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Fore­cast­ing & estimation

Core TagLast edit: 17 Mar 2023 14:35 UTC by Sarah Cheng

Forecasting and estimation are important tools for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be an area of investment for improving our ability to make good decisions.

The State of Forecasting within EA

There are some major branches of forecasting within the EA movement:

These areas in more depth

Institutional forecasting.

Forecasting in institutions can range from predicting broad metrics to specific outcomes based on specific decisions. There can often be problems with buy-in from key stakeholders, who either see this as an unnecessary step or are concerned for their own status.

Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is hard but many top forecasters use common techniques. This suggests that forecasting is a skill that can be learnt and practised.

Base rates

Reference Class Forecasting on Wikipedia

Suppose we are trying to find the probability that an event will occur within the next 5 years. One good place to start is by asking “of all similar time periods, what fraction of the time does this event occur?”. This is the base rate.

If we want to know the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov. 1st, 2024, we could ask

These are all examples of using base rates. [These examples are taken from Base Rates and Reference Classes by jsteinhardt.]

Base rates represent the outside view for a given question. They are a good place to start but can often be improved on by updating the probability according to an inside view.

Note that there are often several reference classes we could use, each implying a different base rate. The problem of deciding which class to use is known as the reference class problem.

Calibration training

A forecaster is said to be calibrated if the events they say have a X% chance of happening, happen X% of the time.

Most people are overconfident. When they say an event has a 99% chance of happening, often the events happen much less frequently than that.

This natural overconfidence can be corrected with calibration training. In calibration training, you are asked to answer a set of factual questions, assigning a probability to each of your answers.

A list of calibration training exercises can be found here.

Question decomposition

Much like Fermi estimation, questions about future events can often be decomposed into many different questions, these questions can be answered, and the answers to these questions can be used to reconstruct an answer to the original question.

Suppose you are interested in whether AI will cause a catastrophe by 2100. For AI to cause such an event, several things need to be true: (1) it needs to be possible to build advanced AI with agentic planning and strategic awareness by 2100, (2) there need to be strong incentives to apply such a system, (3) it needs to be difficult to align such a system should it be deployed, (4) a deployed and unaligned AI would act in unintended and high-impact power seeking ways causing trillions of dollars in damage, (5) of these consequences will result in the permanent disempowerment of all humanity and (6) this disempowerment will constitute an existential catastrophe. Taking the probabilities that Eli Lifland assigned to each question gives a 80%, 85%, 75%, 90%, 80% and 95% chance of events 1 through 6 respectively. Since each event is conditional on the ones before it, we can find the probability of the original question by multiplying all the probabilities together. This gives Eli Lifland a probability of existential risk from misaligned AI before 2100 to be approximately 35%. For more detail see Eli’s original post here.

Decomposing questions into their constituent parts, assigning probabilities to these sub-questions, and combining these probabilities to answer the original questions is believed to improve forecasts. This is because, while each forecast is noisy, combining the estimates from many questions cancels the noise and leaves us with the signal.

Question decomposition is also good at increasing epistemic legibility. It helps forecasters to communicate to others why they’ve made the forecast that they did and it allows them to identify their specific points of disagreement.

Premortems

Premortems on Wikipedia

A premortem is a strategy used once you’ve assigned a probability to an event. You ask yourself to imagine that the forecast was wrong and you then work backwards to determine what could potentially have caused this.

It is simply a way to reframe the question “in what ways might I be wrong?” but in a way that reduces motivated reasoning caused by attachment to the bottom line.

Practice

Getting Started on the Forecasting Wiki

While the above techniques are useful, they are no substitute for actually making predictions. Get out there and make predictions! Use the above techniques. Keep track of your predictions. Periodically evaluate questions that have been resolved and review your performance. Assess the degree to which you are calibrated. Look out for systematic mistakes that you might be making. Make more predictions! Over time, like with any skill, your ability can and should improve.

Other Resources

Other resources include:

State of the Art

For many years there have been calls to apply forecasting techniques to non-academic domains including journalism, policy, investing and business strategy. Several organisations now exist within these niche.

Metaculus

Metaculus is a popular and established web platform for forecasting. Their questions mainly focus on geopolitics, the coronavirus pandemic and topics of interest to Effective Altruism.

They host prediction competitions with real money prizes and collect and track public predictions made by various figures.

Cultivate Labs

Cultivate Labs build tools that companies can use to crowdsource information from among their employees. This helps leadership to understand the consensus of people working on the ground and use this to improve the decisions they make.

Kalshi

Kalshi provide real money prediction markets on geopolitical events. The financial options they provide are intended to be used as hedges for political risk.

Manifold.Markets

Manifold.Markets is a prediction market platform that uses play money. It is noteworthy for its ease of use, great UI and the fact that the market creator decides how the market resolves.

QURI

QURI is a research organisation that builds tools that make it easier to make good forecasts. Their most notable tool is Squiggle—a programming language designed to be used to make legible forecasts in a wide range of contexts.

This is a broad topic group that captures several sub-topics:

Two di­rec­tions for re­search on fore­cast­ing and de­ci­sion making

Paal Fredrik Skjørten Kvarberg11 Mar 2023 15:33 UTC
44 points
5 comments21 min readEA link

Squig­gle: Why and how to use it

brook30 Jan 2023 14:14 UTC
44 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Win­ners of the Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion and 80,000 Hours Quan­tifi­ca­tion Challenges

NunoSempere8 Mar 2023 1:03 UTC
62 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app

Sage20 Feb 2023 11:22 UTC
69 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Ex­plor­ing Me­tac­u­lus’ com­mu­nity predictions

Vasco Grilo24 Mar 2023 7:59 UTC
81 points
11 comments10 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces New ‘Con­di­tional Pair’ Fore­cast Ques­tions for Mak­ing Con­di­tional Predictions

christian20 Feb 2023 13:36 UTC
60 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjustice20 Mar 2023 4:03 UTC
36 points
1 comment27 min readEA link
(samotsvety.org)

Guessti­mate: Why and how to use it

brook24 Jan 2023 14:16 UTC
19 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

AI timelines by bio an­chors: the de­bate in one place

Will Aldred30 Jul 2022 23:04 UTC
84 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing in the Czech pub­lic ad­minis­tra­tion—pre­limi­nary findings

janklenha16 Mar 2023 14:47 UTC
40 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 16:29 UTC
41 points
4 comments10 min readEA link

Up­date to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Misha_Yagudin24 Jan 2023 4:27 UTC
111 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

Some more pro­jects I’d like to see

finm25 Feb 2023 22:22 UTC
65 points
10 comments24 min readEA link
(finmoorhouse.com)

Why I think it’s im­por­tant to work on AI forecasting

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2023 21:24 UTC
175 points
10 comments10 min readEA link

Guessti­mate: Why and How to Use It

brook23 Jan 2023 19:37 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing In­tro­duc­tions for Col­lab­o­ra­tive Truth Seek­ing Tools

brook23 Jan 2023 16:04 UTC
81 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC
413 points
115 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

aaron_mai16 Jan 2023 11:35 UTC
22 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

Sur­vey on in­ter­me­di­ate goals in AI governance

MichaelA17 Mar 2023 12:44 UTC
141 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

En­trepreneur­ship ETG Might Be Bet­ter Than 80k Thought

Ben_West29 Dec 2022 17:51 UTC
132 points
33 comments5 min readEA link

How would you es­ti­mate the value of de­lay­ing AGI by 1 day, in marginal GiveWell dona­tions?

AnonymousAccount16 Dec 2022 9:25 UTC
28 points
19 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Novem­ber and De­cem­ber 2022

NunoSempere9 Jan 2023 11:16 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

Un­jour­nal Evals: “Ad­vance Mar­ket Com­mit­ments: In­sights from The­ory and Ex­pe­rience”

david_reinstein21 Mar 2023 16:59 UTC
22 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(unjournal.pubpub.org)

Fore­cast­ing ex­treme outcomes

AidanGoth9 Jan 2023 15:02 UTC
45 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Fo­rum is mostly metaphorical

NunoSempere7 Mar 2023 23:33 UTC
7 points
12 comments1 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

vaniver2 Jan 2023 17:55 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing a sub­fo­rum for fore­cast­ing & estimation

Sharang Phadke26 Dec 2022 20:51 UTC
72 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

14 Ways ML Could Im­prove In­for­ma­tive Video

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

An­nounc­ing the Open Philan­thropy AI Wor­ld­views Contest

Jason Schukraft10 Mar 2023 2:33 UTC
137 points
16 comments3 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

When you plan ac­cord­ing to your AI timelines, should you put more weight on the me­dian fu­ture, or the me­dian fu­ture | even­tual AI al­ign­ment suc­cess? ⚖️

Jeffrey Ladish5 Jan 2023 1:55 UTC
16 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing timelines

Zach Stein-Perlman10 Mar 2023 17:30 UTC
30 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Un­jour­nal: Eval­u­a­tions of “Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence and Eco­nomic Growth”, and new host­ing space

david_reinstein17 Mar 2023 20:20 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(unjournal.pubpub.org)

How bad a fu­ture do ML re­searchers ex­pect?

Katja_Grace13 Mar 2023 5:47 UTC
162 points
20 comments1 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Scott Alexan­der re­acts to OpenAI’s lat­est post

Akash11 Mar 2023 22:24 UTC
105 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Re­search In­sti­tute (we’re hiring)

Tegan13 Dec 2022 12:11 UTC
167 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Trends in the dol­lar train­ing cost of ma­chine learn­ing systems

Ben Cottier1 Feb 2023 14:48 UTC
58 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Model-Based Policy Anal­y­sis un­der Deep Uncertainty

Max Reddel6 Mar 2023 14:24 UTC
81 points
31 comments21 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #8: Bing Chat, AI labs on safety, and paus­ing Fu­ture Matters

Pablo21 Mar 2023 14:50 UTC
81 points
2 comments24 min readEA link

YCom­bi­na­tor fraud rates

Ben_West25 Dec 2022 18:01 UTC
90 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

Anki with Uncer­tainty: Turn any flash­card deck into a cal­ibra­tion train­ing tool

Sage22 Mar 2023 17:26 UTC
48 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.quantifiedintuitions.org)

What are peo­ple up to in the world?

Tristan Williams13 Jan 2023 23:25 UTC
30 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] Have you tried to bring fore­cast­ing tech­niques to your com­pany? How did it work out?

BrownHairedEevee5 Feb 2023 0:42 UTC
24 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris Leong24 Mar 2023 19:43 UTC
27 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

How many peo­ple are work­ing (di­rectly) on re­duc­ing ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI?

Benjamin Hilton17 Jan 2023 14:03 UTC
117 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

How evals might (or might not) pre­vent catas­trophic risks from AI

Akash7 Feb 2023 20:16 UTC
28 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some es­ti­ma­tion work in the horizon

NunoSempere29 Mar 2023 22:18 UTC
19 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Un­jour­nal’s 1st eval is up: Re­silient foods pa­per (Denken­berger et al) & AMA ~48 hours

david_reinstein6 Feb 2023 19:18 UTC
77 points
10 comments3 min readEA link
(sciety.org)

[Our World in Data] AI timelines: What do ex­perts in ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence ex­pect for the fu­ture? (Roser, 2023)

Will Aldred7 Feb 2023 14:52 UTC
88 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(ourworldindata.org)

Defer­ence on AI timelines: sur­vey results

Sam Clarke30 Mar 2023 23:03 UTC
13 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

EA could use bet­ter in­ter­nal com­mu­ni­ca­tions infrastructure

Ozzie Gooen12 Jan 2023 1:07 UTC
63 points
11 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Straight­for­wardly elic­it­ing prob­a­bil­ities from GPT-3

NunoSempere9 Feb 2023 19:25 UTC
38 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Why does Academia+EA pro­duce so few on­line videos?

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:49 UTC
20 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ments that could in­crease risks from nu­clear weapons: A shal­low review

MichaelA9 Feb 2023 15:41 UTC
78 points
3 comments5 min readEA link
(bit.ly)

An­nounc­ing the SPT Model Web App for AI Governance

Paolo Bova4 Aug 2022 10:45 UTC
36 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav27 May 2022 19:08 UTC
21 points
3 comments43 min readEA link

Suggested fore­cast­ing wiki text addition

Nathan Young29 Dec 2022 11:55 UTC
5 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

Misha Yagudin and Ozzie Gooen Dis­cuss LLMs and Effec­tive Altruism

Ozzie Gooen6 Jan 2023 22:59 UTC
45 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Who is Un­com­fortable Cri­tiquing Who, Around EA?

Ozzie Gooen24 Feb 2023 5:55 UTC
144 points
15 comments11 min readEA link

Re­place­ment for PONR concept

kokotajlod2 Sep 2022 0:38 UTC
14 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – mod­els of im­pact and challenges

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 18:16 UTC
60 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Is any­one else also get­ting more wor­ried about hard take­off AGI sce­nar­ios?

JonCefalu9 Jan 2023 6:04 UTC
19 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

basil.halperin10 Jan 2023 16:04 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

basil.halperin10 Jan 2023 16:05 UTC
319 points
172 comments26 min readEA link

[Ru­mour] Microsoft to in­vest $10B in OpenAI, will re­ceive 75% of prof­its un­til they re­coup in­vest­ment: GPT would be in­te­grated with Office

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆10 Jan 2023 23:43 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing could use more gen­der diversity

Tegan13 Jan 2023 19:27 UTC
130 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Should we have Me­tac­u­lus ques­tions for when each ma­jor EA or­ga­ni­za­tion dis­solves and if so, how should they be worded?

ChristianKleineidam20 Jan 2023 20:45 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

What a com­pute-cen­tric frame­work says about AI take­off speeds—draft report

Tom_Davidson23 Jan 2023 4:09 UTC
185 points
5 comments16 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Cli­mate Tip­ping Points Tour­na­ment With The Fed­er­a­tion of Amer­i­can Scientists

christian27 Jan 2023 19:33 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­cast­ing in Poli­cy­mak­ing: Four Models

Sophia Brown30 Jan 2023 16:40 UTC
48 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Liter­a­ture re­view of Trans­for­ma­tive Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence timelines

Jaime Sevilla27 Jan 2023 20:36 UTC
148 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

How to make in­de­pen­dent re­search more fun (80k After Hours)

rgb17 Mar 2023 22:25 UTC
24 points
0 comments25 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Fore­cast­ing tools and Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets: Why and How

brook31 Jan 2023 12:55 UTC
16 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

More Is Prob­a­bly More—Fore­cast­ing Ac­cu­racy and Num­ber of Fore­cast­ers on Metaculus

nikos31 Jan 2023 17:20 UTC
34 points
11 comments10 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie Gooen1 Feb 2023 0:07 UTC
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Wits & Wagers: An En­gag­ing Game for Effec­tive Altruists

JohnW1 Feb 2023 9:30 UTC
30 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

AlexLeader1 Feb 2023 22:13 UTC
97 points
8 comments66 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Epoch Im­pact Re­port 2022

Jaime Sevilla2 Feb 2023 13:09 UTC
81 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

[Question] Is this a way to ma­nipu­late pre­dic­tion mar­kets?

Bob Jacobs3 Feb 2023 14:07 UTC
7 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Check­list: H5N1

DirectedEvolution5 Feb 2023 14:56 UTC
69 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

AGI in sight: our look at the game board

Andrea_Miotti18 Feb 2023 22:17 UTC
30 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

Murray15 Feb 2023 14:26 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets Char­ity pro­gram end­ing March 1st

Pat Myron18 Feb 2023 2:12 UTC
28 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(manifoldmarkets.notion.site)

What is Differ­en­tial Tech­nolog­i­cal Devel­op­ment?

aj22 Feb 2023 21:50 UTC
14 points
0 comments13 min readEA link
(www.ajkourabi.com)

Man­i­fund Im­pact Mar­ket /​ Mini-Grants Round On Forecasting

Scott Alexander24 Feb 2023 6:14 UTC
56 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Question] Can we es­ti­mate the ex­pected value of hu­man’s fu­ture life(in 500 years)

jackchang11025 Feb 2023 15:13 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Com­pe­ti­tion for “For­tified Es­says” on nu­clear risk

MichaelA17 Nov 2021 20:55 UTC
35 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Launch­ing the INFER Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment for EA uni groups

hannah31 Mar 2022 6:25 UTC
46 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Some his­tory top­ics it might be very valuable to investigate

MichaelA8 Jul 2020 2:40 UTC
89 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA16 Jun 2021 16:12 UTC
38 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

The chance of ac­ci­den­tal nu­clear war has been go­ing down

Peter Wildeford31 May 2022 14:48 UTC
66 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(www.pasteurscube.com)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Scor­ing fore­casts from the 2016 “Ex­pert Sur­vey on Progress in AI”

PatrickL1 Mar 2023 14:39 UTC
202 points
21 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:35 UTC
22 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Pre­dic­tive Perfor­mance on Me­tac­u­lus vs. Man­i­fold Markets

nikos3 Mar 2023 19:39 UTC
110 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

How much can we learn from other peo­ple’s guesses?

David Johnston8 Mar 2023 3:29 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

We can’t put num­bers on ev­ery­thing and try­ing to weak­ens our col­lec­tive epistemics

ConcernedEAs8 Mar 2023 15:09 UTC
7 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Every­thing’s nor­mal un­til it’s not

Eleni_A10 Mar 2023 1:42 UTC
6 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

An­thropic: Core Views on AI Safety: When, Why, What, and How

jonmenaster9 Mar 2023 17:30 UTC
102 points
6 comments22 min readEA link
(www.anthropic.com)

Re­search Sum­mary: Pre­dic­tion Polling

Damien Laird13 Mar 2023 18:31 UTC
7 points
0 comments10 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Will Givewell recom­mend breast­feed­ing pro­mo­tion be­fore 2027 [fore­cast] [cross­post]

Nathan Young9 Nov 2021 22:58 UTC
20 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

I’m Linch Zhang, an am­a­teur COVID-19 fore­caster and gen­er­al­ist EA. AMA

Linch30 Jun 2020 19:35 UTC
77 points
80 comments1 min readEA link

In­tel­li­gence failures and a the­ory of change for fore­cast­ing

Nathan_Barnard31 Aug 2022 2:05 UTC
12 points
1 comment10 min readEA link

My cur­rent best guess on how to ag­gre­gate forecasts

Jaime Sevilla6 Oct 2021 8:33 UTC
35 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

PSA: if you are in Rus­sia, prob­a­bly move out ASAP

anon_acct3 Mar 2022 21:55 UTC
143 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Sum­mary of ‘Shar­ing the World With Digi­tal Minds’ by Carl Shul­man and Nick Bostrom

Dr. David Mathers7 Oct 2022 13:36 UTC
33 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

We can do bet­ter than argmax

Jan_Kulveit10 Oct 2022 10:32 UTC
113 points
37 comments10 min readEA link

Ex­per­i­men­tal longter­mism: the­ory needs data

Jan_Kulveit15 Mar 2022 10:05 UTC
184 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

Holden Karnofsky4 Jul 2022 15:47 UTC
67 points
2 comments11 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

What I learned from the crit­i­cism contest

Gavin1 Oct 2022 13:39 UTC
168 points
33 comments5 min readEA link

Ques­tions about and Ob­jec­tions to ‘Shar­ing the World with Digi­tal Minds’ (2020)

Dr. David Mathers7 Oct 2022 13:36 UTC
34 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Czech fore­cast­ing pro­ject: Summary

janklenha13 May 2022 22:10 UTC
29 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

[Question] Does any EA org try do a wholis­tic pre­dic­tion of global trends 20 years out?

ekka4 Jul 2022 3:36 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are Some­what Over­rated Within EA

Francis1 Sep 2022 2:17 UTC
16 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Is­sues with Futarchy

Lizka7 Oct 2021 17:24 UTC
60 points
8 comments25 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets in The Cor­po­rate Setting

NunoSempere31 Dec 2021 17:10 UTC
81 points
14 comments33 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Through Fiction

Yitz6 Jul 2022 5:23 UTC
8 points
3 comments6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Par­ti­ci­pate in the Hy­brid Fore­cast­ing-Per­sua­sion Tour­na­ment (on X-risk top­ics)

Jhrosenberg25 Apr 2022 22:13 UTC
52 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Col­lec­tion of defi­ni­tions of “good judge­ment”

MichaelA14 Mar 2022 14:14 UTC
31 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Review

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:05 UTC
35 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] Needed: Vol­un­teer fore­cast­ers for Fish Welfare Initiative

haven21 Nov 2020 19:15 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Help, Please: In­te­grat­ing EA Ideas into Large Re­search Organization

Lauren Zitney30 Oct 2021 1:23 UTC
37 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

Free money from New York gam­bling websites

Robi Rahman24 Jan 2022 22:50 UTC
73 points
45 comments2 min readEA link

[Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prizes] Train­ing ex­perts to be forecasters

Sam Abbott26 Aug 2022 9:52 UTC
49 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2022

NunoSempere12 Jul 2022 12:35 UTC
49 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Fore­casts (Open Philan­thropy)

lukeprog25 Oct 2016 10:09 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Pre­fer be­liefs to cre­dence probabilities

Noah Scales1 Sep 2022 2:04 UTC
3 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Tough enough? Ro­bust satis­fic­ing as a de­ci­sion norm for long-term policy analysis

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2020 13:28 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Judge­ment as a key need in EA

Benjamin_Todd12 Sep 2020 14:48 UTC
30 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
47 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

A vi­sion of the fu­ture (fic­tional short-story)

EffAlt15 Oct 2022 12:38 UTC
12 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Types of speci­fi­ca­tion prob­lems in forecasting

Juan Gil20 Jul 2021 4:17 UTC
35 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
142 points
242 comments47 min readEA link

Ta­boo “Out­side View”

kokotajlod17 Jun 2021 9:39 UTC
176 points
26 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Me­tac­u­lus’s ‘Red Lines in Ukraine’ Fore­cast­ing Project

christian21 Oct 2022 22:13 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Nar­ra­tion: Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Re­treat, part 1

D0TheMath13 Jul 2021 16:21 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(anchor.fm)

Red-team­ing Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

Vasco Grilo25 Jun 2022 14:24 UTC
57 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

EA Uni Group Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment!

avshah18 Sep 2020 16:35 UTC
62 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How can good gen­er­al­ist judg­ment be differ­en­ti­ated from skill at fore­cast­ing?

Linch21 Aug 2020 23:13 UTC
25 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: More to explore

EA Handbook1 Jan 2021 11:49 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

LW4EA: 16 types of use­ful predictions

Jeremy24 May 2022 3:19 UTC
14 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
33 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
118 points
7 comments23 min readEA link

Grokking “Semi-in­for­ma­tive pri­ors over AI timelines”

anson12 Jun 2022 22:15 UTC
60 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

[Op­por­tu­nity] Syn­thetic Biol­ogy Fore­cast­ers

ncmoulios4 Jul 2022 16:15 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Tegmark8 Oct 2022 23:25 UTC
50 points
24 comments1 min readEA link

An anal­y­sis of Me­tac­u­lus pre­dic­tions of fu­ture EA re­sources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon 22 Sep 2021 10:24 UTC
50 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #3: digi­tal sen­tience, AGI ruin, and fore­cast­ing track records

Pablo4 Jul 2022 17:44 UTC
70 points
2 comments19 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Ben­tham Prize

Pablo21 Jan 2020 22:23 UTC
33 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Base Rates on United States Regime Collapse

AppliedDivinityStudies5 Apr 2021 17:14 UTC
14 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempere19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
44 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

AI strat­egy nearcasting

Holden Karnofsky26 Aug 2022 16:25 UTC
61 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

Ajeya25 Nov 2021 16:30 UTC
18 points
6 comments69 min readEA link

Can You Pre­dict Who Will Win OpenPhil’s Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prize? Bet on it!

Nathan Young2 Sep 2022 0:02 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Philip Tet­lock: Fireside chat

EA Global4 Feb 2020 21:25 UTC
13 points
1 comment24 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] Ques­tions on databases of AI Risk estimates

Froolow2 Oct 2022 9:12 UTC
24 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing of Pri­ori­ties: a tool for effec­tive poli­ti­cal par­ti­ci­pa­tion?

janklenha31 Dec 2020 15:24 UTC
27 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the first is­sue of Asterisk

Clara Collier21 Nov 2022 18:51 UTC
275 points
47 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
23 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

A prac­ti­cal guide to long-term plan­ning – and sug­ges­tions for longtermism

weeatquince10 Oct 2021 15:37 UTC
131 points
13 comments25 min readEA link

[Event] A Me­tac­u­lus Open Panel Dis­cus­sion: How Fore­casts In­form COVID-19 Policy

christian4 Oct 2021 18:17 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing Nu­clear Risk Through Im­proved US-China Relations

Metaculus21 Mar 2022 11:50 UTC
31 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

In­ter­view with Prof Tet­lock on epistemic mod­esty, pre­dict­ing catas­trophic risks, AI, and more

80000_Hours20 Nov 2017 18:34 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some EA Fo­rum Posts I’d like to write

Linch23 Feb 2021 5:27 UTC
98 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Do­ing good while clueless

Milan_Griffes15 Feb 2018 5:04 UTC
46 points
8 comments6 min readEA link

In­ves­ti­gat­ing how tech­nol­ogy-fo­cused aca­demic fields be­come self-sustaining

Ben Snodin6 Sep 2021 15:04 UTC
43 points
4 comments42 min readEA link

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 17:52 UTC
12 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Biose­cu­rity Tour­na­ment Round 1 Launch

Juan Cambeiro10 Jul 2022 14:54 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

David Man­heim: A Per­sonal (In­terim) COVID-19 Postmortem

Linch1 Jul 2020 6:05 UTC
32 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

David Rhys Bernard: Es­ti­mat­ing long-term effects with­out long-term data

EA Global6 Jul 2020 15:16 UTC
23 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie Gooen15 Nov 2020 21:21 UTC
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Com­par­ing Su­perfore­cast­ing and the In­tel­li­gence Com­mu­nity Pre­dic­tion Market

LuisEUrtubey12 Apr 2022 9:24 UTC
27 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 22:30 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2022.

NunoSempere10 Sep 2022 8:59 UTC
29 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

[Pod­cast] Rob Wiblin on self-im­prove­ment and re­search ethics

MichaelA15 Jan 2021 7:24 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readEA link
(clearerthinkingpodcast.com)

We’re re­ally bad at guess­ing the future

Benj Azose13 Aug 2022 9:11 UTC
20 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
54 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

Bi­nary pre­dic­tion database and tournament

amandango17 Nov 2020 18:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 15:58 UTC
21 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus is build­ing a team ded­i­cated to AI forecasting

christian18 Oct 2022 16:08 UTC
35 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

Donor Lot­tery Debrief

TimothyTelleenLawton4 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
129 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

Ozzie Gooen8 Jan 2020 22:19 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Will protests lead to thou­sands of coro­n­avirus deaths?

Larks3 Jun 2020 19:08 UTC
77 points
58 comments5 min readEA link

900+ Fore­cast­ers on Whether Rus­sia Will In­vade Ukraine

Metaculus19 Feb 2022 13:29 UTC
51 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

Prin­ci­pled ex­trem­iz­ing of ag­gre­gated forecasts

Jaime Sevilla29 Dec 2021 18:49 UTC
44 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­casts about EA or­gani­sa­tions which are cur­rently on Me­tac­u­lus.

alex lawsen (previously alexrjl)29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
60 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate the EV of gen­eral in­tel­lec­tual progress

Ozzie Gooen27 Jan 2020 10:21 UTC
39 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC
84 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] Who is work­ing on struc­tured crowd fore­cast­ing?

David Johnston20 Dec 2021 8:58 UTC
4 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Sum­mary and Take­aways: Han­son’s “Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?”

Lizka25 Aug 2021 0:43 UTC
38 points
12 comments14 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2021

NunoSempere1 Aug 2021 15:07 UTC
19 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

Affec­tive fore­cast­ing: The challenge of pre­dict­ing fu­ture feel­ings and the im­pli­ca­tions for global pri­ori­ties research

Matt Coleman17 Feb 2022 20:36 UTC
53 points
3 comments21 min readEA link

[Question] Why does Elon Musk suck so much at cal­ibra­tion?

Evan_Gaensbauer6 Nov 2022 18:10 UTC
8 points
15 comments2 min readEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 2

Hmash14 Apr 2021 12:15 UTC
16 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Eva Vi­valt: Fore­cast­ing re­search results

EA Global19 Feb 2020 16:34 UTC
17 points
0 comments10 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
26 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:32 UTC
45 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] What stops you do­ing more fore­cast­ing?

Nathan Young16 Nov 2021 0:26 UTC
11 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

Sage20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC
86 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

Ozzie Gooen16 Oct 2019 14:47 UTC
48 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize Re­sults and Reflections

elifland29 Mar 2022 16:16 UTC
40 points
10 comments3 min readEA link

Cul­tured meat pre­dic­tions were overly optimistic

Neil_Dullaghan15 Sep 2021 12:32 UTC
190 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

[Cross-post] A nu­clear war fore­cast is not a coin flip

David Johnston15 Mar 2022 4:01 UTC
28 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Philip Tet­lock on why ac­cu­rate fore­cast­ing mat­ters for ev­ery­thing, and how you can do it better

80000_Hours28 Jun 2019 10:16 UTC
6 points
0 comments90 min readEA link

Bot­tle­necks to more im­pact­ful crowd forecasting

elifland26 Dec 2021 22:48 UTC
47 points
2 comments10 min readEA link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Po­ten­tial down­sides of us­ing ex­plicit probabilities

MichaelA20 Jan 2020 2:14 UTC
57 points
22 comments18 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
67 points
33 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:00 UTC
34 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] How might bet­ter col­lec­tive de­ci­sion-mak­ing back­fire?

Dawn Drescher13 Dec 2020 11:44 UTC
37 points
20 comments2 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity that FTX Fu­ture Fund grant money gets clawed back

spencerg14 Nov 2022 3:33 UTC
30 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory Lewis8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
22 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the Value of Small Altru­is­tic Pro­jects: A Proof of Con­cept Ex­per­i­ment.

NunoSempere22 Nov 2020 20:07 UTC
62 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Fore­cast pro­ce­dure competitions

David Johnston10 Jan 2022 0:17 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ers [link]

RyanCarey20 Aug 2015 18:38 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fu­ture Bowl Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment

ncmoulios28 Nov 2022 16:42 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Q&A with Philip Tet­lock (2016)

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Self-Sus­tain­ing Fields Liter­a­ture Re­view: Tech­nol­ogy Fore­cast­ing, How Aca­demic Fields Emerge, and the Science of Science

Megan Kinniment6 Sep 2021 15:04 UTC
27 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

How ac­cu­rate are Open Phil’s pre­dic­tions?

Javier Prieto16 Jun 2022 9:15 UTC
158 points
18 comments8 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Del­e­gate a forecast

amandango26 Jul 2020 5:05 UTC
42 points
42 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Me­tac­u­lus Ques­tions Suggest Money Will Do More Good in the Future

MichaelDickens22 Jul 2021 1:56 UTC
20 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

Nar­ra­tion: Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Re­treat, part 2

D0TheMath14 Jul 2021 19:41 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(anchor.fm)

“AI pre­dic­tions” (Fu­ture Fund AI Wor­ld­view Prize sub­mis­sion)

ketanrama5 Nov 2022 17:51 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(medium.com)

Re­quest for pro­pos­als: Help Open Philan­thropy quan­tify biolog­i­cal risk

djbinder12 May 2022 21:28 UTC
127 points
7 comments6 min readEA link

Event on Oct 9: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk with Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ Michael Aird

MichaelA29 Sep 2021 17:45 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readEA link
(www.eventbrite.com)

AMA: Ajeya Co­tra, re­searcher at Open Phil

Ajeya28 Jan 2021 17:38 UTC
84 points
105 comments1 min readEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 1

Hmash29 Mar 2021 10:59 UTC
44 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Pablo Staffor­ini’s Fore­cast­ing System

jungofthewon16 Sep 2020 20:46 UTC
73 points
9 comments11 min readEA link

Grokking “Fore­cast­ing TAI with biolog­i­cal an­chors”

anson6 Jun 2022 18:56 UTC
43 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

Build­ing a Bet­ter Dooms­day Clock

christian.r25 May 2022 17:02 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lawfareblog.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021.

NunoSempere27 Jan 2022 20:14 UTC
60 points
8 comments10 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

EA megapro­jects continued

mariushobbhahn3 Dec 2021 10:33 UTC
179 points
49 comments7 min readEA link

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 1 Oct 2021 18:57 UTC
47 points
14 comments9 min readEA link

The biggest red flag about SBF

trevor124 Nov 2022 19:08 UTC
18 points
11 comments4 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

The ap­pli­ca­bil­ity of transsen­tien­tist crit­i­cal path analysis

Peter Sølling11 Aug 2020 11:26 UTC
0 points
2 comments32 min readEA link
(www.optimalaltruism.com)

How to re­con­sider a prediction

Noah Scales25 Oct 2022 21:28 UTC
2 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Against pre­dic­tion markets

Denise_Melchin12 May 2018 12:08 UTC
25 points
20 comments4 min readEA link

[Link post] Will we see fast AI Take­off?

SammyDMartin30 Sep 2021 14:03 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Atari early

AI Impacts2 Apr 2020 23:28 UTC
34 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: In­ter­ac­tive exercise

EA Handbook1 Jan 2021 11:55 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

David_Althaus16 Dec 2020 12:11 UTC
70 points
19 comments19 min readEA link

Some learn­ings I had from fore­cast­ing in 2020

Linch3 Oct 2020 19:21 UTC
87 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Jaime Sevilla27 Jun 2022 13:39 UTC
183 points
11 comments2 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

“Nu­clear risk re­search, fore­cast­ing, & im­pact” [pre­sen­ta­tion]

MichaelA21 Oct 2021 10:54 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­casts es­ti­mate limited cul­tured meat pro­duc­tion through 2050

Neil_Dullaghan21 Mar 2022 23:13 UTC
122 points
10 comments27 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Tour­na­ment: Who will win the Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prize?

Sinclair Chen2 Sep 2022 1:11 UTC
13 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Peter Wilde­ford on Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk and why EA should fund scal­able non-profits

Michaël Trazzi13 Apr 2022 16:29 UTC
9 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(theinsideview.github.io)

De­creas­ing pop­ulism and im­prov­ing democ­racy, ev­i­dence-based policy, and rationality

Hauke Hillebrandt27 Jul 2021 18:14 UTC
41 points
10 comments26 min readEA link

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
95 points
24 comments12 min readEA link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya15 Dec 2020 12:10 UTC
35 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(alignmentforum.org)

In­sta­bil­ity risks of the up­com­ing U.S. elec­tion and recom­men­da­tions for EAs

Juan Cambeiro3 Nov 2020 1:19 UTC
30 points
1 comment5 min readEA link

Sur­vey of 2018 EA Survey

DavidNash20 Dec 2018 17:29 UTC
26 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion: The long and the short of it

Global Priorities Institute30 Nov 2019 14:32 UTC
3 points
0 comments6 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

[Question] How can pre­dic­tion mar­kets be­come more trendy, le­gal, and ac­cessible?

ColinBested12 Mar 2019 20:04 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempere1 Feb 2021 22:53 UTC
17 points
4 comments7 min readEA link

Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Retreat

Hmash20 Feb 2021 5:55 UTC
52 points
4 comments17 min readEA link

Early-warn­ing Fore­cast­ing Cen­ter: What it is, and why it’d be cool

Linch14 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
57 points
8 comments11 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus seek­ing An­a­lyt­i­cal Sto­ry­tel­lers to write es­says for­tified with testable predictions

christian6 Oct 2021 4:39 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Light­ning talks from EA Global: San Fran­cisco (2018)

EA Global8 Jun 2018 20:51 UTC
6 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Po­ten­tially great ways fore­cast­ing can im­prove the longterm future

Linch14 Mar 2022 19:21 UTC
37 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] What ques­tions would you like to see fore­casts on from the Me­tac­u­lus com­mu­nity?

alex lawsen (previously alexrjl)26 Jul 2020 14:40 UTC
32 points
30 comments2 min readEA link

$13,000 of prizes for chang­ing our minds about who to fund (Clearer Think­ing Re­grants Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment)

spencerg20 Sep 2022 16:08 UTC
46 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

My thoughts on nan­otech­nol­ogy strat­egy re­search as an EA cause area

Ben Snodin2 May 2022 9:41 UTC
135 points
17 comments33 min readEA link

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël Trazzi6 Sep 2022 9:53 UTC
38 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(theinsideview.ai)

We are giv­ing $10k as fore­cast­ing micro-grants

Misha_Yagudin8 Feb 2022 12:20 UTC
51 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion and fore­cast­ing — an overview (Amanda Ngo)

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
10 points
0 comments14 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempere5 Apr 2022 18:28 UTC
21 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Con­cern­ing the Re­cent 2019-Novel Coron­avirus Outbreak

Matthew_Barnett27 Jan 2020 5:47 UTC
136 points
142 comments3 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets in­ter­view with Joel Becker

David Chee15 Jul 2022 20:33 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

Jaime Sevilla3 Sep 2021 9:58 UTC
105 points
59 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 16:59 UTC
24 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

Epistemics-Im­prov­ing Ac­tivi­ties for Groups and Friends

ChanaMessinger10 Oct 2022 13:11 UTC
45 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Will Three Gorges Dam Col­lapse And Kill Millions?

DC26 Jul 2020 2:43 UTC
80 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

Im­prov­ing “Im­prov­ing In­sti­tu­tional De­ci­sion-Mak­ing”: A brief his­tory of IIDM

Sophia Brown12 Sep 2022 17:45 UTC
66 points
3 comments12 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Forecasts

lukeprog25 Oct 2016 13:13 UTC
4 points
0 comments6 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

What 2026 looks like (Daniel’s me­dian fu­ture)

kokotajlod7 Aug 2021 5:14 UTC
38 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A Brief Sum­mary Of The Most Im­por­tant Century

Maynk0225 Oct 2022 15:28 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
38 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

EA for dumb peo­ple?

Olivia Addy11 Jul 2022 10:46 UTC
442 points
160 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Where is a good place to start learn­ing about Fore­cast­ing?

Dvir Caspi14 Jan 2022 22:26 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
87 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Fore­cast­ing Challenge

nikos17 May 2021 19:28 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 20:29 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:35 UTC
23 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
56 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Some global catas­trophic risk estimates

Tamay10 Feb 2021 19:32 UTC
106 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
124 points
37 comments5 min readEA link

Book Re­view: The Sig­nal and the Noise

Sam Enright18 Jul 2021 21:32 UTC
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Helping fu­ture re­searchers to bet­ter un­der­stand long-term forecasting

gabriel_wagner25 Nov 2020 18:55 UTC
2 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
35 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

BrownHairedEevee12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

An es­ti­mate of the value of Me­tac­u­lus questions

NunoSempere22 Oct 2021 17:45 UTC
47 points
19 comments8 min readEA link

On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

bgarfinkel19 Jun 2022 14:35 UTC
261 points
188 comments17 min readEA link

EA Fundrais­ing Through Ad­van­tage Sports Bet­ting: A Guide ($500/​Hour in Select States)

Sam Anschell27 Jan 2022 8:57 UTC
61 points
78 comments12 min readEA link

[Question] What pre­vi­ous work has been done on fac­tors that af­fect the pace of tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ment?

Megan Kinniment27 Apr 2021 18:43 UTC
21 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Path­ways to im­pact for fore­cast­ing and evaluation

NunoSempere25 Nov 2021 17:59 UTC
29 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

Flag­ging up a ‘pre­dic­tion mar­ket’

Forumite12 Jul 2022 12:07 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2022

NunoSempere8 Aug 2022 8:03 UTC
30 points
0 comments15 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 20:59 UTC
29 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

elifland4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
91 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
21 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
42 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2022

NunoSempere10 May 2022 16:40 UTC
44 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2022

NunoSempere3 Jun 2022 19:32 UTC
31 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Please Share Your Per­spec­tives on the De­gree of So­cietal Im­pact from Trans­for­ma­tive AI Outcomes

Kiliank15 Apr 2022 1:23 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Up­dat­ing on the pas­sage of time and con­di­tional pre­dic­tion curves

Jonas Moss11 Aug 2022 18:18 UTC
37 points
6 comments12 min readEA link

Quan­tum com­put­ing timelines

Jaime Sevilla15 Sep 2020 14:15 UTC
21 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Get­ting GPT-3 to pre­dict Me­tac­u­lus questions

MathiasKB6 May 2022 12:12 UTC
59 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

6 Year De­crease of Me­tac­u­lus AGI Prediction

Chris Leong12 Apr 2022 5:36 UTC
40 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Top open Me­tac­u­lus forecasts

EA Handbook20 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

“Be­fore 5 Au­gust 2022, will Rus­sia deto­nate a nu­clear de­vice out­side of Rus­sian ter­ri­tory or airspace?”

LuisEUrtubey15 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Predictions

Pablo21 Nov 2020 12:02 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikos15 Apr 2022 9:53 UTC
23 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Put­ting Peo­ple First in a Cul­ture of De­hu­man­iza­tion

jhealy22 Jul 2020 3:31 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Are there su­perfore­casts for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Alex HT7 Jul 2020 7:39 UTC
24 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:03 UTC
20 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Cur­rent Es­ti­mates for Like­li­hood of X-Risk?

rhys_lindmark6 Aug 2018 18:05 UTC
24 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

An­nual AGI Bench­mark­ing Event

Metaculus26 Aug 2022 21:31 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Con­ver­sa­tion on tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing and gradualism

RobBensinger9 Dec 2021 19:00 UTC
15 points
3 comments31 min readEA link

Over­re­act­ing to cur­rent events can be very costly

Kelsey Piper4 Oct 2022 21:30 UTC
280 points
71 comments4 min readEA link

List of past fraud­sters similar to SBF

NunoSempere28 Nov 2022 18:31 UTC
114 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 16:56 UTC
31 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

Pro­posal for Fore­cast­ing Givewell-Char­ity Im­pact-Metrics

Patrick Gruban13 Apr 2022 10:21 UTC
28 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion of prob­a­bil­ities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and pub­li­ca­tions dur­ing the PhD.

PabloAMC20 Sep 2020 18:32 UTC
42 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

Ra­tional pre­dic­tions of­ten up­date pre­dictably*

Gregory Lewis15 May 2022 16:09 UTC
137 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempere5 Mar 2022 19:16 UTC
25 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches FluSight Challenge 2022/​23

christian24 Oct 2022 17:10 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 20 Jul 2021 9:07 UTC
77 points
2 comments7 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

Owen Cot­ton-Bar­ratt, Robin Han­son, Ja­son Ma­theny, and Ju­lia Galef: Forecasting

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

How Can Donors In­cen­tivize Good Pre­dic­tions on Im­por­tant but Un­pop­u­lar Topics?

MichaelDickens3 Feb 2019 1:11 UTC
27 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing ex­pe­rienced lead­ers, re­searchers & op­er­a­tors for high-im­pact roles

christian10 Jul 2022 14:29 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

7 es­says on Build­ing a Bet­ter Future

Jamie_Harris24 Jun 2022 14:28 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Rus­sia-Ukraine Con­flict: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk in 2022

Metaculus24 Mar 2022 21:03 UTC
23 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

One’s Fu­ture Be­hav­ior as a Do­main of Calibration

markus_over31 Dec 2020 15:48 UTC
17 points
8 comments10 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alex lawsen (previously alexrjl)10 Nov 2020 21:40 UTC
54 points
11 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing “Cli­mate Change and the Long-term Fu­ture”

LuisEUrtubey23 Jul 2022 0:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

BitBets: A Sim­ple Scor­ing Sys­tem for Fore­caster Training

Hmash18 Mar 2021 11:19 UTC
28 points
5 comments9 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ing in a nutshell

lukeprog25 Feb 2021 6:11 UTC
40 points
2 comments3 min readEA link
(lukemuehlhauser.com)

Fo­rum rank­ing sys­tem pro­to­type: Cause Pri­orit­sa­tion Con­test posts ranked by pre­dic­tion markets

Nathan Young5 Sep 2022 15:55 UTC
18 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Man­i­fold for Good: Bet on the fu­ture, for charity

Austin2 May 2022 18:06 UTC
35 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

LW4EA: Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

Jeremy30 Aug 2022 15:20 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets For Credit?

DirectedEvolution5 Mar 2022 20:33 UTC
16 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

Austin9 Feb 2022 17:37 UTC
32 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

View and Bet in Man­i­fold pre­dic­tion mar­kets on EA Forum

Sinclair Chen24 May 2022 17:05 UTC
67 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Event-driven mis­sion cor­re­lated in­vest­ing and the 2020 US election

jh14 Jun 2021 15:06 UTC
47 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

An at­tempt to pro­mote pre­dic­tion markets

Timothy_Liptrot10 May 2022 14:19 UTC
7 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Pro­ject: A web plat­form for crowd­sourc­ing im­pact es­ti­mates of in­ter­ven­tions.

Max Clarke22 Apr 2022 6:54 UTC
41 points
18 comments5 min readEA link

[Fic­tion] Im­proved Gover­nance on the Crit­i­cal Path to AI Align­ment by 2045.

Jackson Wagner18 May 2022 15:50 UTC
20 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing for Good: Char­ity Pre­dic­tion Markets

Austin22 Mar 2022 17:44 UTC
42 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempere18 Feb 2022 20:39 UTC
91 points
8 comments11 min readEA link

Open Com­mu­ni­ca­tion in the Days of Mal­i­cious On­line Actors

Ozzie Gooen6 Oct 2020 23:57 UTC
38 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

Shal­low eval­u­a­tions of longter­mist organizations

NunoSempere24 Jun 2021 15:31 UTC
191 points
34 comments34 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment to eval­u­ate the value of one re­searcher’s work

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 9:01 UTC
57 points
23 comments10 min readEA link

Im­prove del­e­ga­tion abil­ities to­day, del­e­gate heav­ily tomorrow

Ozzie Gooen11 Nov 2021 21:52 UTC
57 points
11 comments2 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Im­pact of the First 10 EA Fo­rum Prize Winners

NunoSempere16 Mar 2021 17:11 UTC
81 points
35 comments18 min readEA link

13 Very Differ­ent Stances on AGI

Ozzie Gooen27 Dec 2021 23:30 UTC
84 points
27 comments3 min readEA link

Am­bi­tious Altru­is­tic Soft­ware Eng­ineer­ing Efforts: Op­por­tu­ni­ties and Benefits

Ozzie Gooen17 Nov 2021 18:12 UTC
108 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Do­ing Good Badly? - Michael Plant’s the­sis, Chap­ters 5,6 on Cause Pri­ori­ti­za­tion

EdoArad4 Mar 2021 16:57 UTC
75 points
16 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­ter­nal Eval­u­a­tion of the EA Wiki

NunoSempere13 Dec 2021 17:09 UTC
78 points
18 comments20 min readEA link

EA/​Ra­tion­al­ist Safety Nets: Promis­ing, but Arduous

Ozzie Gooen29 Dec 2021 18:41 UTC
69 points
36 comments4 min readEA link

Op­por­tu­nity Costs of Tech­ni­cal Ta­lent: In­tu­ition and (Sim­ple) Implications

Ozzie Gooen19 Nov 2021 15:04 UTC
46 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Flimsy Pet The­o­ries, Enor­mous Initiatives

Ozzie Gooen9 Dec 2021 15:10 UTC
208 points
57 comments4 min readEA link

Valu­ing re­search works by elic­it­ing com­par­i­sons from EA researchers

NunoSempere17 Mar 2022 19:58 UTC
109 points
20 comments8 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the Value of Evaluations

Elizabeth10 Jan 2021 22:59 UTC
23 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie Gooen4 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Sim­ple com­par­i­son pol­ling to cre­ate util­ity functions

NunoSempere15 Nov 2021 19:48 UTC
45 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Can­di­dates: Jan­uary 2021–March 2022 update

Leo30 Apr 2022 17:21 UTC
122 points
16 comments19 min readEA link

Why don’t gov­ern­ments seem to mind that com­pa­nies are ex­plic­itly try­ing to make AGIs?

Ozzie Gooen23 Dec 2021 7:08 UTC
82 points
52 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell’s GiveDirectly Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

SamNolan27 May 2022 3:10 UTC
130 points
19 comments7 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Candidates

NunoSempere25 Dec 2020 16:34 UTC
241 points
69 comments47 min readEA link

Con­tri­bu­tion-Ad­justed Utility Max­i­miza­tion Funds: An Early Proposal

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2021 23:01 UTC
14 points
4 comments12 min readEA link

Brief eval­u­a­tions of top-10 billionnaires

NunoSempere21 Oct 2022 15:29 UTC
79 points
66 comments6 min readEA link

Disagree­ables and Asses­sors: Two In­tel­lec­tual Archetypes

Ozzie Gooen5 Nov 2021 9:01 UTC
85 points
20 comments3 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC
298 points
104 comments26 min readEA link

Build­ing Blocks of Utility Maximization

NunoSempere20 Sep 2021 17:23 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

A Fun­nel for Cause Candidates

NunoSempere13 Jan 2021 19:45 UTC
34 points
24 comments3 min readEA link

Value of In­fo­ma­tion, an ex­am­ple with GiveDirectly

SamNolan30 Aug 2022 20:37 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie Gooen18 Oct 2021 22:22 UTC
87 points
35 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] What should the norms around pri­vacy and eval­u­a­tion in the EA com­mu­nity be?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
65 points
17 comments1 min readEA link

What are good rubrics or rubric el­e­ments to eval­u­ate and pre­dict im­pact?

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 21:52 UTC
24 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Can/​should we au­to­mate most hu­man de­ci­sions, pre-AGI?

Ozzie Gooen26 Dec 2021 1:37 UTC
25 points
9 comments5 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolan31 Oct 2022 14:31 UTC
108 points
2 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempere12 Sep 2022 11:19 UTC
111 points
13 comments12 min readEA link

The “feel­ing of mean­ing” vs. “ob­jec­tive mean­ing”

Ozzie Gooen5 Dec 2021 1:51 UTC
21 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Suc­cess Max­i­miza­tion: An Alter­na­tive to Ex­pected Utility The­ory and a Gen­er­al­iza­tion of Max­ipok to Mo­ral Uncertainty

Mahendra Prasad26 Nov 2022 1:53 UTC
13 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

An in-progress ex­per­i­ment to test how Laplace’s rule of suc­ces­sion performs in prac­tice.

NunoSempere30 Jan 2023 17:41 UTC
51 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

2018-2019 Long-Term Fu­ture Fund Gran­tees: How did they do?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
197 points
23 comments5 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk up­date Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempere3 Oct 2022 18:10 UTC
262 points
52 comments16 min readEA link

Nu­clear Ex­pert Com­ment on Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Forecast

Jhrosenberg26 Mar 2022 9:22 UTC
128 points
13 comments16 min readEA link

My take on What We Owe the Future

elifland1 Sep 2022 18:07 UTC
351 points
51 comments26 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Effec­tive Self-Help

Ben Williamson6 Jan 2022 13:11 UTC
108 points
18 comments22 min readEA link

Ad­ding Quan­tified Uncer­tainty to GiveWell’s Cost Effec­tive­ness Anal­y­sis of the Against Malaria Foundation

Tanae31 Aug 2022 12:53 UTC
30 points
10 comments3 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

[Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge] CEA LEEP Malawi

drwahl1 Sep 2022 5:13 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link
(danwahl.net)

Im­prov­ing Karma: $8mn of pos­si­ble value (my es­ti­mate)

Nathan Young1 Sep 2022 22:42 UTC
34 points
15 comments12 min readEA link

What is es­ti­ma­tional pro­gram­ming? Squig­gle in context

quinn12 Aug 2022 18:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

How many EA billion­aires five years from now?

Erich_Grunewald20 Aug 2022 9:57 UTC
60 points
23 comments6 min readEA link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

Joe_Carlsmith28 Apr 2021 21:41 UTC
87 points
34 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict re­sponses to the “ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” survey

RobBensinger28 May 2021 1:38 UTC
36 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Disagree­ment with bio an­chors that lead to shorter timelines

mariushobbhahn16 Nov 2022 14:40 UTC
80 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How much will pre-trans­for­ma­tive AI speed up R&D?

Ben Snodin31 May 2021 20:20 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Rood­man’s Thoughts on Biolog­i­cal Anchors

lukeprog14 Sep 2022 12:23 UTC
72 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Pod­cast: Mag­nus Vind­ing on re­duc­ing suffer­ing, why AI progress is likely to be grad­ual and dis­tributed and how to rea­son about poli­tics

Gus Docker21 Nov 2021 15:29 UTC
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

Dis­cussing how to al­ign Trans­for­ma­tive AI if it’s de­vel­oped very soon

elifland28 Nov 2022 16:17 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Drivers of large lan­guage model diffu­sion: in­cre­men­tal re­search, pub­lic­ity, and cascades

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
21 points
0 comments29 min readEA link

Against the weird­ness heuris­tic

Eleni_A5 Oct 2022 14:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Ex­plo­ra­tory Sce­nario Map­ping for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion [Linkpost]

Kiliank9 May 2022 19:53 UTC
17 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

Publi­ca­tion de­ci­sions for large lan­guage mod­els, and their impacts

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
14 points
0 comments16 min readEA link

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

Jake Cannell6 Oct 2022 7:06 UTC
27 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Back­ground for “Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els”

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
12 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

kokotajlod1 Mar 2021 21:04 UTC
28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Ar­gu­ment Against Im­pact: EU Is Not an AI Su­per­power

EU AI Governance31 Jan 2022 9:48 UTC
35 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

Con­clu­sion and Bibliog­ra­phy for “Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els”

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
12 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
47 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Win­ners of the EA Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Contest

Lizka1 Oct 2022 1:50 UTC
224 points
42 comments19 min readEA link

What role should evolu­tion­ary analo­gies play in un­der­stand­ing AI take­off speeds?

anson11 Dec 2021 1:16 UTC
12 points
0 comments42 min readEA link

[Question] Is there any re­search or fore­casts of how likely AI Align­ment is go­ing to be a hard vs. easy prob­lem rel­a­tive to ca­pa­bil­ities?

Jordan Arel14 Aug 2022 15:58 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Shul­man and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

CarlShulman4 Dec 2021 11:37 UTC
46 points
0 comments20 min readEA link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s model of eco­nomic growth and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom_Davidson19 Jul 2021 21:47 UTC
89 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 7:55 UTC
18 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Im­pli­ca­tions of large lan­guage model diffu­sion for AI governance

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
14 points
0 comments38 min readEA link

Some Back­ground on Open Philan­thropy’s Views Re­gard­ing Ad­vanced Ar­tifi­cial Intelligence

Holden Karnofsky16 May 2016 13:08 UTC
3 points
0 comments29 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Ex­pected eth­i­cal value of a ca­reer in AI safety

Jordan Taylor14 Jun 2022 14:25 UTC
36 points
16 comments11 min readEA link

[Question] What is the best source to ex­plain short AI timelines to a skep­ti­cal per­son?

trevor123 Nov 2022 5:20 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Timelines in Gover­nance: Differ­ent Strate­gies for Differ­ent Timeframes

simeon_c19 Dec 2022 21:31 UTC
110 points
19 comments1 min readEA link

Ajeya’s TAI timeline short­ened from 2050 to 2040

Zach Stein-Perlman3 Aug 2022 0:00 UTC
59 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:53 UTC
54 points
5 comments9 min readEA link

Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

kokotajlod15 Jun 2021 11:02 UTC
43 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

A Bird’s Eye View of the ML Field [Prag­matic AI Safety #2]

ThomasW9 May 2022 17:15 UTC
92 points
2 comments36 min readEA link

[Question] What are the top pri­ori­ties in a slow-take­off, mul­ti­po­lar world?

JP Addison25 Aug 2021 8:47 UTC
26 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Are AGI timelines ig­nored in EA work on other cause ar­eas?

freedomandutility18 Aug 2022 12:13 UTC
20 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

4 Key As­sump­tions in AI Safety

Prometheus7 Nov 2022 10:50 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

AGI x-risk timelines: 10% chance (by year X) es­ti­mates should be the head­line, not 50%.

Greg_Colbourn1 Mar 2022 12:02 UTC
67 points
22 comments1 min readEA link

AI Gover­nance Needs Tech­ni­cal Work

Mauricio5 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC
91 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

“Slower tech de­vel­op­ment” can be about or­der­ing, grad­u­al­ness, or dis­tance from now

MichaelA14 Nov 2021 20:58 UTC
37 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

GPT-3-like mod­els are now much eas­ier to ac­cess and de­ploy than to develop

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
22 points
3 comments19 min readEA link

[Link post] How plau­si­ble are AI Takeover sce­nar­ios?

SammyDMartin27 Sep 2021 13:03 UTC
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI: What Kind of AI?

Holden Karnofsky10 Aug 2021 21:38 UTC
61 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

Hacker-AI – Does it already ex­ist?

Erland Wittkotter7 Nov 2022 14:01 UTC
0 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Epoch is hiring a Re­search Data Analyst

merilalama22 Nov 2022 17:34 UTC
21 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:18 UTC
18 points
0 comments15 min readEA link

My per­sonal cruxes for work­ing on AI safety

Buck13 Feb 2020 7:11 UTC
135 points
35 comments45 min readEA link

We Ran an AI Timelines Retreat

Lenny McCline17 May 2022 4:40 UTC
46 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Sur­vey on AI ex­is­ten­tial risk scenarios

Sam Clarke8 Jun 2021 17:12 UTC
150 points
8 comments6 min readEA link

Ques­tions for fur­ther in­ves­ti­ga­tion of AI diffusion

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:50 UTC
28 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

It takes 5 lay­ers and 1000 ar­tifi­cial neu­rons to simu­late a sin­gle biolog­i­cal neu­ron [Link]

MichaelStJules7 Sep 2021 21:53 UTC
44 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

Why I think strong gen­eral AI is com­ing soon

porby28 Sep 2022 6:55 UTC
14 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart1 Oct 2021 8:25 UTC
38 points
6 comments19 min readEA link

[Question] Will more AI sys­tems be trained to make use of pre­ex­ist­ing com­pu­ta­tional tools?

deep6 May 2022 17:16 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

War in Taiwan and AI Timelines

Jordan_Schneider24 Aug 2022 2:24 UTC
18 points
3 comments9 min readEA link
(www.chinatalk.media)

Biol­ogy-In­spired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

EliezerYudkowsky1 Dec 2021 22:44 UTC
22 points
3 comments66 min readEA link

My at­tempt to think about AI timelines

Ben Snodin18 May 2021 17:05 UTC
53 points
20 comments8 min readEA link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

AI Impacts17 Apr 2020 16:28 UTC
69 points
3 comments24 min readEA link

If slow-take­off AGI is some­what likely, don’t give now

Milan_Griffes23 Jan 2019 20:54 UTC
21 points
33 comments2 min readEA link

How Do AI Timelines Affect Giv­ing Now vs. Later?

MichaelDickens3 Aug 2021 3:36 UTC
36 points
8 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

kokotajlod5 Nov 2020 19:57 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

2022 AI ex­pert sur­vey results

Zach Stein-Perlman4 Aug 2022 15:54 UTC
87 points
7 comments2 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

Effects of anti-ag­ing re­search on the long-term future

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2020 22:42 UTC
61 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

“AGI timelines: ig­nore the so­cial fac­tor at their peril” (Fu­ture Fund AI Wor­ld­view Prize sub­mis­sion)

ketanrama5 Nov 2022 17:45 UTC
10 points
0 comments12 min readEA link
(trevorklee.substack.com)

Why AI is Harder Than We Think—Me­lanie Mitchell

BrownHairedEevee28 Apr 2021 8:19 UTC
41 points
7 comments2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI: Are we “trend­ing to­ward” trans­for­ma­tive AI? (How would we know?)

Holden Karnofsky24 Aug 2021 17:15 UTC
56 points
12 comments10 min readEA link

“Biolog­i­cal an­chors” is about bound­ing, not pin­point­ing, AI timelines

Holden Karnofsky18 Nov 2021 21:03 UTC
38 points
9 comments11 min readEA link

“Origi­nal­ity is noth­ing but ju­di­cious imi­ta­tion”—Voltaire

Damien Lasseur23 Oct 2022 19:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

AGI al­ign­ment re­sults from a se­ries of al­igned ac­tions

hanadulset27 Dec 2021 19:33 UTC
15 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Phil Tram­mell on Eco­nomic Growth Un­der Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Michaël Trazzi24 Oct 2021 18:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments54 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Fi­nal Re­port of the Na­tional Se­cu­rity Com­mis­sion on Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence (NSCAI, 2021)

MichaelA1 Jun 2021 8:19 UTC
51 points
3 comments4 min readEA link
(www.nscai.gov)

[linkpost] When does tech­ni­cal work to re­duce AGI con­flict make a differ­ence?: Introduction

antimonyanthony16 Sep 2022 14:35 UTC
31 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

kokotajlod20 Nov 2020 16:56 UTC
15 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Mis­sion-cor­re­lated in­vest­ing: Ex­am­ples of mis­sion hedg­ing and ‘lev­er­ag­ing’

jh11 Mar 2022 9:33 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Asya Ber­gal: Rea­sons you might think hu­man-level AI is un­likely to hap­pen soon

EA Global26 Aug 2020 16:01 UTC
24 points
2 comments17 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: the “biolog­i­cal an­chors” method in a nutshell

Holden Karnofsky31 Aug 2021 18:17 UTC
45 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

Im­pli­ca­tion of AI timelines on plan­ning and solutions

JJ Hepburn21 Aug 2021 5:11 UTC
15 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: what’s the bur­den of proof?

Holden Karnofsky17 Aug 2021 17:14 UTC
70 points
16 comments16 min readEA link

[Question] What work has been done on the post-AGI dis­tri­bu­tion of wealth?

levin6 Jul 2022 18:59 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the Cur­rent and Fu­ture Num­ber of AI Safety Researchers

Stephen McAleese28 Sep 2022 20:58 UTC
58 points
29 comments9 min readEA link

What if we don’t need a “Hard Left Turn” to reach AGI?

Eigengender15 Jul 2022 9:49 UTC
39 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Open Philan­thropy’s AI grants

Vasco Grilo30 Jul 2022 17:22 UTC
21 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

GiveWell should use shorter TAI timelines

Oscar Delaney27 Oct 2022 6:59 UTC
52 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

More Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

EliezerYudkowsky6 Dec 2021 20:34 UTC
16 points
1 comment40 min readEA link

A con­ver­sa­tion with Ro­hin Shah

AI Impacts12 Nov 2019 1:31 UTC
27 points
8 comments33 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

“Ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” sur­vey results

RobBensinger1 Jun 2021 20:19 UTC
80 points
35 comments11 min readEA link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:54 UTC
45 points
4 comments18 min readEA link

[Question] How does one find out their AGI timelines?

Yadav7 Nov 2022 22:34 UTC
19 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

‘Dis­solv­ing’ AI Risk – Pa­ram­e­ter Uncer­tainty in AI Fu­ture Forecasting

Froolow18 Oct 2022 22:54 UTC
101 points
63 comments39 min readEA link

Have your timelines changed as a re­sult of ChatGPT?

Chris Leong5 Dec 2022 15:03 UTC
30 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

New re­port on how much com­pu­ta­tional power it takes to match the hu­man brain (Open Philan­thropy)

Aaron Gertler15 Sep 2020 1:06 UTC
41 points
1 comment18 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

AI timelines and the­o­ret­i­cal un­der­stand­ing of deep learn­ing

Venky102412 Sep 2021 16:26 UTC
4 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

[Linkpost] The Prob­lem With The Cur­rent State of AGI Definitions

Yitz29 May 2022 17:01 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Fu­ture Fund Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC
−10 points
23 comments13 min readEA link

The repli­ca­tion and em­u­la­tion of GPT-3

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
14 points
0 comments33 min readEA link

Why AGI Timeline Re­search/​Dis­course Might Be Overrated

Miles_Brundage3 Jul 2022 8:04 UTC
115 points
30 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Ajeya Co­tra — se­nior re­searcher at Open Philan­thropy, and ex­pert on AI timelines and safety challenges?

Robert_Wiblin28 Oct 2022 15:28 UTC
23 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: May 2021 grant recommendations

abergal27 May 2021 6:44 UTC
110 points
17 comments58 min readEA link

“In­tro to brain-like-AGI safety” se­ries—halfway point!

Steven Byrnes9 Mar 2022 15:21 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Link post] Pa­ram­e­ter counts in Ma­chine Learning

Jaime Sevilla1 Jul 2021 15:44 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Longter­mism and An­i­mal Farm­ing Trajectories

MichaelDello27 Dec 2022 0:58 UTC
51 points
8 comments17 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Un­der­stand­ing the diffu­sion of large lan­guage mod­els: summary

Ben Cottier21 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC
124 points
18 comments22 min readEA link

Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence, Mo­ral­ity, and Sen­tience (AIMS) Sur­vey: 2021

Janet Pauketat1 Jul 2022 7:47 UTC
36 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

[Question] What will be some of the most im­pact­ful ap­pli­ca­tions of ad­vanced AI in the near term?

IanDavidMoss3 Mar 2022 15:26 UTC
16 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Safety timelines: How long will it take to solve al­ign­ment?

Esben Kran19 Sep 2022 12:51 UTC
39 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

How Do AI Timelines Affect Ex­is­ten­tial Risk?

Stephen McAleese29 Aug 2022 17:10 UTC
2 points
0 comments23 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

Milan_Griffes11 Jul 2019 3:37 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What are the num­bers in mind for the su­per-short AGI timelines so many long-ter­mists are alarmed about?

Evan_Gaensbauer19 Apr 2022 21:09 UTC
41 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Link post] Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth22 Sep 2021 2:43 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Are AGI labs build­ing up im­por­tant in­tan­gibles?

Raven8 Apr 2022 18:43 UTC
9 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

EliezerYudkowsky22 Nov 2021 19:42 UTC
42 points
0 comments60 min readEA link

How im­por­tant are ac­cu­rate AI timelines for the op­ti­mal spend­ing sched­ule on AI risk in­ter­ven­tions?

Tristan Cook16 Dec 2022 16:05 UTC
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Bryan Ca­plan on open bor­ders, UBI, to­tal­i­tar­i­anism, AI, pan­demics, util­i­tar­i­anism and la­bor economics

Gus Docker22 Feb 2022 15:04 UTC
22 points
0 comments46 min readEA link
(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

Re­port on Whether AI Could Drive Ex­plo­sive Eco­nomic Growth

Tom_Davidson25 Jun 2021 23:02 UTC
63 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Speaker Event + Meetup

Group Organizer30 Jun 2022 5:57 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Chris­tian Tarsney on fu­ture bias and a pos­si­ble solu­tion to moral fanaticism

Pablo6 May 2021 10:39 UTC
26 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2020 grants and recommendations

Habryka18 Sep 2020 10:28 UTC
40 points
7 comments9 min readEA link
(app.effectivealtruism.org)

Me­tac­u­lus is hiring

aaguirre9 Dec 2020 20:58 UTC
30 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Poly­genic Selec­tion for IQ

Metaculus28 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC
39 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

“Two-fac­tor” vot­ing (“two di­men­sional”: karma, agree­ment) for EA fo­rum?

david_reinstein25 Jun 2022 11:10 UTC
81 points
18 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Prac­ti­cal ethics re­quires meta­phys­i­cal Free Will

Ansgar Kamratowski7 Apr 2022 14:47 UTC
4 points
0 comments13 min readEA link

[Question] What’s the GiveDirectly of longter­mism & ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Nathan Young15 Nov 2021 23:55 UTC
28 points
25 comments1 min readEA link

EA In­fras­truc­ture Fund: May–Au­gust 2021 grant recommendations

Max_Daniel24 Dec 2021 10:42 UTC
85 points
19 comments19 min readEA link
(funds.effectivealtruism.org)

A quick and crude com­par­i­son of epi­demiolog­i­cal ex­pert fore­casts ver­sus Me­tac­u­lus fore­casts for COVID-19

Jotto2 Apr 2020 19:29 UTC
9 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Should you still use the ITN frame­work? [Red Team­ing Con­test]

frib14 Jul 2022 4:02 UTC
15 points
12 comments9 min readEA link

UVC air puri­fier de­sign and test­ing strategy

DirectedEvolution1 Jun 2022 5:35 UTC
27 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

“How many peo­ple might ever ex­ist, calcu­lated” by Primer [Video]

Ezra Newman16 Aug 2022 16:33 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Zachary Robin­son: Us­ing “back of the en­velope calcu­la­tions” (BOTECs) to pri­ori­tize interventions

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

A peek at pair­wise prefer­ence es­ti­ma­tion in eco­nomics, mar­ket­ing, and statistics

Jonas Moss8 Oct 2022 4:56 UTC
30 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(blog.jonasmoss.com)

[Question] Is im­prov­ing the welfare of arthro­pods and ne­ma­todes un­der­rated?

Vasco Grilo8 Nov 2022 10:26 UTC
35 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Are poul­try birds re­ally im­por­tant? Yes...

Vasco Grilo19 Jun 2022 18:24 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Prob­a­bil­ity es­ti­mate for wild an­i­mal welfare prioritization

Stijn23 Oct 2019 20:47 UTC
9 points
20 comments17 min readEA link

[Question] Have you ever used a Fermi calcu­la­tion to make a per­sonal ca­reer de­ci­sion?

ben.smith9 Nov 2020 9:34 UTC
6 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of donat­ing a kidney

Vasco Grilo23 Apr 2022 21:50 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Open Let­ter Against Reck­less Nu­clear Es­ca­la­tion and Use

Vasco Grilo3 Nov 2022 15:08 UTC
10 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(futureoflife.org)

How much dona­tions are needed to neu­tral­ise the an­nual x-risk foot­print of the mean hu­man?

Vasco Grilo22 Sep 2022 6:41 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Should Effec­tive Altru­ists Fo­cus More on Move­ment Build­ing?

Aaron Bergman30 Dec 2020 3:16 UTC
20 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] What is the re­la­tion­ship be­tween im­pact and EA Fo­rum karma?

Vasco Grilo6 Dec 2022 10:42 UTC
14 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

The num­ber of seabirds and sea mam­mals kil­led by marine plas­tic pol­lu­tion is quite small rel­a­tive to the catch of fish

Vasco Grilo19 Apr 2022 11:22 UTC
79 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2022.

NunoSempere12 Oct 2022 16:37 UTC
23 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempere10 Jan 2022 19:34 UTC
37 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2021.

NunoSempere2 Nov 2021 14:05 UTC
15 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempere3 Feb 2022 19:10 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

[Question] What should my re­search lab fo­cus on in the first week of 2023?

Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)4 Nov 2022 10:16 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What “pivotal” and use­ful re­search … would you like to see as­sessed? (Bounty for sug­ges­tions)

david_reinstein28 Apr 2022 15:49 UTC
37 points
21 comments7 min readEA link

The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism (Tarsney, 2020)

MichaelA4 Apr 2021 3:09 UTC
79 points
27 comments1 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The Case for Strong Longtermism

Global Priorities Institute3 Sep 2019 1:17 UTC
14 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Open Philan­thropy’s AI gov­er­nance grant­mak­ing (so far)

Aaron Gertler17 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC
63 points
0 comments6 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Overview of Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ work on risks from nu­clear weapons

MichaelA10 Jun 2021 18:48 UTC
43 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing long-term treat­ment effects with­out long-term out­come data

Global Priorities Institute29 Sep 2020 13:30 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Chris­tian Tarsney: Can we pre­dictably im­prove the far fu­ture?

EA Global18 Oct 2019 7:40 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Thoughts on “A case against strong longter­mism” (Mas­rani)

MichaelA3 May 2021 14:22 UTC
39 points
33 comments2 min readEA link

Mo­gensen & MacAskill, ‘The paral­y­sis ar­gu­ment’

Pablo19 Jul 2021 14:04 UTC
15 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(quod.lib.umich.edu)

Chris­tian Tarsney on fu­ture bias and a pos­si­ble solu­tion to moral fanaticism

80000_Hours5 May 2021 19:38 UTC
7 points
0 comments114 min readEA link

A per­sonal take on longter­mist AI governance

lukeprog16 Jul 2021 22:08 UTC
170 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

Cli­mate-con­tin­gent Fi­nance, and A Gen­er­al­ized Mechanism for X-Risk Re­duc­tion Financing

johnjnay26 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC
6 points
1 comment26 min readEA link

2023 Open Philan­thropy AI Wor­ld­views Con­test: Odds of Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral In­tel­li­gence by 2043

srhoades1014 Mar 2023 20:32 UTC
19 points
0 comments46 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus’s Cli­mate Tip­ping Points Tour­na­ment En­ters Round 2

christian16 Mar 2023 18:48 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Es­ti­ma­tion Is the Best We Have

Introduction9 Sep 2014 16:15 UTC
9 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

[Event] Join Me­tac­u­lus for Fore­cast Fri­day on March 24th!

christian17 Mar 2023 22:47 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.eventbrite.com)

Es­ti­ma­tion for san­ity checks

NunoSempere21 Mar 2023 0:13 UTC
58 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Re­search Sum­mary: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Damien Laird22 Mar 2023 17:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Time-Sen­si­tive Op­por­tu­nity to Make $8000 EV in 4 hours in Mas­sachusetts via On­line Sports Betting

Joseph B.23 Mar 2023 10:41 UTC
12 points
30 comments11 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing what fu­ture peo­ple value: A terse in­tro­duc­tion to Ax­iolog­i­cal Futurism

Jim Buhler24 Mar 2023 19:15 UTC
51 points
10 comments3 min readEA link

Pro­posal: Con­nect Me­tac­u­lus to the EA Fo­rum to In­cen­tivize Bet­ter Research

Damien Laird25 Mar 2023 12:13 UTC
12 points
5 comments8 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Pro­posal + Demo: Con­nect Guessti­mate and Me­tac­u­lus and Turn them into Trees

Charlie_Guthmann25 Mar 2023 17:15 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

When Will We Spend Enough to Train Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Skye Nygaard28 Mar 2023 0:41 UTC
3 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

[Event] 📣 Join Me­tac­u­lus To­mor­row, March 31st, for Fore­cast Fri­day!

christian30 Mar 2023 20:58 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Cog­ni­tive sci­ence and failed AI fore­casts

Eleni_A18 Nov 2022 14:25 UTC
13 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC
30 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

$5k challenge to quan­tify the im­pact of 80,000 hours’ top ca­reer paths

NunoSempere23 Sep 2022 11:32 UTC
126 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] Is there a good web app for do­ing the “equiv­a­lent bet test” from “How To Mea­sure Any­thing”?

nonzerosum10 Nov 2022 14:17 UTC
14 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

A con­cern about the “evolu­tion­ary an­chor” of Ajeya Co­tra’s re­port on AI timelines.

NunoSempere16 Aug 2022 14:44 UTC
75 points
43 comments5 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Quan­tify­ing the im­pact of grant­mak­ing ca­reer paths

Joel Becker30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC
32 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

Beyond Sim­ple Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Sur­vival in a Com­plex In­ter­con­nected World

Gideon Futerman21 Nov 2022 14:35 UTC
82 points
67 comments21 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing value from pair­wise comparisons

Jonas Moss5 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(blog.jonasmoss.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

christian14 Oct 2022 17:00 UTC
65 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

An­nounc­ing Squig­glepy, a Python pack­age for Squiggle

Peter Wildeford19 Oct 2022 18:34 UTC
81 points
8 comments1 min readEA link
(github.com)

Su­perfore­cast­ing Long-Term Risks and Cli­mate Change

LuisEUrtubey19 Aug 2022 18:05 UTC
48 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Su­perfore­cast­ers

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 5:07 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Some re­search ideas in forecasting

Jaime Sevilla15 Nov 2022 19:47 UTC
78 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

The col­lab­o­ra­tive ex­plo­ra­tion of al­ter­na­tive fu­tures—a free to use on­line tool

rickjdavies26 Aug 2022 14:37 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­minder: you can donate your mana to char­ity!

Austin29 Nov 2022 18:30 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2022 0:23 UTC
147 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­search Ideas

Jaime Sevilla17 Nov 2022 17:37 UTC
71 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Pre­dic­tion mar­ket does not im­ply causation

Lizka10 Oct 2022 20:37 UTC
29 points
19 comments3 min readEA link
(dynomight.net)

Us­ing Sub­jec­tive Well-Be­ing to Es­ti­mate the Mo­ral Weights of Avert­ing Deaths and Re­duc­ing Poverty

MichaelPlant3 Aug 2020 16:17 UTC
97 points
8 comments35 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter for Oc­to­ber 2022

NunoSempere15 Nov 2022 17:31 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

Register your pre­dic­tions for 2023

Lizka26 Dec 2022 20:49 UTC
42 points
13 comments2 min readEA link

AI X-Risk: In­te­grat­ing on the Shoulders of Giants

TD_Pilditch1 Nov 2022 16:07 UTC
28 points
0 comments47 min readEA link

Prob­a­bil­ity of ex­tinc­tion for var­i­ous types of catastrophes

Vasco Grilo9 Oct 2022 15:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

The Pen­tagon claims China will likely have 1,500 nu­clear war­heads by 2035

Will Aldred12 Dec 2022 18:12 UTC
34 points
3 comments2 min readEA link
(media.defense.gov)

[Question] Is now a good time to ad­vo­cate for pre­dic­tion mar­ket gov­er­nance ex­per­i­ments in the UK?

John_Maxwell21 Oct 2022 11:51 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

When re­port­ing AI timelines, be clear who you’re defer­ring to

Sam Clarke10 Oct 2022 14:24 UTC
120 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC
46 points
9 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

COVID-19 in ru­ral Balochis­tan, Pak­istan: Two in­ter­views from May 2020

NunoSempere16 Dec 2022 11:33 UTC
22 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Track­ing the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempere9 Nov 2022 16:10 UTC
75 points
4 comments10 min readEA link

Com­par­ing top fore­cast­ers and do­main experts

Gavin6 Mar 2022 20:43 UTC
193 points
40 comments3 min readEA link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
170 points
30 comments3 min readEA link

Metafore­cast late 2022 up­date: GraphQL API, Charts, bet­ter in­fras­truc­ture be­hind the scenes.

NunoSempere4 Nov 2022 17:56 UTC
39 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Guessti­mate Al­gorithm for Med­i­cal Research

Elizabeth22 Sep 2022 21:40 UTC
37 points
2 comments7 min readEA link
(acesounderglass.com)

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
78 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

[job] Me­tac­u­lus has new soft­ware roles

dschwarz7 Nov 2022 21:19 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonex­is­tence On Aver­age?

Jordan Arel8 Dec 2022 21:44 UTC
25 points
10 comments14 min readEA link

A com­mon failure for foxes

RobBensinger14 Oct 2022 22:51 UTC
20 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Open Phil Grants

Charles Dillon 23 Jul 2021 14:00 UTC
57 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
132 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Cal­ibrate—New Chrome Ex­ten­sion for hid­ing num­bers so you can guess

ChanaMessinger7 Oct 2022 11:21 UTC
26 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Guessti­mate: An app for mak­ing de­ci­sions with con­fi­dence (in­ter­vals)

Ozzie Gooen30 Dec 2015 17:30 UTC
61 points
18 comments2 min readEA link

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
79 points
14 comments21 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of op­er­a­tions man­age­ment in high-im­pact organisations

Vasco Grilo27 Nov 2022 10:33 UTC
48 points
11 comments12 min readEA link

Pre­dict which posts will win the Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Con­test!

Austin27 Sep 2022 22:46 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

Owen Cotton-Barratt11 Dec 2014 11:49 UTC
23 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces The Million Pre­dic­tions Hackathon

christian10 Nov 2022 20:00 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

Biolog­i­cal An­chors ex­ter­nal re­view by Jen­nifer Lin (linkpost)

peterhartree30 Nov 2022 13:06 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC
52 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments5 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Fu­tur­ist pre­dic­tion meth­ods and accuracy

Linch15 Sep 2022 21:20 UTC
64 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(danluu.com)

Is AI fore­cast­ing a waste of effort on the mar­gin?

Emrik5 Nov 2022 0:41 UTC
9 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
96 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikos12 Dec 2022 10:05 UTC
74 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Bank: A way around cur­rent pre­dic­tion mar­ket reg­u­la­tions?

Gaurav Sett25 Jan 2022 4:21 UTC
25 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Es­ti­mat­ing the Aver­age Im­pact of an ARPA-E Grantmaker

charrin1 Dec 2022 6:34 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

“Tech­nolog­i­cal un­em­ploy­ment” AI vs. “most im­por­tant cen­tury” AI: how far apart?

Holden Karnofsky11 Oct 2022 4:50 UTC
15 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Begin­ner Tour­na­ment for New Forecasters

Anastasia6 Jan 2023 2:35 UTC
33 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

En­ter Scott Alexan­der’s Pre­dic­tion Competition

ChanaMessinger5 Jan 2023 20:52 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Year in Re­view: 2022

christian6 Jan 2023 1:23 UTC
25 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 16:36 UTC
32 points
1 comment15 min readEA link
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