Prob­a­bly More—Fore­cast­ing Ac­cu­racy and Num­ber of Fore­cast­ers on Metaculus

nikos31 Jan 2023 17:20 UTC
36 points
11 comments10 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie Gooen1 Feb 2023 0:07 UTC
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Wits & Wagers: An En­gag­ing Game for Effec­tive Altruists

JohnW1 Feb 2023 9:30 UTC
31 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

AlexLeader1 Feb 2023 22:13 UTC
97 points
8 comments66 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Epoch Im­pact Re­port 2022

Jaime Sevilla2 Feb 2023 13:09 UTC
81 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Check­list: H5N1

DirectedEvolution5 Feb 2023 14:56 UTC
70 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast your 2024 with Fatebook

Adam Binks5 Jan 2024 12:40 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(fatebook.io)

AGI in sight: our look at the game board

Andrea_Miotti18 Feb 2023 22:17 UTC
25 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

Murray15 Feb 2023 14:26 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Con­fido 2.0: Pro­mot­ing the un­cer­tainty-aware mind­set in orgs

Blanka10 Jan 2024 11:45 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets Char­ity pro­gram end­ing March 1st

Pat Myron18 Feb 2023 2:12 UTC
28 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(manifoldmarkets.notion.site)

Man­i­fund Im­pact Mar­ket /​ Mini-Grants Round On Forecasting

Scott Alexander24 Feb 2023 6:14 UTC
59 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Question] Can we es­ti­mate the ex­pected value of hu­man’s fu­ture life(in 500 years)

jackchang11025 Feb 2023 15:13 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Com­pe­ti­tion for “For­tified Es­says” on nu­clear risk

MichaelA17 Nov 2021 20:55 UTC
35 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Launch­ing the INFER Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment for EA uni groups

hannah31 Mar 2022 6:25 UTC
46 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Some his­tory top­ics it might be very valuable to investigate

MichaelA8 Jul 2020 2:40 UTC
91 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA16 Jun 2021 16:12 UTC
38 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

The chance of ac­ci­den­tal nu­clear war has been go­ing down

Peter Wildeford31 May 2022 14:48 UTC
66 points
5 comments1 min readEA link
(www.pasteurscube.com)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Scor­ing fore­casts from the 2016 “Ex­pert Sur­vey on Progress in AI”

PatrickL1 Mar 2023 14:39 UTC
204 points
21 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:35 UTC
22 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Pre­dic­tive Perfor­mance on Me­tac­u­lus vs. Man­i­fold Markets

nikos3 Mar 2023 19:39 UTC
111 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of try­ing some­thing new

Falk Lieder3 Apr 2023 12:29 UTC
46 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of de­ploy­ing a new intervention

Falk Lieder10 Apr 2023 9:07 UTC
26 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

How much can we learn from other peo­ple’s guesses?

David Johnston8 Mar 2023 3:29 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

We can’t put num­bers on ev­ery­thing and try­ing to weak­ens our col­lec­tive epistemics

ConcernedEAs8 Mar 2023 15:09 UTC
9 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Every­thing’s nor­mal un­til it’s not

Eleni_A10 Mar 2023 1:42 UTC
6 points
0